Minyanville Professor Adam Katz dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
I've said it before: the second quarter is going to be the inverse of the first. Expectations going in were simply too high.
What I find interesting is that Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) have all taken down guidance due to the sluggishness they're starting to see in their businesses.
What the Street seems to be ignoring is that the dollar has been crushed for over a year now, which means that the currency tailwind is only getting weaker as the year drags on. If one uses $1.55 euro per dollar as a benchmark, the second-quarter effect was a 14% year-over-year currency tailwind.
In the third quarter, that drops to 10%; in the fourth, it will drop to 5%. Add in macroeconomic headwinds -- along with the fact that credit markets have been pushed back into a state of mild panic -- and it's a surefire recipe for a very tumultuous back half of the year.
I'm looking hard for reasons to be optimistic, but they seem to be thin on the ground. In the information technology (IT) sector, at least, we'll likely see a meaningful budget flush at the end of the year - if only because they'll be cut in a big way starting in 2009. This means that IT managers, if they even think they might need anything over the next year or so, need to use or lose whatever's left in their 2008 budgets come the fourth quarter.
This will create an environment where people will be calling the bottom for IT in the fourth quarter - but it's more likely to be the last hurrah before the bottom drops out.
Here's a quick recap of some additional earnings reports on Wednesday.
Beaverton, Ore.-based Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) said strong growth overseas helped boost its fourth-quarter profit by 12% to $490.5 million, or 98 cents per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected the company to earn 96 cents per share for the quarter. Shares fell more than 5% in after-hours trading to $62.15.
CKE Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: CKR) said its first-quarter profit climbed 8% to $16.6 million, or 31 cents per share, helped by a small increase in same-store sales at Carl's Jr. restaurants. Revenue fell 3% to $466.2 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected profit of 27 cents per share on revenue of $465.5 million. Shares fell 5 cents to $12.25 in after-hours trading.
Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) said its fiscal first-quarter profit rose 6.6% to $17.3 million, or 8 cents per share. Adjusted earnings were 18 cents per share. Revenue rose 32% to $156.6 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average predicted a profit of 18 cents per share on revenue of $153 million. Shares fell 19 cents in after-hours trading to $22.11.
General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) said its fourth-quarter profit dropped 17% to $185.2 million, or 53 cents per share. Adjusted earnings were 73 cents per share, which met Wall Street expectations. Sales increased 13% to $3.47 billion beating expectations. The company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year. Shares fell almost 2% to $61.19.
Open source software continues its torrid pace. In fact, according to a report from the 451 Group, the sector saw its biggest quarter for venture funding -- hitting $203.75 million, which is up from $100.4 million in the same period a year ago.
Why the interest? Well, I had a chance to interview Matthew Aslett, who is an analyst of enterprise software at the 451 Group:
Your take on the focus on open source?
VCs are interested in open source vendors because the open source development and distribution models reduce start-up costs and lower the barriers to entry. Some VCs have also cited increased code quality as a reason for investing in open source as the model enables a broader range of product testing and rapid innovation. There are a number of VCs that are sold on the open source model, and some have even stated that they would only consider investing in a software vendor if it was using and producing open source. Open source vendor revenues are lower than more established traditional rivals today, but most vendors are still in their infancy. Recent mergers and acquisitions involving open source vendors such as Zimbra, JBoss and MySQL have proved that the returns are there and are likely to encourage more VCs to look favorably on open source.
There's much concern in the information technology (IT) world. Might companies cut back on spending in light of the slowing economy?
Well, as for Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), the environment seems to be OK. For example, in Q4, the company posted a 27% increase in revenues to $141.5 million. What's more, bookings are bulging (above $200 million).
While RedHat has a strong business with its Linux offerings, the company is also seeing lots of traction with its middleware platform, known as JBoss. Interestingly enough, with Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) buyout of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS), there's been a surge in downloads of JBoss. Basically, customers want an alternative.
Going forward, Red Hat forecasts revenues of $665 million to $680 for the upcoming year. Earnings are expected to range from $0.78 to $0.82 per share.
And Red Hat recently purchased Amentra, which is a systems services company. Basically, the deal will allow Red Hat to continue to turbocharge its sales of JBoss.
Last week Forbes released its annual list of the fastest growing tech stocks, and it shouldn't be much of a surprise that Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) topped the list, with nearly $15 billion in sales, representing five-year sales growth of 155%, and 30% EPS growth. To make the list, companies had to have significant sales growth over the past year and five years, as well as a good earnings forecast for the next three to five years. Companies with significant legal problems or corporate governance issues were excluded.
So if, like Aaron Katsman, Georges Yared, and Jim Cramer, you are bullish on tech stocks, then there's plenty on the Forbes lists worth taking a look at.
Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) provides customers with the Linux open source computer operating system. It also provides a variety of compatible technical programs, software development tools, support services and training programs. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), with its Windows operating system, is Red Hat's chief competitor. The firm operates strategic alliances with Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD).
Red Hat pleased investors earlier in the month, when it reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 19 cents and revenues of $135.4 million. Analysts had been expecting 18 cents and $132.4 million. A sharp jump in subscriptions more than offset increased operating expenses. Management also provided strong guidance for Q4/FY08 and announced that former Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) COO James Whitehurst would take over as CEO on January 1. RHT shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Brokers recommend the shares with one "strong buy", six "buys," fourteen "holds" and one "sell." Analysts see a 23% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The RHT Price to Book ratio (4.27), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (26.28), Sales Growth rate (27.98%) and EPS Growth rate (171.43%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions own about 95% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the AMEX Internet Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $18.04 and $25.25. A stop-loss of $18.15 looks good here.
Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.
Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) shares are trading higher this morning the company posted third-quarter earnings of 10 cents per share on revenues of $135.4 million after the close yesterday. Analysts had expected earnings of 10 cents per share on revenues of $132.4 million. RHT also raised its fiscal 2008 revenue outlook to between $521 million to $523 million, up from $510 million to $520 million. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RHT.
After hitting a one-year low of $17.96 last December, the stock hit a one-year high of $25.25 in June. RHT opened this morning at $20.17. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.00 and a high of $20.68. As of 11:30, RHT is trading at $20.66, up $1.87 (9.9%). The chart for RHT looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) Hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just 3 months as long as RHT is above $17.50 at March expiration. Red Hat would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.
RHT hasn't been below 17.50 in over a yeat, and could lose up to 14.9% before this trade loses money.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RHT.
Historically, North Carolina was well-known for tobacco, furniture production, and textiles. Though the Tar Heel state is still a leading textiles employer, both textiles and furniture production have been diminished by offshoring; North Carolina is one of the states most affected by job loss to other parts of the world. The state also remains a leader in tobacco production, but concerns about the loss of government subsidies have prompted many farmers to switch to other crops or to quit farming altogether.
Today, Charlotte, North Carolina, is known as the second largest financial center in the U.S., and the Raleigh-Durham area is a tech and research district. Carlisle Cos. (NYSE: CSL), Commscope Inc. (NYSE: CTV), and Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) can be found in the state.
The Forbes 2007 list of the 100 best mid cap stocks included two from North Carolina. One of those is Charlotte-based Carlisle, a manufacturer of such diverse products as brakes for heavy-duty trucks, roofing materials, food service equipment, and aerospace cabling assemblies. Carlisle appointed a new CEO in June, and in August it marked its 31st consecutive year of dividend increases. Carlisle's five-year EPS growth rate of 19.4% is better than its industry average, but less than the S&P 500. Earnings missed Wall Street estimates in the first three quarters of 2007, the company reporting 84 cents per share in the recent third quarter report, missing expectations by three cents, but 14 cents more than in the same period last year. The share price began to slide even before Carlisle trimmed its full-year guidance again in October, to open at $39.43 on Friday, down from the 52-week high of $51.57 in August.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Rockwell Automation, Barclays, F5 Networks, Foundry Networks, AMR Corp., and Red Hat were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded Rockwell Automation Inc (NYSE: ROK) to Neutral from Overweight based on valuation, as the firm believes the recent credit market turbulence could make a material recapitalization less likely.
Bear Stearns downgraded shares of Barclays (NYSE: BCS) to Underperform from Peer Perform on valuation and expectations for losses in the company's Capital division.
Nollenberger downgraded shares of F5 Networks Inc (NASDAQ: FFIV) to Neutral from Buy, as they believe the company is transitioning from a "beat and raise" story to a "meet and maintain" story given the recent disruptions in the financial services sector and slowing growth in active web hosts on the net. The firm also downgraded shares of Foundry Networks Inc (NASDAQ: FDRY) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, seeing a well balanced risk/reward profile at current levels.
Soleil downgraded shares of AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's deteriorating revenue and non-fuel cost outlook.
Red Hat Inc (NYSE: RHT) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, citing lack of progress in execution.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) was downgraded at CIBC to Sector Performer from Outperformer.
Computerworld.com has reported that Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) set the release for their newly unveiled Global Desktop for some time in June 2007. The operating system which was jointly developed with Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), appears to be aimed at small business and local government users with the additional undertones of a desire to be the enabling operating system of choice for developing industrial nations.
Red Hat CTO Brian Stevens indicates that the company seeks to provide an operating system that can be more closely tuned to the individual customers needs. He is quoted at OSDir.com as stating: "Users, requirements and technologies have changed so dramatically over the past few years that the traditional one-size-fits-all desktop paradigm is simply exhausted."
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Visicu, Inc (EICU), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Apple Inc (AAPL) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) were some of today's more notable initiations:
Prudential started Visicu Inc (NASDAQ: EICU) with an Underweight rating and $7 target and said competitor substitute ICU modules, hesitant customers and patent challenges could impact future sales activity.
RBC initiated Ciena Corp (NASDAQ: CIEN) with an Outperform rating and $33 target based on improving demand outlook driven by growth in video and data-traffic.
W.R. Hambrecht initiated shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) with a Buy rating and $110 target based on the company's impressive desktop and notebook offering that continues to grow faster than the industry and command higher ASPs, an iPod franchise that dominates the category and represented almost half of total company revenues in the strongest quarter in its history, December 2006, among other things.
Deutsche Bank initiated Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) with a Buy rating and $46 target. The firm is bullish on cable sector prospects and sees upside from consumer and commercial telecom services and growth in advanced video services.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
RBC started F5 Networks, Inc (NASDAQ: FFIV) with an Outperform rating and $90 target.
Stanford initiated HealthSouth Corp (NYSE: HLS) with a Buy rating and $31 target.
Kenexa Corp (NASDAQ: KNXA) was started at Jefferies with a Hold rating and $36 target.
Stern Agee initiated Chico's FAS, Inc (NYSE: CHS) with a Buy rating and $26 target.
JP Morgan initiated Red Hat, Inc (NYSE: RHT) with a Neutral rating.
Minyanville Professor Adam Katz dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit 
Open source software continues its torrid pace. In fact, according to a report from the 
There's much concern in the information technology (IT) world. Might companies cut back on spending in light of the slowing economy?
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Last week Forbes released its annual list of the 
Analysts had been expecting 18 cents and $132.4 million. A sharp jump in subscriptions more than offset increased operating expenses. Management also provided strong guidance for Q4/FY08 and announced that former 
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