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Facebook Invades Netflix and RedBox's Turf

Facebook logoThe sale of DVDs is going the way of the PC -- both have seen their market share dwindling. In a world of instant information, streaming videos are replacing DVDs. Last year, DVD sales fell by 43% to $7.8 billion from $13.7 billion in 2006, The Wall Street Journal reported.

There is another accompanying trend that reinforces streaming videos. Customers are spending more time online. Add the multiplier of time spent on social networks and it's streaming video hands down.

Continue reading Facebook Invades Netflix and RedBox's Turf

Coinstar: Time To Buy or Sell?

Coinstar (CSTR) is, without a doubt, a very compelling stock to watch. I've been both bullish and bearish on the idea over the last several months. The one-year chart shows some fascinating price action. It makes one want to buy the name, but at the same time, I'm sure many investors wonder what the future will be like for the owner of the Redbox DVD-rental kiosk (i.e., how will it specifically adapt to the demand for digital delivery of movies?).

This week, TheFly mentioned that an analyst firm believes the stock will climb even higher, perhaps all the way to $80. That would represent a pretty impressive return based on where the quote is right now.

Continue reading Coinstar: Time To Buy or Sell?

Thoughts on Market Stories from the Week

Warren BuffettI'm going to offer up brief opinions on some of the events from the past trading week. Maybe you had your eye on one or two of them as well.

Playboy (PLA) reported a net loss in its second quarter. The red ink came out to 16 cents per share this time around; last year, the loss was 26 cents per share. You know what? It doesn't really matter if management was able to narrow the bleeding. Playboy is purely an arbitrage play now, with Hugh Hefner making a bid to take control of the business (a competing bid has been made by FriendFinder, which owns Penthouse). I would avoid making a buy here, since the arbitrage game can be a difficult one to win.

Continue reading Thoughts on Market Stories from the Week

Should You Avoid Coinstar?

coinstar earningsLast week, my colleague Elizabeth Harrow gave a summary of Coinstar's (CSTR) latest earnings report, as well as the stock's current technical characteristics. This is a tough situation to consider. The company, which owns the DVD-rental kiosk system known as Redbox and competes with Blockbuster and Netflix (NFLX), had been a great performer for much of the last year. Then, it started to slide at the beginning of June.

I've been bullish on the stock, although I have acknowledged the significant quantity of risk attached to it. After reading through the Q2 numbers, I wasn't completely displeased by them.

Continue reading Should You Avoid Coinstar?

Is Coinstar a Buy in a Risky Market?

I've been going through the news today, trying to find stock ideas. One company I've looked at from time to time is Coinstar (CSTR). With roughly one hour to go before the end of the session, shares of the coin-counting/DVD-rental entity were down 3.8% to $44.

Everything is down, however. So, is Coinstar, whose colleagues include Blockbuster (BBI) and Netflix (NFLX), simply a victim of a bad market? It very well could be. But the chart is somewhat choppy in certain respects. Over the last year, the business has seen an incredible rise in fortunes. However, the noise on the right side of the image does make an investor feel like the sky's the limit in terms of downside risk.

Continue reading Is Coinstar a Buy in a Risky Market?

Coinstar's Redbox Extends Deal with Paramount

Redbox logoCoinstar (CSTR - option chain) shares rose Wednesday after the company announced that it has extended its revenue sharing license agreement between Paramount Home Entertainment and Redbox Automated Retail, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Coinstar. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CSTR.

CSTR opened Wednesday at $53.50. In morning trading, the stock hit a low of $52.30 and a high of $54.76. As of 12:15, CSTR was trading at $53.17 up 0.67 (1.3%). The chart for CSTR looks bearish.

Continue reading Coinstar's Redbox Extends Deal with Paramount

Blockbuster's Terrible Q1

Blockbuster (BBI) is not a stock any sane investor should buy. First, it's under a buck. Second, it is currently down over 20% in afternoon trading, backed by significant volume. I'm seeing a price of just under 40 cents as I write this. Not a good situation.

Yet, I'm sure there are a fair amount of professional speculators out there making bets on the business. Hey, I can't predict the future, but I just don't see how anyone can take a chance on the shares. The one-year chart is terrible. And the most recent earnings report, released yesterday after the bell, is likewise a horrible sight to behold.

Continue reading Blockbuster's Terrible Q1

More Quarterly Releases: Coinstar, Colgate, and Procter & Gamble

Coinstar logoLet's have a look at a few earnings reports from earlier in the week. We'll check out two businesses operating in the arena of consumer products -- Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Procter & Gamble (PG) -- and one that is prospering from a crimson DVD-rental kiosk that has become all the rage -- Coinstar (CSTR).

We'll start with the latter concern first. Coinstar was one of Friday's great stock stories. It shot higher by 16%, backed by an incredible amount of volume. Investors are apparently counting on this one to go even higher. In fact, some analysts believe that the shares may eventually reach $60.

Continue reading More Quarterly Releases: Coinstar, Colgate, and Procter & Gamble

Is Blockbuster on the Verge of Bankruptcy?

TheStreet.com ran an article stating that Blockbuster (BBI) may be forced into bankruptcy if its cash flow doesn't improve and it can't restructure debt. According to the article, BBI's debt has been as high as $1 billion. In a filing with the SEC, BBI stated: "These factors raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern."

The company currently faces $855.9 million in debt and is in talks with Hollywood studios in hopes of reducing BBI's DVD costs. The company also stated that increased competition from the likes of Netflix (NFLX) and Redbox has severely hurt its market share.

Continue reading Is Blockbuster on the Verge of Bankruptcy?

Can Redbox Survive 28-Day Delays?

Redbox, the fast-growing DVD rental arm of coin-counting giant Coinstar (CSTR), recently agreed to a deal with Warner Bros. that will mean the chain gets access to the studios new DVD releases 28 days after they hit stores.

Other studios have restricted Redbox's access to new releases, so the company has acquired the DVDs from other outlets. But that's come at the expense of profitability and the company has had difficulty in securing enough copies.

Continue reading Can Redbox Survive 28-Day Delays?

Two Quarterly Releases: The Cheesecake Factory and Coinstar

I'm going to take a brief look at two quarterly reports from the past week. We've got a popular restaurant chain on the menu, as well as a DVD-rental business that is causing Hollywood a lot of headaches.

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) reported flat sales revenue in the fourth quarter. And when I say flat, I mean it: $400.6 million versus $400.4 million. On an adjusted basis, net income was 28 cents per share, representing an increase of 87%. This was four pennies ahead of estimates.

Continue reading Two Quarterly Releases: The Cheesecake Factory and Coinstar

More Pain for Blockbuster After Weak Forecast

On Tuesday evening, I took a different route home than usual, and drove past my local Blockbuster (BBI) store. It was hard not to notice the brand new "Store Closing" sign, and my carpool buddies and I briefly discussed the stiff competition the chain is facing from Netflix (NFLX) and smaller rival Redbox.

Well, in light of last night's updated fiscal-year outlook, I'm beginning to think I may have witnessed a real-life bad omen (feel free to email me for your own psychic reading). After Wednesday's closing bell, Blockbuster confessed that its preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year results were unexpectedly weak -- and as a result, shares of the penny stock are slipping ever closer to theoretical support at zero.

Continue reading More Pain for Blockbuster After Weak Forecast

Netflix Weak Today -- Sell Before 2010?

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is trading down today. Looks like investors aren't in the mood for the stock just before the new year begins. At the time of this writing, shares of the online DVD-rental concern were off by nearly 3%.

Kind of sad, when you think about it. Netflix is up big on the year. It was a great story of capital appreciation: buy the dips, and you made out. Whenever you thought the company was about to head into a downturn, it ended up proving you wrong. When things seemed just absolutely awful, like they did back in the first quarter, Netflix was resilient in the face of financial adversity.

Continue reading Netflix Weak Today -- Sell Before 2010?

Blockbuster: A bomb of a quarter

Blockbuster (BBI) is a terrible company and stock. After perusing the third-quarter report, published Friday after the bell, I don't see any reason to modify such a rough statement.

Sorry about that, but what else can I say about a huge revenue decline and a wider loss coupled with a story that continues to deteriorate? According to the Q3 earnings release, Blockbuster experienced a 21% drop on the top line. On an adjusted basis, the company lost 20 cents per share, compared to 9 cents per share in the comparable period a year ago. Helping to drive this abject performance was a 14% contraction in same-store sales.

Continue reading Blockbuster: A bomb of a quarter

Is Netflix siding with Hollywood?

So here's the deal. Hollywood studios have been increasing unhappy about the decline in DVD sales. One might paraphrase the Oscar-winning Network and say they are mad as heck, and can't take it anymore. In the first half of 2009, U.S. retail sales of DVDs dropped 13.5%, while DVD rentals rose by 8.3%. People are being non-committal with their televised entertainment, preferring to watch once and ship back rather than purchase for their permanent collection.

The studios' solution? Delay their audience's gratification, making new releases available only for purchase for the first few weeks. People counting on seeing new flicks on Netflix (NFLX) or via Coinstar's (CSTR) Redbox service would just have to wait ... or buy the movie, which is what studios are hoping for.

Continue reading Is Netflix siding with Hollywood?

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