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California Pizza Kitchen: Sideways Action Continues

California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI), which I first discussed here on May 16, 2009, at a price of $13.53, continues to exhibit sideways action at or near $16.50. But I still like the business model at this stage. Here's why.

In 2011, CPKI's performance should improve as the U.S. economic recovery progresses. Look for same-store sales (in this case, restaurants) to rise about 2% to 2.5%, after a 3.3% decline in 2010.

Continue reading California Pizza Kitchen: Sideways Action Continues

Take a Look at OpenTable

Despite the broader markets trading down sharply today, OpenTable shares traded higher.

Initializing a position at this point could be very risky, as the stock tends to move in big swings. However, the strength being demonstrated is very impressive, and shareholders do have the potential to be considerably rewarded.

Continue reading Take a Look at OpenTable

Wendy's/Arby's Group May Sell Arby's

It appears that Wendy's/Arby's (WEN) is about to have a roast beef sale. The company announced this morning that it is considering selling the struggling Arby's chain in order to focus more on the Wendy's hamburger chain.

Both sides of the company's eateries, Wendy's and Arby's, have seen sales slump, but Arby's has had the most problems thanks mainly to sandwiches that can cost more than five bucks. With such a price tag , those sandwiches weren't selling wel in the current economic atmosphere.

Continue reading Wendy's/Arby's Group May Sell Arby's

Sonic Beats Earnings Estimates Despite Weak Sales

Sonic (SONC) logoFast-food entity Sonic (SONC) closed Tuesday's regular session at a quote of $10.10. That represented a gain of a mere two pennies going into the after-the-bell earnings release. I guess investors weren't too excited by the prospects of the data.

Shares didn't do much in the extended session either, but popped about 4% at the opening bell Wednesday. For a longer-term perspective, take a look at the one-year chart. The stock seems to be doing its best to climb back to higher levels. Returning to the 52-week high of $13.11 would be nice.

Continue reading Sonic Beats Earnings Estimates Despite Weak Sales

McDonald's Down Today -- Time to Sell?

So, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is having a bit of trouble today getting a bid. With roughly ninety minutes left to the trading day, shares were off by 2.5% to $74.67. Volume was heavy.

What's going on? The stock has pulled back in very recent times after experiencing a great run-up; check out this chart to see what I mean. The 52-week low is $61.06 and the 52-week high is $80.94. Granted, the current selling pressure hasn't taken the company down to the depths of the yearly low, but it might be somewhat disappointing for shareholders. Is it now time to prepare for a down cycle in the equity?

Continue reading McDonald's Down Today -- Time to Sell?

McDonald's Earnings Rise on Beverages and International Growth

McDonald'sYet again, McDonald's (MCD) has asserted itself as the Big Mac Daddy of the fast-food world, reporting that its third-quarter earnings increased 10%. Proving that it does not rely solely on hamburgers and cheeseburgers, McDonald's attributed the impressive performance to blended-ice beverages and international growth.

McDonald's pulled in an impressive $1.29 per share ($1.39 billion) during the quarter, much better than last year's same-quarter results of $1.15 per share ($1.26 billion). Quarterly revenue also increased, checking in at $6.3 billion, which is 4.3% better than a year ago.

Continue reading McDonald's Earnings Rise on Beverages and International Growth

Chipotle Mexican Grill: Buy or Sell?

When I discussed Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) back in January, I was a bit hesitant on buying the stock. If you look at the following chart, you'll notice that I was completely wrong to be even the slightest bit bearish. The company closed on Friday at $168.31, not far from the 52-week high of $170.

According to our analyst calls from last Friday, Jefferies & Co. initiated the stock with a hold rating. The question now is, should an investor agree with such a rating? A hold may not be a technical sell, but it definitely makes you think twice about buying.

Continue reading Chipotle Mexican Grill: Buy or Sell?

Closing Bell: When a Loss Is a Loss (MT, MSO, CPKI, DJSP, APL, EK)

Yesterday was a mixed day, and today was just a down day. Durable goods were a disappointment in negative territory. Earnings were mixed. The negative bias of the Fed's Beige Book coincides with the sell-off at 2:00 PM but this still just brings in the notion that there is going to be a slow recovery, rather than any massive double-dip recession.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,497.88 -39.81 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,106.13 -7.71 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,264.56 -23.69 (-1.04%)

Continue reading Closing Bell: When a Loss Is a Loss (MT, MSO, CPKI, DJSP, APL, EK)

Options Update: SPDR Homebuilders Volatility Elevated At 39

SPDR Homebuilder (XHB) closed at $14.91. Goldman Sachs downgraded the homebuilders to neutral from buy. XHB August and September put option implied volatility was at 39, December at 40; above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Panera Bread (PNRA) is expected to report Q2 EPS in late July. PNRA August put option implied volatility was at 34, November is at 37, near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term (VXX) closed up 3.72% to 25.93.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Sonic: A Restaurant with Risks

There is no question that Sonic Corporation (SONC) has arguably the most distinct business model in the quick-serve restaurant industry. However, is this enough to validate an investment in the franchise?

After lowering its outlook for the fiscal year, from between $0.55 - $0.60 to $0.50 - $0.55 per share, Sonic announced on June 21, 2010 that its earnings for the third quarter were a disappointing $0.18 per share. This figure is lower than what analysts predicted by 1 to 4 cents per share, and even includes a 3 cent tax benefit. Without including special items, this marks a year over year decline of almost 40%.

Continue reading Sonic: A Restaurant with Risks

Sonic Drops on Q3 News

Sonic Corporation (SONC) is down this afternoon by over 5%. At the time I was checking quotes on the stock, I came up with a price of $8.80. Not too encouraging for shareholders, especially considering that the volume was active.

Shares of the fast-food entity have traded in a narrow range over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $8.07; the 52-week high is $13.11. The one-year chart shows an all-over-the-place situation; there's no smooth uptrend here. So, we need some fundamental guidance. The third-quarter report was released yesterday after the bell. What do the numbers say?

Continue reading Sonic Drops on Q3 News

Cheesecake Factory: The No-Compromise Menu Is Succeeding

Readers of this space know that restaurant chains are opposed, for several reasons. However, every once in a while a chain forms that exceeds the segment's lamentable cuisine offerings, and still manages to make a buck.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE), first discussed here on June 25, 2009 at a price of $16.30, is one.

The best financial reason to hold on to CAKE? The U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' era has hit the restaurant sector hard, and there will be restaurant chain casualties, but Cheesecake won't be one. Don't expect anything spectacular revenue-wise from CAKE in FY2010 -- flattish to slightly higher same store sales, and only a slight increase in revenue, with most likely a grand total of three -- count 'em, three -- new restaurants opened under its upscale casual dining format.

Continue reading Cheesecake Factory: The No-Compromise Menu Is Succeeding

Should You Add Denny's to Your Portfolio?

Denny's Corporation (DENN), a well-known casual restaurant chain, was up over 8% going into the company's earnings report on Monday. Volume wasn't so impressive, however. Still, now that the release is out, what should we think about the prospects for the stock?

Well, let's briefly review the progress of the shares over the last twelve months. The following chart shows an equity that's had something of a volatile run this past year. The 52-week low is $2.07, and the 52-week high is $3.99. Yep, we're talking about a single-digit price. You've got to be careful when dealing with this spectrum of investing; low-priced equities can be risky.

Continue reading Should You Add Denny's to Your Portfolio?

Burger King: Decent Q3, but Sector Concerns Persist

At least initially, investors were impressed by hamburger chain Burger King's (BKC) beat of Wall Street's third quarter earnings estimate, 30 cents compared to the First Call estimate of 29 cents, with its shares jumping 3.5% to $21.41 on Thursday at mid-day.

Further, investors appeared to cut Burger King some slack, as the winter quarter's severe weather artificially depressed traffic. Chief Executive Officer John Chidsey said sales increased in March and were slightly higher in April, although they were still lower compared to a year ago. Burger King earned 34 cents in the third quarter of fiscal 2009.

Continue reading Burger King: Decent Q3, but Sector Concerns Persist

Starbucks Hopes Summer Menu Heats Up Sales

starbucks frappucinoSeattle coffee icon Starbucks (SBUX) has been on the resurgence in 2010 after consumers fled during the Great Recession. In order to keep the profits percolating, SBUX is looking to roll out a fresh new menu of Frappucinos and iced coffee for the hot summer months.

Growth is crucial for SBUX stock now after it has weathered the worst of the economic downturn. Notable achievements over the past few months include:

  • The announcement of the first-ever cash dividend to SBUX stock owners.
  • Gains of about 220% in Starbucks shares since the 2009 lows, from $8.24 on March 9, 2009, to the mid-$26 range today.
  • Four straight earnings reports topping Wall Street forecasts, with an average earnings surprise of almost 20%.
But despite these strides, SBUX stock is still down about 33% from its 2006 peak at about $40 a share. And the coffee marketplace has become increasingly crowded in the intervening years, so returning to its lofty perch as the coffee queen is no easy task.

Continue reading Starbucks Hopes Summer Menu Heats Up Sales

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DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 03:28 PM

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