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Look for Cheesecake Factory to be among the success stories when the recession ends

The U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' era will lead to many casualties in the restaurant chain sector, but The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) won't be one, which is why I'm reiterating my Buy rating for CAKE, first recommended on June 25, 2009 at a price of $16.30.

Don't expect anything spectacular from CAKE in FY2009 -- flattish to slightly higher same store sales, and only a slight increase in revenue, with most likely a net zero increase in restaurants operated. The aforementioned doesn't sound like much, but at the retail/restaurant chain end of the commerce spectrum, survival is the name of the game under these economic conditions, and Cheesecake Factory will.

Continue reading Look for Cheesecake Factory to be among the success stories when the recession ends

Yum! Brands beats estimates in Q3, but Pizza Hut is not so yummy

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), which competes with McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), and Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN) for the right to feed consumers on the go around the world, issued a Q3 report after the bell on Tuesday that was decent in many respects. Earnings per share on an adjusted basis increased over 20% to 70 cents. This performance absolutely embarrassed the analysts, who were looking for a mere 58 cents per share according to our earnings preview.

So, that was one of the decent parts. Actually, I'd say it was a little more than decent. But, unfortunately, the top line didn't grow. Total revenues actually declined 2%.

Continue reading Yum! Brands beats estimates in Q3, but Pizza Hut is not so yummy

Buy Yum! Brands ahead of earnings?

At the time of this writing, shares of Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), a company that competes with McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), and Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), were trading higher by well over 4%. Volume was doing well, too. Interestingly enough, Yum! Brands will be reporting Q3 earnings on Tuesday, October 6, after the bell. Does this mean that you should buy in ahead of the release?

On the surface, I suppose the market is telling you that Yum! Brands would indeed make a good earnings trade. Not only is the stock up nicely this afternoon, but it isn't too far from a 52-week high.

Continue reading Buy Yum! Brands ahead of earnings?

McDonald's: Interesting yield?

If you're trying to get your head around some stock strategies for the upcoming fall trading season, you might want to consider dividend yields. Volatility could increase since we've had such a run-up in many equities, so thinking about payouts is probably advisable.

I was looking around for some higher-yielding blue chips and became interested in McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). As of last Friday's closing price, McDonald's yields almost 3.6% on an annual basis. It pays out 50 cents per share per quarter according to its corporate website.

Continue reading McDonald's: Interesting yield?

Ruby Tuesday rallied yesterday after impressive earnings beat

Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) reported Q4 results on Tuesday (hey, what day did you expect the company to do it on?) after the bell. By the looks of the price action going into the report, as well as the price action after the report, you would have thought that the results were incredible. They were, in terms of an earnings beat, but other aspects of the report gave me pause.

Ruby Tuesday made 28 cents per diluted share during the fourth quarter. According to Reuters, analysts were only looking for 20 cents of per-share profit. Okay, so we know why Wall Street was so excited. Beating by 8 cents is impressive.

Continue reading Ruby Tuesday rallied yesterday after impressive earnings beat

The Cheesecake Factory: A decent menu in a lamentable sector

It goes without saying that, in general, I believe one of the worst American inventions has been the restaurant chain. Chains represent a vast wasteland, from a culinary standpoint, along with other shortcomings. The citizens of France wonder how Americans tolerate such horrible dining options. Comment les Américains tolèrent de tels aliments? Moreover, in the U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' era, several chains are destined to close.

But one or two chains represent an exception to the above, and The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) is one. Here's why:

Continue reading The Cheesecake Factory: A decent menu in a lamentable sector

Darden Restaurants: A survivor

The U.S. restaurant sector certainly has taken it on the chin as a result of the recession, which has shifted Americans into "frugal consumer" mode.

In general, analysts are understandably bearish on the sector, and so am I, but there are exceptions, and Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) is one. Darden's shares have pulled-back $10 recently to roughly $33 and that sets up a decent entry point. Here's why:

Continue reading Darden Restaurants: A survivor

CKE Restaurants beats expectations despite a 13% earnings drop

Restaurant operator CKE Restaurants (NYSE: CKR) reported first-quarter earnings of 26 cents per share after the closing bell yesterday. While the results were five cents shy of last year's results, they topped the consensus estimate by a penny per share. Quarterly revenue totaled $446.8 million, far better than the Street's estimate calling for $343.1 million.

The company also announced that same-store sales dropped 5.2% during the latest four-week period. At the company's Carl's Jr. restaurants, sales dropped 7.1%, while Hardee's saw a drop of 2.7%.

Continue reading CKE Restaurants beats expectations despite a 13% earnings drop

Sonic beats Wall Street, but sales are sagging

Sonic (NASDAQ: SONC), a fast-food chain whose colleagues include Burger King (NYSE: BKC), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday after the bell. The shares have done well today on the news. As I write this, Sonic's stock is up well over 12% in afternoon trading. Volume is great. Do you want to get in on the action?

Sonic said it earned an adjusted 24 cents per share. This article reported expectations as being $0.20 per share, so management beat the bottom line by a nice amount. We'll throw that result on the positive side of the line.

Continue reading Sonic beats Wall Street, but sales are sagging

Darden posts fourth-quarter earnings, can it boost the shares?

Restaurateur, Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) announced that fourth-quarter net income checked in at 87 cents per share, up from 71 cents per share a year ago. The company also reported that sales increased to $1.97 billion from $1.82 billion. The eatery operator's sales were boosted by an extra week of business in the most recent quarter.

In a statement, the company's CEO Clarence Otis noted that the company is hoping for an improvement in overall restaurant industry conditions and sales trends, but the current challenging environment is likely to continue through all of fiscal 2010. Otis stated that "there are reasons to believe there might be some favorable changes. However, given the current level of uncertainty, we think it's prudent to be cautious in developing our plans for the year."

Continue reading Darden posts fourth-quarter earnings, can it boost the shares?

More signs of trouble at Starbucks: No more decaf in the afternoon, McCafe gains

Feel like a nice cup of decaf right about now? Don't plan on getting it at Starbucks. Popular blogger (and newspaper doomsayer) Jeff Jarvis is complaining about a new but not well publicized Starbucks policy to stop brewing fresh decaf coffee after the morning rush.

Continue reading More signs of trouble at Starbucks: No more decaf in the afternoon, McCafe gains

Full page ad in NYT proves it: Starbucks is in real trouble

On the back page of my Sunday New York Times I found a full-page four-color ad from Starbucks Corporation (NYS: SBUX). The big, bold type at the top of the ad said "They Want You To Think Coffee is Coffee. Well, It's Not Just Coffee. It's Starbucks." No, actually its just coffee. Really, really expensive coffee that was perfect for the frothy past three decades but far less so now. And when these types of pathetic bleats for help issue forth from massive lifestyle corporations, its best to start the Doomsday Clock.

Continue reading Full page ad in NYT proves it: Starbucks is in real trouble

Fast Food Wars #2: McDonald's looks strong on global numbers, new menu, smart management

This is the second post in Fast Food Wars, a look at the players in this unhealthy business that has traditionally garnered healthy returns in down times as Americans tank up on fries and burgers slathered with secret sauce.

Last week we looked at Burger King (NYSE: BKC), today we turn to Mickey D's, the grand-daddy of them all. McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD ) boasts over 35,000 locations (franchised and company owned) in 100 countries.

Continue reading Fast Food Wars #2: McDonald's looks strong on global numbers, new menu, smart management

Buffalo Wild Wings: Fatten you up?

While customers may not realize how appropriate it is to be picking meat off the bones of chicken wings in hard times (I'll bet many a Depression-era cook made two chicken wings into a whole family's meal), investors are happily cashing in on the meaty prospects of Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) this week. After reporting a shocker of a quarter -- up 28.7% over the year-earlier quarter with $7.7 million, or $0.43 per share, on revenue $121.2 million -- investors were heartened. It was just three months ago that BWLD missed expectations with net income of $4.6 million, or $0.25 per share, on revenues of $106.1 million. Same-store sales at company-owned stores were up 6.8% in the third quarter compared to a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter.

Continue reading Buffalo Wild Wings: Fatten you up?

No eating your CAKE in this market

More consumers are being lured away from pricier eateries by fast food joints and a bevy of ready-made meals in their local grocers that need nothing more than a quick 20 minutes in the oven. And it's taking a big toll on higher-priced chains such as Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE).

CAKE has seen its fortunes slip along with the economy, and it's been a perfect storm of bad news for some time now.

First it was high food and gasoline prices that initially crushed the stock. Customers began worrying about filling their SUVs instead of dining out. At the same time, high input costs shrank restaurant margins.

Continue reading No eating your CAKE in this market

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DJIA+203.5210,226.94
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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 03:08 AM

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