Santa hasn't even been tugged down Central Park West yet, and Wal-Mart (WMT) is already slashing its prices. The market among major retailers is intensifying, with many offering products as loss leaders in order to entice customers into the store (physical or otherwise) and boost their basket sizes. Along with Target (TGT) and Amazon (AMZN), Walmart is slashing DVD prices, the same tactic it's using with books.

Retailers are rushing to undercut each other this year, which is causing prices to spiral down quickly. When Walmart announced reduced prices on several titles to $10, Amazon followed at $9.99, with Walmart stepping back in at $9.98.

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

Once upon a time, retailers measured success by the number of people walking by in the mall, how many entered the store, the percentage they spent, and basket size. Now, a world of zeroes and ones has changed their perspective entirely. Social media is expected to be the star during the coming holiday season, with retailers pushing Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter content to get in front of consumers and affect either online or in-store purchases. Smaller Christmas budgets are expected, so the fight is on to garner as large a share as possible of a shrinking pie.

Of course, nobody would come out and say, "Social media is nonsense, and I'm not getting anything for my investment." So, when the likes of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), and Target (NYSE: TGT) say that social media is connecting them with their customers and leading to more effective campaigns and product launches, do take it with a grain of salt. What can't be ignored, however, is that they're committing more resources to social media marketing, even though it's still far too soon to tell if it will be effective.

Small book retailers were buying in bulk from major online booksellers because they could really save some money. One was buying up to 70 copies of a particular title -- it was $5 less a pop from the big guys than it would have been from the publisher. Finally, however, the big retailers have become wise to the trend and taken action, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Target (NYSE: TGT) have decided to cap the number of books customers can buy online, a measure intended to prevent smaller competitors from treating them as partners. Walmart is limiting customers to two copies of a particular book, with Amazon placing the border at three and Target at five.

Toys R Us bought FAO Schwarz in May and is now ready to do something interesting with it.

It's a pretty bold move for a tough retail market. Toys R Us is opening FAO Schwarz boutiques in some of its stores. It's also relaunching the upscale toy seller's website, FAO.com. A year ago, this would have been suicide, but now, it might work out. With retailers in every sector fighting for an edge, this move may beef up the Toys R Us in-store experience, with the online play helping it reach higher-spending consumers that may not have access to an FAO brick-and-mortar spot.

It's going to get worse before it gets better, according to Stone & McCarthy Research. Early 2010 has "the more troublesome outlook," as the economy will have to walk on its own, the research firm says. This year, it's had a pair of crutches: tax credits for first-time home buyers and the cash-for-clunkers program. So, if the stimulus hasn't taken hold by the end of the year, the first quarter could be a bruiser.

The firm adds that "continued growth in aggregate demand" is needed, bringing the discussion back to consumer spending . . . which is where it will always land. We're likely to see the 3.2% growth rate from July through September drop to 2.4% at the end of the year because the crutches will have been gone. And, let's not forget that unemployment is expected to break the 10% level next year.

We've watched stock market numbers bounce around for two years. Unemployment stats have served as unpleasant reminders that, for some, leading indicators haven't translated to reality. We look for so many ways to understand the brutal economic environment with which we've had to contend, and all the choices can make your head spin. So, let's make it simple. Here are eight ways to tack a label onto the financial world in which we live.

1. Lost market value
Total stock market losses from October 2007's top to March 2009's bottom: $11.2 trillion
Total gains in the stock market since the bottom: $4.6 trillion
Lost ground: $6.6 trillion

2. Bad days
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that happened in 2008, by point drops: 60%
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the DJIA that happened in 2008, by percentage drops: 30%

3. Mutual funds
Value of mutual fund assets at the end of 2007: $6.5 trillion
... and a year later: $3.7 million
Lost value: $2.8 trillion

But, it got a little better at the end of August 2009: $4.5 trillion (value of assets)

Consumers are finally spending more, with September posting the first gain in more than a year. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) found that retail sales inched 0.1% higher last month. It doesn't seem like much, but a gain when you anticipate a fall is good news magnified. But, it came at the expense of great deals and other tools to entice somewhat hesitant customers into stores.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) reported sales increases in September for stores open more than a year. J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M) and Target (NYSE: TGT) posted declines, but they were better than expected. Delayed school openings thanks to a late Labor Day helped push to September sales that might have occurred in August otherwise.

Of course, all eyes are on the coming holiday season. The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. consumer spending of $437.6 billion – up only slightly from $433.7 billion four years ago. So, we still have a lot of ground to make up before we can celebrate a recovery. As long as the situation is staying steady, though, we'll at least have a solid starting point.

September same-store sales are rolling in this Thursday morning, and the news for the teen/tween retailers may hold some hope. Leading off the clothing genre is American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), which posted perhaps the best news in the group. Of course, by best news I mean that AEO's sales didn't drop as much as people predicted.

The retailer had flat same-store sales in September, at the top end of its forecast range for a drop of 4.1% to flat sales. Thing is, these results will probably spur a bit of a rally for the stock, mainly because they weren't as bad as they could have been.

Consumer debt levels fell again in August for the seventh month in a row. Facing continued instability in the job market, people are paying down their debt, as a way to protect themselves. Savings are up, and borrowing is down – which could weaken the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity in the United States.

Total consumer debt outstanding dropped by $12 billion in August, according to the Federal Reserve, reflecting an annualized rate of 5.8%. Reality outpaced Wall Street's expectations, which were around $10 billion. In July, consumer debt outstanding fell $19 billion (9.1%), which was the largest in hard-dollar terms since 1943 and on a percentage basis since June 1975's 16.3%.

While consumer fear is playing a significant role, as a touchy housing market and dicey job situation leave little to lean on, the banks are also responsible for the change in direction. They aren't lending as easily, with stricter standards limiting the amount of credit available to consumers. You can't spend what you can't borrow.

MasterCard Advisors (NYSE: MA) service SpendingPulse says luxury and electronics sales headed upward last month, in a pleasant deviation from what became the norm all too long ago. A few other product categories posted gains as well – showing stability, if not a recovery. But, at this stage of the game, we'll take what we can get, right?

Luxury sales, not including jewelry, gained 3.4% year-over-year – that's an increase of $891 million. Last September, luxury goods suffered a 9.4% decline. Yet, this category is still below its September 2005 level of $94 million. Jewelry sales gained 1.2% relative to last year, compared to a year-over-year decline of 5.8% a year ago. Compared to apparel sales, this is a profound turn. In September 2008, the clothing category was off 5.7%, and this September, it was down only 2.9%.

The new Neiman Marcus Christmas Book looks a bit different this year. Yes, it's still geared toward the typical Neiman clientele, but it reflects the fact that the usual customers may not be doing as well -- or spending as much -- this year as they did last year. The retailer is facing the fact that it will have to sell lower-priced items this Christmas, because that's what the public will have to buy (even the wealthy corner of the public).

Close to half the gifts listed in the 83rd edition of the Neiman Christmas catalog cost less than $250, and some of them are actually practical (though a bit pricey for most people). In the past, the number of gifts at this price-point would be in the 30% to 40% range.

Costco's (NASDAQ: COST) profits are off 6% for its fiscal fourth quarter. A stronger dollar and increased employee benefits costs are cited as the reasons. Nonetheless, the retailer did beat analyst expectations.

The company, which operates warehouse clubs, pulled in earnings of $374 million (85 cents per share) for the quarter ending August 30, 2009. While this is down from $398 million (90 cents per share) a year earlier, it was good enough to top the 77 cents per share that analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast.

In the past, it has been the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii or Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone creating holiday hype -- what product will it be this year?

Quite honestly, none. The tech realm is still looking for the next big holiday hit. This is why it appears that we could be facing a holiday season full of buy-one-get-one-free specials or pushy salespeople trying to get you to allow their company to install the new flat-panel TV or add ons that will help integrate your home entertainment system.

So, what does this mean for electronics retailers?

Retail sales gained a seasonally-adjusted 2.7% in August, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. This follows a 0.2% decline in July. The August results beat analyst expectations soundly, lending support to talk of a recovery. The Cash for Clunkers program is cited as contributing to August sales.

Without autos, sales increased 1.1%, still ahead of the anticipated 0.4% gain. Take gas out of the measure, as well, and retail sales grew 0.6%.

Inventories fell in July, for the twelfth month in a row, with the 1% decline a tad higher than the 0.9% anticipated by many economists.