There are two competing positions on consumer sentiment right now. One is that it turned south last week, as people worried about their jobs – always a bad sign for spending. The other is that consumer sentiment didn't crap out in July: it fizzled in May. So, it's not a question of whether consumers aren't confident in the U.S. economic machine, it's just a matter of when the collective mood changed.

The July camp is set up around the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which makes now the weakest point for consumer sentiment since March. Those who favor May look to domestic demand for foreign goods, which went soft two months ago, bringing the monthly trade deficit to its narrowest since 1999. The U.S. trade gap unexpectedly tightened to $26 billion in May, with exports up 1.6% and imports down 0.6%, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The media has been filled with reports about how poorly the advertising at The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) has been doing. The company has $400 million in debt due next year. It is trying to sell its part of the parent company of The Boston Red Sox. NYT is even attempting to mortgage its headquarters building.

Bringing in new money won't do much long-term if revenue keeps falling. Cutting costs would.

One of the sections of The New York Times that must be costly to run is its business section. Looking at all the bylines, the staff must be in the dozens. But, a great deal of what runs in the business pages is not unique. Most of its is covered by Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, or The Wall Street Journal.

As the cost of being in the news business stays high and revenue drops, networks are pooling reporting resources. Newspapers are sharing coverage of certain geographic areas. Websites such as Politico are offering newspapers coverage of Washington to save money on having bureaus following the federal government.

The New York Times might be better off if it cut a deal with Bloomberg or the FT to handle its business section. The paper would still be competitive with The Wall Street Journal, and the move might be the start of a system to save a lot more money by doing something similar with other parts of the Times.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

The timing of the Thomson-Reuters merger could not have been worse as many of their biggest customers on Wall Street are struggling. Now, Thomson Reuters Corporation (NYSE: TRI) is trying to make the best of a bad situation. Investors may like what they are seeing today but they won't over the long term.

Shares of Thomson Reuters are trading up even though the financial information company reported disappointing earnings. The stock is rallying following an earlier sell-off. Revenue was $3.13 billion, a 73% rise but short of the $3.32 billion analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expected. The results benefited from the merger. Earnings were $172 million, or 22 cents per share, down from $375 million, or 58 cents per share a year earlier.

Chief Executive Tom Glocer told reporters that financial services markets "are likely to remain challenging through at least the end of the year." That means that big clients are going to be asking for big discounts. Bloomberg, my former employer and the company's biggest rival, has usually been able to resist this temptation.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Thomson Reuters and Heritage-Crystal Clean were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. The firm sees risk to 2008 Street estimates given the consumer slowdown in the U.S. and potential ASP and margin pressure as channel inventory is worked down.
  
• Morgan Stanley assumed Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) with an Underweight rating and expects revenue growth in the company's financial business to slow sharply into 2009.
  
• William Blair believes Heritage-Crystal Clean (NASDAQ: HCCI) has the opportunity to gain market share over the next several years as a result of its differentiated parts-cleaning programs, strong sales organization, and experienced management team. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Lehman initiated Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) with Equal Weight ratings and targets of $20 and $17 and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) with Overweight ratings and targets of $195, $144 and $59, respectively.
  
• Pacific Growth started Spectranetics (NASDAQ: SPNC) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Merrill reinstated Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) with Buy ratings and price targets of $110, $105 and $125, respectively.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In a step toward expanding its reach into China, UCBH Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UCBH) has acquired a full stake in Shanghai-based Business Development Bank in a deal valued at $205M, the Wall Street Journal reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

• After creating an agreement with the International Herald Tribune, Reuters Group Plc (NASDAQ: RTRSY) is reportedly in discussion for a similar agreement with The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT), the UK Times reported.

WEBSITES:

• In an interview with Bloomberg, E.I du Pont de Nemours and Company's (NYSE: DD) CEO Charles Holiday said he believes the U.S. economy will be able to avoid a recession in 2008.
• According to "people familiar with the plan," Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) may sell its Japanese unit in an effort to help cut global costs due to a slump in sales and lower earnings forecast, Bloomberg reported.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Next year Nestle USA will sell Jamba Inc's (NASDAQ: JMBA) Jamba Juice at stores in eight states in the western U.S., according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Last May Canadian information provider The Thomson Corporation (NYSE: TOC) bought Reuters Group Plc (NASDAQ: RTRSY) for GBP8.7B. While the deal was beneficial to Reuters, the credit crunch could have a severe impact on its bottom line over the next few years, the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" said.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The Detroit News reported that the United Auto Workers signed a new contract with Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F).

WEB SITES:

• Jeffrey Zucker, General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal media unit would be interested in DreamWorks SKG if it were to become available, Bloomberg reported.
• According to 21st Century Business Herald's website, Baosteel Group's Chairman, Xu Lejiang, said the company is considering making a bid for Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP).

CNN Worldwide, a part of the Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) franchise, is expanding its staff of correspondents by 10% as it looks to increase its original content. The investment is said to be under $10 million and will add about 16 correspondents to its staff of 150.

About two months ago, CNN announced it was abandoning the relationship with Reuters Group PLC (NASDAQ:RTRSY) and would instead bolster its own news capabilities. The idea is to capture more advertising by owning the content as the content can simultaneously be pushed out over multiple distribution platforms.

What is interesting here, is that the focus is in the United Arab Emirates, where CNN operates CNN.com Arabic. It will use some of the investment for a digital production unit in London, as well as to increase its staff in Hong Kong. Mexico City and Johannesburg. Additional staff, and news operations are being planned in Belgium, Poland, India, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Kenya, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Reuters (NASDAQ:RTRSY) has a blog section at the bottom of most business stories at Reuters.com. It is called Business Blog Posts, and it is powered by Blogburst. Blogburst is part of blog syndication service Pluck. And, Reuters is one of Pluck's owners.

Complicated? Yes.

The business blogs that Reuters runs are mostly small, one-person operations like Phil's Stock World and Captain Currency. Some, like The Kirk Report and Bill Cara, are well regarded. But, Reuters does them a disservice. It keeps the traffic for their content when it runs on Reuters.com. So, Reuters gets the ad revenue on those pages. The bloggers get their names on Reuters, and a link back to their sites, which is probably rarely used.

It is interesting to note that none of the big business blog sites like SeekingAlpha or Ticker Sense run in the Reuters program. They understand that the deal is good for Reuters and bad for the blogs. They aren't prepared to let Reuters compete with them for eyeballs using their own blog content.

It is a shame that Reuters has handled bloggers this way. Many other media outlets like WSJ.com and TheStreet.com comment on blogs but send traffic to the bloggers. Reuters has decided not to give the little guy a leg up.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St. which was approached about the Reuters program and turned the company down.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Refiners, MasTec, Cognos, Forest Labs and Reuters Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Bernstein upgraded shares of Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO), Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO), Sunoco Incorporated (NYSE: SUN) and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) to Market Perform from Underperform.
• MasTec Incorporated (NYSE: MTZ) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Think Equity and to Buy from Hold at SMH Capital on valuation following yesterday's sell-off.
• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Cognos Incorporated (NASDAQ: COGN) to Overweight from Neutral citing solid end demand, expanded sales capacity, indications that C8 adoption should see an uptick, and the Applix Inc (NASDAQ: APLX) acquisition.
• Forest Laboratories Inc (NYSE: FRX) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, as the firm believes Forest's victory in the Lexapro patent case eliminates a major overhang and returns the focus to the company's pipeline.
• Lehman upgraded shares of Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Overweight from Equal Weight to reflect benefits from the company's merger with Thomson Corporation (NYSE: TOC).

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS upgraded shares of General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS) to Buy from Neutral.
• Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Markets.
• CIBC World Markets upgraded EDO Corporation (NYSE: EDO) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer.
• Bernstein upgraded shares of Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Outperform from Market Perform and shares of Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Market Perform from Underperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lowe's (LOW), Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB), Campbell Soup (CPB), Reuters Group (RTRSY) and Netease.com (NTES) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) to Overweight from Neutral based on improved risk/return and conservative near-term estimates. UBS upgraded Lowe's to Buy from sell on valuation.

• Cooper Tire & Rubber (NYSE: CTB) was upgraded to Buy from Sell, as the firm thinks Copper is benefiting from surging demand for tires in Asia and considers the recent weakness a buying opportunity.

• UBS upgraded shares of Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) to Buy from Neutral, citing expected growth acceleration, productivity savings, and attractive valuation.

• Deutsche Bank is positive on the Thomson (TOC)-Reuters combination and expected synergies, upgrading Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Buy from Hold.

• Netease.com (NASDAQ: NTES) was upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna based on valuation and checks that indicate better than expected performance of Westward Journey Online III...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Georgia Gulf (NYSE: GGC) was raised to Neutral from Sell.

• US Airways (NYSE: LCC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

• Banc of America upgraded Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU) to Buy from Neutral.

• Think Equity upgraded Jazz Technologies (AMEX: JAZ) to Buy from Source of Funds.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

In a sign of the increasing importance of high-end financial blogs, Reuters Group Plc (NASDAQ: RTRSY) is starting a new network of the sites. Or, it could be that the Reuters business development people have down time because of its upcoming purchase by Thomson Corp. (NYSE: TOC).

The offer that Reuters is making to a number of high-end blogs is that it will link to the participating sites from Reuters.com, offer free access to selected Reuters Headlines (RSS or Headline Wizard) and Reuters Video Player to publish Reuters News, and get 30% of an advertising program that the big financial services company will manage.

In return, each blog agrees to execute contracts with comScore and NetRatings to assign its traffic to Reuters.com. NetRatings ranks Reuters.com as the No.7 financial website with unique visitors of 6.1 million in May.

Reuters may be trying to match blog initiatives at media outlets including FT.com, WSJ.com, and AOL.com.

Either Reuters has a very high regard for financial blogs or it needs to pump up its audience ratings.

Disclosure: 24/7 Wall St. was approached by Reuters about this opportunity.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a principal at 24/7 Wall St.

The Bancroft family, which controls the voting block of stock in Dow Jones (NYSE: DJ) has agreed to meet with News Corp (NYSE: NWS) to discuss its $5 billion offer. Earlier in the week, one of the largest Dow Jones shareholders, T Rowe Price, suggested that the company take the offer. The institutional investing firm reasoned that company management did not have a plan to get shares up to $60, the value of Murdoch's offer.

Outsiders might view the change of heart on the part of the Bancrofts as simply an acknowledgment of their duty to the company's other shareholders.

But, it can also be seen in another light, Shares in Dow Jones have not done well since 2001. T Rowe Price is right. The management has no viable plan to substantially increase shareholder value, and it has not had one at any time in the recent past.

As print advertising and circulation rose, Dow Jones did launch online versions of its products. The Dow Jones Newswires have done well, but still face increasingly difficult competition from Reuters (NASDAQ: RTRSY) and Bloomberg. The company did not launch any new business that might transform its financials or make any acquisitions that might change the face of the company.

And so, it comes to this.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

The British newspaper, The Independent, reports that Reuters is a heart beat from being sold to Thomson (NYSE: TOC). According to its report, the "Reuters Founders Share Company, the trust that acts as guardian to the editorial independence of Reuters Group Plc" is prepared to approve the deal. Reuters has been independent since it was founded in 1850.

Thomson's bid sent the Reuters (NYSE: RTRSY) ADRs from below $60 to over $77. While the premium is nowhere near the one that News Corp (NYSE: NWS) has offered for Dow Jones (NYSE: DJ), Thomson is family controlled, and the Reuters CEO would run the combined company.

A combined Thomson/Reuters would have a share of the financial news delivery business that would only be matched by privately-held Bloomberg.

The merger of the two financial news and information giants could put Dow Jones in a bit of a bind. Its revenue would be dwarfed by larger competitors, and a rejection of the News Corp. offer could end up looking short-sighted.

But Dow Jones's management has made mistakes before.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's most noteworthy downgrades included Armor Holdings, Inc (AH), Alcan Inc (AL), Advance Auto Parts, Inc (AAP) and Reuters Group PLC (RTRSY):

• Armor Holdings Inc (NYSE: AH) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan based on the news that the company will be sold to BAE Systems PLC (BAESY) for $88 a share in cash. The firm expects the deal to close with no higher offers. Bear Stearns cut Armor Holdings to Peer Perform from Outperform and Friedman Billings cut shares of the vehicle armorer to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Alcan Inc (NYSE: AL) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Bank of America and DA Davidson following the Alcoa (AA) bid.

• Baird cut Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) to Neutral from Outperform following CEO Michael Coppola's resignation. Kevin Dann downgraded Advance to Hold from Buy to reflect an increased level of uncertainty following Mr. Coppola's departure.

• Lehman Brothers downgraded Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Equal Weight from Overweight pending further information on the Thompson Corp (TOC) bid; Credit Suisse cut shares to Neutral from Outperform and Deutsche Bank cut shares to Hold from Buy.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Matrix downgraded UST Inc (NYSE: UST) to Sell from Hold.

• Needham cut Entegris, Inc (NASDAQ: ENTG) to Hold from Buy.

• UBS downgraded shares of Golden Star Resources (AMEX: GSS) to Reduce from Neutral.

• Wachovia cut Rowan Cos (NYSE: RDC) to Market Perform from Outperform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).