Yesterday's New York Times
reported that the CEO of ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Rex Tillerson, gave a speech in which he recognized that global warming is real. He is quoted as saying, "The risks to society and ecosystems from climate change could prove to be significant." This represents a major change for ExxonMobil, which under former CEO Lee Raymond was famous for dismissing the very idea of climate change -- and for funding skeptics in science and mass media to muddy the waters of the debate.
This recognition of global warming does not, however, mean that ExxonMobil plans on doing anything about it. To the contrary, Tillerson argues that while climate change is real, there is a lack of agreement on what effects it will have. "Nobody can conclusively 100 percent know how this is going to play out." And since the effects cannot be foreseen with 100 percent certainty, the best course may be to do nothing, at least for now. At a minimum, new environmental policies must be weighed against the economic costs they create. Tillerson made it clear that those costs could be substantial, and that as a result, oil would -- and should -- continue to be the world's leading energy source for the foreseeable future.
The greatest danger, according to Tillerson, is damaging the global economy as we try to reduce carbon dioxide levels. As far as ExxonMobil is concerned, hydrocarbons will continue to dominate the world's energy needs for decades to come. No other energy source can do the job. Tillerson dismissed ethanol as "moonshine," and said that while alternative fuels may play an important role in the future, ExxonMobil will not be involved in creating them. "There is really nothing I see Exxon can bring to this. We don't see a direct role for ourselves."
This raises some interesting questions about both global warming and energy sector investing. By all accounts now, global warming is real, and its effects could be devastating. (Sorry, polar bears.) But ExxonMobil, like all the other oil companies, doesn't plan on creating alternatives any time soon. In fact, it seems that Exxon plans on holding on to the global energy system for as long as possible -- which may be a very long time, given the rising demand in India and China. That suggests that the profits, like the oil, will continue to flow, no matter how hot it gets on our little planet. And this means that, not for the first time, there may be a contradiction between making money and taking care of ourselves (and everything else) in the long run.