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Posts with tag RichardMoroney

IBM: 'The picture has changed'

This post is part of a report entitled "Six-pack of technology favorites." You can read about the other top tech stock picks here.

"For more than a decade, International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) lived up to its reputation as a slow-growing, stodgy company," says Richard Moroney.

The editor of the blue chip advisory, Dow Theory Forecasts, contends, "But over the last 12 months, the picture changed. Strong operating momentum is now propelling genuine operational growth despite U.S. economic weakness."

"Acquisitions and cost cuts have accounted for most of IBM's growth in recent years. In the 10 years ended 2006, sales increased at an annualized rate of less than 2%, and the company lost both market share and influence.

"However, sales growth has accelerated in each of the last three quarters, and per-share profits have risen at least 23% in each period. Consensus estimates, trending upward over the last month, project per-share-profit growth of 24% in 2008 and 11% in 2009.

"A broad business mix has helped the company keep growing during the economic slowdown. IBM may still be best known for its hardware, but the company's strength over the last year has stemmed from the services and software businesses, which tend to be less economically sensitive than hardware.

"Hardware accounted for about 18% of sales in the six months ended June, while services represented 58% and software generated 20%. Financing operations brought in most of the last 4%.

"While the current economic climate has pinched the consumer, companies are still investing heavily in new technology. IBM's products and services help customers improve efficiency, productivity, and security, which in turn can reduce costs. In the six months ended June, IBM's revenue rose 12%, while per share-profits jumped 34%. Revenue from services increased 17% in the six-month period.

Continue reading IBM: 'The picture has changed'

A six-pack of technology favorites

With concerns over recession, turmoil in the financial sector, fear of rising rates, high market volatility and a rising aversion to risk, many investors have been avoiding technology stocks.

Investors have feared that these economic headwinds will dampen both consumer spending for technology products and reduced capital expenditures for technology in the corporate sector.

Despite these concerns, some of the newsletter industry's leading advisors are looking beyond the current malaise and seeing longer-term value in some of the tech sector's leading players. They believe that much of the "bad news" is already reflected in the price of the shares, with little recognition being given to their longer-term potential.

For those willing to go against the crowd and buy, as they say, "while blood is running in the street," we offer a six-pack of technology stocks that the some top advisors considers to be among their favorite ideas.

Continue reading A six-pack of technology favorites

Drilling for gains in offshore drilling services

"Our 'Forecasts Focus List' contains only two energy stocks, both of which are in the oil services sector: Oceaneering International (NYSE: OII) and Transocean (NYSE: RIG)," says blue chip advisor Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts says, "While stocks in the equipment and services group tend to move with oil prices in the near term, their profits depend more on exploration spending than on commodity prices."

"Concerns about slowing demand for crude oil and re?ned products both in the U.S. and overseas have many investors worried. But investors in the equipment and services group should not panic.

"Most producers continue to spend aggressively. And U.S. crude-oil inventories remain well below the average for this time of year, with fewer than 20 days of supply in storage.

"Demand for offshore-drilling services remains strong, giving Transocean excellent growth potential. Consensus estimates project per-share profits will rise 69% in 2008 and 15% in 2009. Transocean, the world's largest offshore drilling contractor, operates in every major drilling region.

"A combination of tight global rig supplies and the ongoing discovery of new offshore reserves have driven rig lease rates higher and kept Transocean's fleet busy. The company's largest, most expensive rigs are 95% sold out for 2009, and the backlog is growing.

Continue reading Drilling for gains in offshore drilling services

A look at Lockheed (LMT): More than defense

"Partial insulation from the economic slowdown, coupled with new military-aircraft programs, give Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) attractive capital-gains potential over the next several years," says Richard Moroney.

In his blue chip oriented Dow Theory Forecasts, the advisor explains, "A diversified business mix provides investors a measure of safety in a difficult economic climate. The stock is a Focus List Buy."

"Lockheed seems well-positioned with regards to the U.S. defense budget, with very little exposure to Iraq. The company is capable of growing profi ts even if the new U.S. president pulls troops out of the country.

"While defense-spending growth is likely to slow in coming years, ongoing security threats and the need to replace aging equipment should keep the baseline defense budget, which excludes war-related costs, growing through at least 2012.

"A diversified business mix provides investors a measure of safety in a difficult economic climate. After the Air Force, Lockheed's next-largest end market is civil government and homeland security, accounting for 26% of revenue.

"The U.S. Navy accounts for 20% of sales and the Army 10%. About 13% of sales are international, and the U.S. communications industry accounts for 3%.

Continue reading A look at Lockheed (LMT): More than defense

Four favorite funds: 'Perennial winners'

"For investors who seek superior relative performance but are unwilling to sacrifice dependability, the we offer four funds that consistently outperform their peers," says Richard Moroney.

In the mid-year forecast for his Dow Theory Forecasts, he explains, "All of these funds have outpaced category averages in each of last five years, and sometimes much longer." Here, he looks at those funds that he considers "perennial winners."

"To be sure, past returns do not guarantee future success. But, while the evidence is not conclusive, academic studies generally indicate performance tends to persist, particularly at the extremes. That is, the best funds continue to outperform their peers, while the worst funds keep lagging.

"Fidelity Export & Multinational (FEXPX), our favorite pick among large-company growth funds, is riding an impressive nine-year winning streak - the longest in its category. Among the more than 1,800 large-cap growth funds, less than 80, or roughly 4%, have outperformed the peer-group average for five straight years.

Continue reading Four favorite funds: 'Perennial winners'

IBM: A 'focus list' favorite

In its mid-year forecast, Dow Theory Forecasts -- which has been published for 5 decades -- features its top current picks, including IBM (NYSE: IBM), which earns its top designation as a "Focus List Buy."

Editor Richard Moroney explains, "IBM has repeatedly forecast its goal of per-share earnings of $10 to $11 in 2010. The company is well on its way to achieving that goal. Software, in particular, is key to IBM's earnings target.

"The company completed its acquisition of Telelogic in April, three months after purchasing Cognos. IBM expects acquisitions to contribute 3% of its goal of 7% to 10% growth in software sales.

"From 2002 to 2007, mainframe sales averaged 6% growth, but sales fell in three of those years, including 2007. The March quarter showed no improvement, as sales in the division fell 7%. But, with energy prices up, IBM sees an opportunity with its new, energy-efficient Z-series mainframe.

"Server sales have been spotty, but IBM's sales force translates server revenue into two to three times as much in software and systems revenue. IBM, with the potential to reach $155 to $165 over the next 12 months, is a Focus List Buy and a Long-Term Buy."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Qualcomm (QCOM): Legal worries create buying opportunity

"Uncertainty about the legal disputes has weighed on Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)," says Richard Moroney, who rates the stock a long-term buy. The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts explains, "Though the court case may distract investors, Qualcomm's long-term fundamentals appear solid." Here's his bullish outlook.

"The company is embroiled in disputes over royalty fees paid for use of its patents, particularly by one of its largest customers, Nokia. In March, the combatants agreed to consolidate a host of lawsuits into one case to be heard later this year and likely to be decided by year's end.

"Barring a disastrous court loss, which seems unlikely, Qualcomm shares should benefit. Any resolution will reduce uncertainty. By the end of this year, Qualcomm should be able to jettison some of the baggage holding back its stock.

"While the U.S. economic slowdown has sparked fears of a decline in demand for microchips, Qualcomm should benefit as cell-phone users worldwide transition to third-generation technology, which allows for faster downloading of video, music and other data.

Continue reading Qualcomm (QCOM): Legal worries create buying opportunity

Walgreen (WAG): A 'big, strong and healthy' buy

"Shares of Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) have come under pressure in recent months, reflecting a slowdown in sales because of a weakening economy and intensifying competition," notes Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts adds, "However, Walgreen's long-term prospects remain appealing, and the stock is attractively valued. Walgreen is a Long-Term Buy." Here is his review.

"Big, strong, and healthy, Walgreen is the largest U.S. drugstore chain as measured by revenue and the second-largest based on store count.

"The company operates more than 6,200 stores in 48 states and Puerto Rico and plans to boost the count to 7,000 by fiscal 2010 ending August. Walgreen sees long-term potential for about 13,000 U.S. stores. Prescriptions generate about 65% of total sales, with the rest coming from general merchandise.

"In fiscal 2007, both pharmacy and general merchandise sales growth outpaced the industry average, and Walgreen increased market share in nearly all of its core categories.

Continue reading Walgreen (WAG): A 'big, strong and healthy' buy

PetMed Express (PETS): Puppy profits?

"One way to deal with a choppy market is to focus on steady performers with strong market positions in growing industries," says Richard Moroney.

In his Upside Stocks, a leading newsletter focused on small and mid-cap stocks,, he notes, "PetMed Express (NASDAQ: PETS), a leading nationwide pet pharmacy and retailer, fits the bill nicely." Here, the advisor offers his review.

"PetMed Express sells prescription (30% of fiscal 2007 revenue) and nonprescription medications and health products (70%) to retail customers ordering by phone, via the Internet, or through a catalog. The company's Web site generates nearly two-thirds of annual sales.

"Fiscal 2008 ending March should represent the firm's sixth consecutive year of at least 20% per-share profit growth. While earnings growth is expected to slow to about 10% in fiscal 2009, recent operating results suggest PetMed is capable of exceeding consensus expectations.

"PetMed is benefiting from strong market fundamentals and constructive trends. An estimated 63% of U.S. households own a pet, up from 56% in 1988. The U.S. dog and cat population is estimated at a staggering 163 million.

Continue reading PetMed Express (PETS): Puppy profits?

In the Vanguard: Get more yield from munis

"Give muni bonds a good look." says Richard Moroney in Dow Theory Forecast, a leading "blue chip" newsletter that has been publishing for over five decades, who offers a trio of Vanguard funds for investors seeking safety and income.

The advisor explains, "Municipal bonds are showing signs of life, presenting investors with an intriguing opportunity." Here, he review the situation and offers some favorite investment vehicles.

"Muni bonds usually yield less than Treasurys because interest payments from municipals are exempt from federal income taxes.

"But in today's topsy turvy market, intermediate-term municipal bonds now yield around 3.7%, versus 3.6% for 10-year Treasurys. A tax-free yield of 3.7% is the equivalent of a taxable yield of 5.5%, assuming a 33% federal tax bracket.

"Uncertainties about the economy and credit concerns have weighed on bonds, lowering prices and raising yields. Hedge funds have also dumped muni bonds in an attempt to cover trading strategies gone sour.

Continue reading In the Vanguard: Get more yield from munis

Focus on Freeport

Even if copper prices were to move much lower, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX) still "appears cheap" according to Richard Moroney.

In fact, he includes the stock on his Focus Buy List, which represents the strongest buy rating issued by his newsletter, Dow Theory Forecast.

The company has completed its $25.9 billion acquisition of Phelps Dodge and the advisor feels the move made operational sense, noting it's provided Freeport with a geographically diverse asset base while also lessening its dependence on a potentially volatile political situation in Indonesia, which is the site of its huge Grasberg mine.

He explains, "The combined company should have sufficient resources to fund capital expansion while also paying off debt. To fund the acquisition, Freeport is issuing $16 billion in bonds, at least $1 billion in preferred stock convertible to common shares, and at least $2.1 billion in common shares."

Meanwhile, he observes, among the five Wall Street analysts that have adjusted for the merger, the average per-share profit estimate is $8.11 for 2007 and $8.52 for 2008.

He does caution that earnings are tied to metals prices. In fact, he says, "By one estimation, a change of $0.10 per pound in copper prices would spark a rise or fall of $0.75 in per-share earnings."

Nevertheless, while rising copper prices have supported the stock in recent trading, he concludes, "Freeport appears cheap even based on consensus expectations of much lower copper prices."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Magic at Disney

disney store window with princesses"At Walt Disney(NYSE: DIS), the magic is in the earnings," says Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts (subscription only). Incidentally, Dow Theory, is a "blue chip" in its own right; the newsletter has been published for over 50 years, making it among the longest-running and most successful in the industry.

Meanwhile, Disney's blue chip status spreads across all sectors of the entertainment industry, a reach that Moroney says, "allows it to leverage the content from its ubiquitous brands-– such as Disney, ABC, and ESPN - across multiples mediums."

A standout among its operations this year has been its films, such as Chronicles of Narnia, Cars, and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. Overall, he notes, profits of studio entertainment more than tripled, with Pirates alone generating over $1 billion in global box office revenue.

Continue reading Magic at Disney

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA+32.7311,220.96
NASDAQ-3.162,255.88
S&P 500+5.481,242.31

Last updated: September 07, 2008: 07:05 PM

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