Sellers got a win in today after losing six of the last 7 days. The jobless claims were not as bad as expected, and leading indicators were "less-bad" than expected. But we have had close to a 20% rally in the S&P and the DJIA off of lows from the last two weeks. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:

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As if pouring salt on a wound, Moody's came out today and cut the rating of luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to junk status. Their rating was cut to Ba1 from Baa3.

As reported in a Bloomberg report, Moody's said: " While the company is one of the only remaining home builders that is currently generating earnings before impairment charges, Moody's does not expect this to continue, as falling prices and lower absorption rates continue to impact margins."

Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll has recently told the market that he thinks that real estate is still in a downward spiral. It seems that Moody's agrees. While this all maybe true, for long term investors, shares in Toll Brothers are certainly intriguing under $19. Long term, contrarian inclined investors may want to do a bit of research as the shares maybe approaching levels that are hard to refuse.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/3/08.

We have been talking a lot about the weak housing market lately, and this morning we get another sign of just how bad things are with luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) warning it will see a huge decrease in its quarterly revenues.

The Pennsylvania-based home builder has not yet released official numbers, but will be hosting a quarterly outlook conference call today at 2:00 PM EDT about the fiscal third quarter ended July 31.

The company, which reports earnings August 22, expects revenue to fall 21 percent to about $1.21 billion based on preliminary estimates. Toll also said it wasn't comfortable giving earnings guidance.

This can't be a good sign.

Not only is the company preparing investors for a weak fiscal third quarter, it also is setting the stage for more weakness in future quarters. In this morning's announcement, Chief Executive Robert Toll said that uncertainties in the mortgage market right now could continue to lower the pace of home sales moving forward.

Surprisingly, the stock is trading higher in pre-market trading, but I would not be surprised to see this reverse once the market opens up and Wall Street's big boys get into the action.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.