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Viacom does well in Q3, but there is still work to be done

Viacom (NYSE: VIA), a content player in competition with News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, issued Q3 numbers today. If we had a different market on our hands, I think the stock would have reacted better to the news. Revenues were down 3%, but adjusted income rose 25% to 69 cents per share. According to Bloomberg, the bottom line came in well ahead of estimates, which were pegged at 57 cents per share.

Sounds good, doesn't it? Well, the company's A shares are down slightly as I write this by about 0.6%, and the B shares are just about flat. Like I say, if the broader indexes were in an uptrend this afternoon, we probably would have seen a pop in the stock.

Continue reading Viacom does well in Q3, but there is still work to be done

GameStop issues a good report, but stock sells off -- buy it?

GameStop (NYSE: GME) reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Thursday. As expected, they were very good. Why shouldn't they be? The country is in love with video games, and systems by Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) are keeping a lot of people from all age groups occupied. Including myself. I just recently completed Resident Evil 5 for the PlayStation 3.

Continue reading GameStop issues a good report, but stock sells off -- buy it?

Viacom misses in Q4 -- should investors forget the stock?

Viacom (NYSE: VIA), a media company that competes with Disney (NYSE: DIS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, and which used to be under one umbrella with CBS (NYSE: CBS), missed expectations with its Q4 results. Adjusted income from continuing operations was 76 cents per diluted share. According to Stocks in the News, that was two pennies below what Wall Street was looking for.

Shares of Viacom were up almost 4% on the report, which was issued on Thursday. I don't think I would have been a buyer on this news. In fact, I found it kind of funny that there was a bid for the stock considering that earnings-per-share declined 10% on a year-over-year basis and revenues were flat.

Continue reading Viacom misses in Q4 -- should investors forget the stock?

Earnings preview: Will Viacom rock the analysts?

Viacom (NYSE: VIA), a media company that used to exist as one business with CBS (NYSE: CBS) and whose colleagues include Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, will issue Q4 results on Thursday, February 12.

I don't know, I don't feel a lot of confidence about them. According to this source, Viacom may earn somewhere around 79 cents per share in the fourth quarter. That would represent a drop of about 6% when compared to last year's Q4 results (which you can check out via this .pdf link). It wouldn't be so bad if Viacom merely met earnings expectations. After all, the media industry is working through a nasty cycle of contraction. Take a look at Disney's earnings and you'll see what I mean.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Viacom rock the analysts?

Sumner Redstone sends Midway away!

Sumner Redstone, the executive chairman of both CBS (NYSE: CBS) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), has been having a difficult time during the recession. Because of financial pressures, he's been forced to sell stock assets to cover some of his debt problems. Now comes word that he's jettisoned his controlling stake in Midway Games (NYSE: MWY).

Redstone, according to The New York Times, divested himself of his Midway investment. And what a miserable investment it was. If you've followed the story of Midway Games at all, you know it's been nothing but a loser. Losses, revenue declines, and questions about the quality of the publisher's software pipeline seemed to always plague the earnings reports.

Redstone's stake was once worth $700 million. Know what he sold that stake for? $100,000 plus the assumption of debt valued at $70 million. Talk about a lousy loss. Midway just couldn't compete against the likes of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS). You've got to wonder what Redstone saw in the company.

Continue reading Sumner Redstone sends Midway away!

Nintendo joins musical fray with Wii Music

In an effort to compete with Activision Blizzard, Inc's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero, and Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA) division Harmonix's Rock Band, Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) has released its own music game, Wii Music. Wii Music does not require the user to press buttons at certain times but to move the Wii Remote and Nunchuk like they were playing the instruments.

The game features 60 playable instruments, including the guitar and the piano, as well as more obscure instruments, such as the cowbell. The game also features a mix of songs, from the themes to Nintendo classics Super Mario Brothers and The Legend of Zelda, to the classical songs Beethoven's Ode to Joy and Wagner's The Bridal Chorus, to popular hits by Madonna, The Police and John Lennon. However, with only 15 licensed songs, Wii Music lacks the current chart-toppers and great selection of hits that both Guitar Hero and Rock Band feature. In comparison, the latest Guitar Hero, Guitar Hero World Tour, features over 85 tracks, while the Rock Band features 84 songs on the disc plus 20 free downloadable songs.

The reception to the game, which was released on October 20, 2008, was mixed. 1UP.com rated the game an A-, with reviewer Jennifer Tsao (a classically trained musician) saying it "shows surprising depth and flexibility, and those who have actually learned the controls unique to their instrument will be rewarded." However, Game Informer gave the game a 3 out of 10, saying it is a "poor solution to an imaginary problem."

The critical consensus, as with most Wii games, is that the game's target audience is children, and that the game is too simplistic and shallow for adults, even those only considered to be casual gamers. Hence, it is unlikely that this game would affect the sales of the other rhythm giants, Guitar Hero and Rock Band. Evidence of this can be found in the sales numbers, as the game has sold less than 100,000 copies since its Japanese release, which Nintendo's Shigeru Miyamoto admitted was not as strong as originally hoped. In contrast, the original Guitar Hero has sold over 1.5M copies, and the latest Rock Band, Rock Band 2, sold 360,000 copies in the month of September 2008, when it was released.

Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group

As an Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) shareholder, I'm extremely gratified by the unqualified success of the Guitar Hero franchise. However, I'm none too happy about statements made by Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) CEO Edgar Bronfman Jr. who believes that Activision Blizzard should be paying more to license the songs. When I first heard about that, I admit, I became a bit worried. After all, if the publisher has to pony up a higher amount of cash to the music industry, then there could be pressure on the stock.

Well, I'm glad I caught a blog post by Eliot Van Buskirk for Wired over at Portfolio.com. Looks like Activision Blizzard CEO Robert Kotick isn't taking too kindly to those in the music industry who suggest his company needs to share a higher percentage of the spoils. He basically told Bronfman Jr. to chill out, suggesting that the impact of his software platform on music sales for artists that are contained within it almost argues that the publisher shouldn't pay a dime to the music industry.

The shareholder in me says "right on, Bob!" In this digital age, the music industry needs all the help it can get in promoting its artist roster. Gone are the days when consumers opened their wallets for physical CDs. That aspect of the music industry is dying in favor of the iTunes model that powers Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and its iPod empire. Therefore, I agree with Buskirk's assertion that the boat shouldn't be rocked here. Music companies should just accept the licensing structure as it exists, look at it as a loss leader if they feel that's what it is, and just be satisfied with the ancillary promotion they receive.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group

Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes?

You know, I keep hearing about this Spore game. It's set to be released by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to the Nintendo DS and to computer platforms later this week. There's been so much buzz surrounding it, and for good reason. Not only does it sound pretty neat and imaginative, but it was designed by Will Wright, the man who brought the world the Sim franchise. As I understand it, the player's goal is to guide a microbe through the process of evolution until it becomes a society blessed with enough intelligence so as to confer the capability of interstellar travel. Wild stuff, right? Remember, Wright is a genius, and the Sim games have certainly brought in a lot of dough for EA.

But how will the game be received? Is it too complex, too brainy for most gamers? Or, will Spore take the whole Sim concept into a new stratosphere of success? Are we witnessing the birth of a new, marketing-friendly super-franchise that will appeal to a broad demographic? Like I say, the buzz is strong. Yet, I didn't realize the title was coming out this week until I read this recent press release, which is using some celebrities to promote the game. Go figure, I guess.

I think Spore will be a hit, but I'm not sure it will be a big enough hit to move EA's stock back to its 52-week high, certainly. The publisher has such a deep portfolio of games, so this one title won't necessarily move the needle. But the celebration of Spore forced me to take another look at EA and wonder if the company's stock might be an interesting play ahead of the holiday season.

Continue reading Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes?

GameStop delivers incredible growth, but stock just won't react

Investors have to find this frustrating. I know I hate it when this happens to one of my stocks. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) issued its Q2 numbers today. The numbers were a thing of beauty for the most part. Yet, the stock goes nowhere. And yes, I know this is a bad market day, but still, I thought a little pop was in order. As it is, shares are down about 1% as I write.

Sales increased almost 35% to $1.8 billion. The bottom line saw an increase of well over 100%, coming in at $0.34 per diluted share. According to this article, expectations were for $0.28 per share. So, do you see where I'm coming from? Expectations were beat, and growth was stellar... come on, investors, give the stock a bid! Granted, the article mentioned something I noticed as well: the gross margin declined. Okay, it declined. But same-store sales simply rocketed like a spacecraft at a growth rate of 20% during Q2. That has to be worth something ahead of the holiday-selling season. Games from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) powered the quarter. And guess what? They're going to power the next two quarters, too. We have new iterations of Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Rock Band to look forward to. Oh, and Lego Batman. Seriously, don't discount that latter title. A lot of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3s and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360s will move off shelves, and that little system called the Wii is going to be the hottest console again this Christmas. Oh, and then there's the DS. GameStop sells 'em all.

GameStop beat its own guidance, and I think it has a great chance of continuing to beat its own guidance in the near future. That aforementioned article mentions that investors are concerned with slowing growth in the video-game universe. Okay, point well taken, I suppose. But GameStop is such a great brand in its sector, and consumers have come to know it as the go-to place for entertainment software. And as hardware continues to become cheaper, and as the installed user base rises, GameStop should benefit. The shares haven't done well this year, declining over 30% on the year-to-date timeframe as of this writing. The stock is much closer to its 52-week low than to its 52-week high. It's weak. But, I also think it's cheap. If you have a long time horizon, you may want to check GameStop out. If you're a quicker trader, you may want to wait for the stock to come back about $5 toward its 52-week low (if that happens).

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Warner Music Group rocks the analysts, but is it a buy?

Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) reported third-quarter earnings numbers on Thursday (for more earnings news, see here). Revenues increased a scant 5% to $848 million. The bottom line saw a net loss of 6 cents per share. According to Earnings.com, analysts were expecting a loss of 18 cents per share. So, expectations were soundly beat.

But should investors be completely enamored of the performance? There were some interesting growth rates sprinkled throughout the release. Indeed, digital revenues increased over 39%, and operating income from continuing operations jumped almost 11%. Free cash flow, as defined by the company (management adds back net cash paid or received for investments excluding short-term investments) soared 63% during the quarter, coming in at $93 million. However, during the nine-month period, free cash flow declined 47% to $37 million. Furthermore, net cash from operations decreased 1% and 6% for the third quarter and nine-month period, respectively.

In my opinion, investors should not be completely enamored of the performance. I see a mixed-bag here. I'd need to see some better long-term growth rates in the cash flow, and healthier top-line appreciation, to become intrigued. Warner Music obviously wants to leverage digital revenues as much as possible and adjust to the new landscape that the music business finds itself currently navigating. Interestingly enough, CEO Edgar Bronfman, Jr. is a bit angry at Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Rock Band music-gaming systems. According to this article, the CEO thinks that the song-licensing fees for the games are too low. This, of course, shows just how popular and significant music-gaming has become.

Continue reading Warner Music Group rocks the analysts, but is it a buy?

Viacom proves me wrong with results driven by box-office hits

Well, you can't win 'em all. I certainly found that out with Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) latest quarterly results. The media company delivered the complete opposite of my expectations. Let's go through the numbers.

Revenues for the second quarter increased 21% to almost $3.9 billion. Net income from continuing operations expanded 19% to 64 cents per share. That beat the estimate I was using by three pennies (other sources listed a lower estimate for earnings). No matter how you slice it, Viacom showed Wall Street how it's done.

Now, let me admit how wrong I was. I thought media networks would shine during the quarter and that the film division might not do as well. Operating income at media networks increased 4%, while Paramount and its colleagues increased their segment's profit by almost 300%! You can thank the new Indiana Jones movie, as well as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda, for bringing the crowds into the multiplex and the money into Viacom's coffers.

Continue reading Viacom proves me wrong with results driven by box-office hits

Earnings preview: Will Viacom's results boost its stock?

Viacom (NYSE: VIA) is due to report Q2 earnings on Tuesday, July 29, after the market closes. What will be in store for the media company and fierce competitor of Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)? According to data at Zacks.com, the company may report something in the vicinity of $0.61 per share, which would be good for 12% growth on the bottom line. Viacom has a reasonable chance of beating the estimate, based on past history.

There will be a few key elements that investors will be looking at. One product that has been a driving factor for Viacom's success is, believe it or not, a video game. Rock Band, which competes against Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVID) Guitar Hero titles, has been a boon for the company, and the MTV segment specifically. The game, which is distributed by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), will have a sequel coming out this fall, and I hope management enlightens Wall Street about how it feels it will do against Activision Blizzard's new iteration of its own musical-gaming system and how it plans to promote it. Will there be any special synergies between MTV and the sequel? Watch for data on the number of song downloads that Rock Band is fueling.

When I took a look at Viacom's last earnings report, I found that the media-networks division was doing great business. Its operating income had jumped 15%. The media segment, which includes the valuable MTV Networks, should do well again in Q2, and I would expect something close to this kind of growth rate. However, I would be watching for signs from management that the economy may be affecting advertising. Going forward, this will be the challenge for MTV, Nickelodeon, etc. And speaking of Nickelodeon, are there any initiatives on the board to counteract the incredible growth that the Disney Channel has seen thanks to properties such as Hannah Montana? Investors should listen to the conference call for information about marketing plans and new shows, as well as merchandising schemes for the upcoming holiday season.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Viacom's results boost its stock?

Rock Band 2 coming this fall

Billboard reported Monday that MTV Games, a division of Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA), will release the second installment of the popular Rock Band game this September. Rock Band first came out late last year in direct competition with Activision Inc.'s (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero franchise, but where Guitar Hero only offers guitar simulated play, Rock Band offers a wide range of instruments and vocal game play. Rock Band also features an online store where users can download additional tracks for the game.

Rock Band 2 will be released at a time when a number of other music-related games, and according to MTV Games the game will feature "new and 'improved' drum and guitar controllers, a larger soundtrack, and new online modes and customization options." Additionally, all previous controllers and downloaded songs will also be compatible with the new game, so players will not lose those features or be required to buy new input devices. The game will initially only be available on Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 platform but will expand to other systems by the end of the year.

Rock Band and Guitar Hero alike have revolutionized many listeners' interface with the music they love, simply because it expands the "play-ability" of many users who may not have ever picked up or tried to play actual instruments. Those listeners aren't lazy by any means, but these two game franchises expand the experience of playing music in a way that has never been possible before.

Guitar Hero / Rock Band: The Beatles on the horizon?

The Financial Times reported last week that representatives for The Beatles, Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and MTV Games, a division of Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA), are in talks about developing Beatles-themed video game versions of Guitar Hero and Rock Band "in a move that could pave the way for a broader licensing of the Fab Four's catalog." Although the final deal would eventually be worth several million dollars, it would have to win over both Apple Corps and the EMI Group, the two companies that oversee the band's business interests and the master recordings.

The Beatles have been one of the major artists to resist any move into the digital world, but if such a deal were to occur it would likely happen simultaneously with any move by The Beatles into digital stores and the digital market. In the past year and a half, numerous rumors have appeared that cited 2008 as the year that would see the move, including comments made by Olivia Harrison, George Harrison's widow. Unfortunately, no such appearance by the band into stores like Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes or Amazon.com Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AMZN) MP3 Store has happened even with a new management team led by former Sony BMG executive Jeff Jones.

Any deal would send a massive shockwave through the music industry and no doubt come with numerous marketing and advertising techniques that have become popular and successful in recent years. Although many Beatles purists and fans might be put off by an iTunes-themed commercial featuring The Beatles and the band's music, the exposure provided by such a method would increase awareness of the band to younger and newer audiences.

Activision wants to shred 'Rock Band' with its new evolution of "Guitar Hero"

Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) doesn't want to let Rock Band have all the fun. According to Reuters, Activision wants to turn its Guitar Hero platform into a truly direct competitor to its colleague. Come the fall, the publisher will release Guitar Hero World Tour, a package that will include a guitar, a microphone, and a drum set. There will be online capability; players will also be able to create their own tunes via a suite of digital-music tools. And all the major platforms from Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) will be getting this game.

Rock Band, which is developed by Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s Harmonix and sold by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), is no longer unique now that Activision has expanded the depth of its famous brand. Indeed, Guitar Hero still thrived even in the face of Viacom's music game, but it looks like Activision is taking no chances; the publisher obviously realizes that, as time goes on and upgrades to Rock Band come along, the Guitar Hero franchise might see eventual erosion of its fan base as the fad matures. Evolution would certainly be justified at this point.

Yet, I am of two minds about this move. On the one side, I can understand why this had to be done. And I can see why it should work out; after all, Activision's brand equity when it comes to this Guitar Hero game is incredible. Seriously, if you don't know, a lot of players out there, both hardcore and casual, love this platform. However, there's another side to me that wonders if traditionalists won't necessarily enjoy the aspect of the additional instruments. Do they add value, or do they now make the brand seem clunky and complicated? On a gut level, I always theorized that those who chose Guitar Hero over Rock Band relished the fact that it was just one guitar. Then again, going back to the brand-equity thing, maybe current players will now want to try out a more complex musical-gaming experience since the Guitar Hero name is attached.

Continue reading Activision wants to shred 'Rock Band' with its new evolution of "Guitar Hero"

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 10:18 PM

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