"Investing in agriculture-related companies has been one of our main themes for the past year, and we still favor it," say resource experts Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous.
The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor note, "We're adding a new stock to the portfolio that should benefit from the increasingly higher global demand for fertilizer: Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT).
"Potash is the world's largest and lowest-cost publicly traded potash producer, the fastest-growing segment in the fertilizer business. Its potash reserves are sufficient for more than 100 years of production.
"The company controls about 70% of the world's excess capacity. Potash Corp is also the world's third-largest phosphate producer and fourth-largest nitrogen producer. Current phosphate reserves should last more than 50 years.
"As incomes around the world rise, so does demand for food; and the explosive growth in population is aggravating the situation even further," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad.
The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor explain, "The big cycle in food demand has begun, and long-term-oriented investors will be rewarded handsomely." What's the best play? Among their favorites is Monsanto (NYSE: MON).
"Monsanto is the undisputed leader in the genetically modified (GM) seed industry. Its business consists of two segments: Seeds/Genomics and Agricultural Productivity.
"The Seeds/Genomics segment consists of the company's global seeds and traits business, and genetic technology platforms, including biotechnology, breeding and genomics.
"The Agricultural Productivity segment consists primarily of crop protection products, residential lawn-and-garden herbicide products, and the company's animal agricultural businesses.
"Monsanto shares have been affected by the market's shorter-term gyrations, but the underlying business is extremely healthy. In fact, the seed business is currently in a sweet spot as global food demand changes dramatically.
"People want to own more gold when there's a perception of growing global economic and political turmoil," explain resource experts Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous.
In their Vital Resource Investor, the advisor offer their long-term bullish assessment for gold as well their favorite gold mining stock: "Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).
"Every commodity bull market eventually ends when consumers permanently reduce demand with conservation and switch to alternatives, and the producers ultimately over-expand. This, however, only happens over a period of many years.
"To be sure, we've seen demand in the US drop for many vital resources, from copper to energy, as the economy has slowed. Demand from developing nations, however, remains entrenched by necessity, as these suddenly more affluent nations struggle to upgrade their vital infrastructure.
"And although we may see Chinese economic growth slow from its current off-the-chart 10% rate, that country will still face critical needs to build out its cities to meet the millions of new migrants that come every year. And that's a huge call on raw materials.
"Global steel producers are thriving, and their stocks are hitting new highs," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger S. Conrad, who add, "But the best is yet to come."
In the industry-leading Personal Finance, the two advisors explain, "We're still in the early stage of a truly global bull market cycle for steel, and the companies best positioned to take advantage are headed a lot higher." Here, they look at their "Iron Five."
"As is the case with other building blocks of economic growth, steel is enjoying explosive demand from the developing world. And with the world expanding as never before, steel companies are literally selling as fast as they can produce.
"In the August 2007, we highlighted five first-rate global steel producers. Since then, they've returned an average of 67.4%, versus a decline of 3.7% for the S&P 500.
"The Iron Five are five picks that we believe are ripe for even bigger gains. Like the last group, these stocks are often volatile. They're also vulnerable to the possibility of a general stock market slide and most of all to a dip in global demand growth, particularly from China.
"Wealth building is about buying quality on the cheap; and you're not going to find the best water industry stocks at better prices than they sell for now," says utility sector specialist Roger Conrad.
"All three of these water stocks posted disappointing first quarter earnings for very different reasons. However, all remain tapped into long-run, wealth-building opportunities.
"Aqua's first quarter results were by no means a disaster. But they lagged both last year's total and Wall Street estimates.
"Management blamed the slowing economy's impact on housing starts in what had been fast-growing systems, rising bad debt, lower commercial sales, delays in fully digesting acquisitions in the South and longer-than-expected timetables needed to win rate increases.
Resource industry specialists Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous are bullish on the agriculture and water sectors; in their model portfolio they already hold 6 stocks in these sectors.
The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor explain, "We see strong underpinnings for continued higher agricultural prices for many years to come." Here's their latest agrculture play: EI du Pont de Nemours (NYSE: DD).
"Recently the United Nations Food Agency warned of civil war in some countries because of global food shortages. With the rapid urbanization of Asian countries, we see a growing global dependence on a shrinking number of food producing nations, particularly with the world adding 78.5 million people each year.
"There will be ups and downs for prices along the way. A throttling back of America's efforts to develop ethanol so extensively or a move to use something besides corn to brew ethanol could take some of the upward pressure off corn prices.
"A real global recession could also cause food prices to back off for a time and it's also possible we'll see some form of US government intervention to curb food prices, particularly as the presidential election develops.
"The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor caution that "no market moves in a straight line, and in commodities, the action is often extremely violent." However, for long-term investors, they offer some favorites in iron ore, aluminum and copper.
"All commodity bull markets are ultimately gored by demand destruction, alternatives and new supply. But it will almost certainly be years before that happens to this one. And that means plenty of money will be made along the way.
"We're still extremely bullish on iron ore as the market remains in deficit and prices continue to rise. Chinese domestic supply has been falling and, if this continues, imports will make up the difference, thereby helping the miners.
"China consumes 51% of the world's iron supply. Portfolio holding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), the world's largest iron ore producer, will benefit from the shortage in iron ore supply.
"We favor aluminum in the industrial metals sector. We've been advocating aluminum for some time, and the market's finally going our way. Aluminum prices have been impacted by lack of available power in China and South Africa and higher alumina and bauxite prices.
"Two years ago, Entergy Corp's regulated utility business was literally in ruins. The core New Orleans subsidiary as well as units in Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, faced billions in repair costs, and thousands of customers lost their homes.
"However, Entergy stayed on its feet for one reason: a portfolio of well-run nuclear power plants-the nation's second largest-that ran at 90 percent-plus capacity while wholesale electricity prices surged.
"With utility operations recovered, third quarter earnings surged 27.8% and are set for another 20% next year. Management shared some of that bounty by hiking dividends 38.9% in 2007. This year, shareholders will get more cash as well as a 50% interest in the company's five unregulated nuclear plants.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Over the past 18 months, Canadian oil and gas producer trust has endured a trial by fire. First natural gas prices started tumbling.
"Then the Conservative party government announced it would begin taxing trusts as corporations starting in 2011, and restricted the number of shares trust can issue. Finally, this fall investors have bailed out of everything remotely economically sensitive.
"Through it all, however, the Enerplus has remained rock-solid as a business. For starters, the yield of nearly 13% -- paid monthly -- is backed by a modest 70% payout ratio. And that ratio was achieved by selling oil in the third quarter at less than $70 a barrel.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Mechel OAO (NYSE: MTL), Russia's second-largest producer of long steel products," is our favorite speculative play for 2008," say co-editors Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor.
"The company operates one major steel mill with a capacity of close to 5 million tons of output per year. Mechel operates in Russia, Lithuania and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Its ace in the hole is a mining business that focuses on raw materials used in making steel, primarily coking coal, iron ore, nickel and steam coal.
"The company's steel business is 100% self-sufficient in coking coal, 80% in iron ore and 50% in electricity. This aspect of Mechel (i.e., vertical integration) is critical in an environment where raw material prices continue to rise. And it should support the stock because its performance this year has been nothing less than dazzling.
"Mechel is a high-cost producer, and management has worked to cut costs while improving efficiency. Those efforts have been quietly successful up to now, and we expect this to be an ongoing positive theme.
"And Russia's strong domestic demand -- within and outside the all-important energy sector -- is an additional advantage for the company. Buy Mechel at current prices."
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Aluminum is one of our favorite commodities for 2008 and the best leveraged play on aluminum is Australia-based Alumina (NYSE: AWC)," explain co-editors Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor.
"The company, our top conservative pick for 2008, owns 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals, which, in turn, holds the world's largest, low-cost portfolio of quality bauxite and alumina assets.
"Having the world's largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system (it provides approximately 13% of the world's alumina supply) in one place is the company's main attraction.
"As energy, raw materials and freight costs continue to increase, Alumina's setup makes its operations increasingly competitive and low cost versus those of rivals.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Like most electric utilities, Duke Energy faces a capital spending challenge in coming years, as it ramps up output to meet exploding future demand and meets new regulations on carbon dioxide. Unlike most, however, it's well positioned not only to meet the new rules but to profit from them.
"Duke's nuclear power plants have long been among the best-run in the industry. To them, the company has added a wind developer this year as well. But the real opportunity could well be in coal. In November, Duke won Indiana regulators' approval to build a 630 megawatt integrated gasification combined cycle plant (IGCC).
"By converting that state's coal to clean-burning gas, the plant will produce four times the electricity of the Edwardsville coal plant it will replace and 45% less carbon dioxide (CO2) per megawatt hour. That's not including the potential addition of CO2 capture technology.
According to Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous, "Resource stocks are by nature volatile. The important thing is we're still very much in a long-term bull market. And when the market mood does shift, today's pain will convert very quickly to massive gain."
In Vital Resource Investor they explain, "There is ongoing consolidation in this sector and the recent setback in stock prices make deals more attractive for acquirers." Here, they look at Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), a play on consolidation in the iron ore industry.
"And when the market mood does shift, today's pain will convert very quickly to massive gain. The long-term underpinnings for vital resources are strong as ever: Soaring demand from the world's emerging growth engines, a growing scarcity of easily accessed supplies, rising development costs, resurgent resource nationalism and ongoing sector consolidation.
"It's this last trend that's captured our attention lately. Importantly, when it comes to developing vital resources profitably, size is essential. This year has already witnessed two mega-deals: Freeport Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) has bought Phelps Dodge and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) purchased Alcan.
"And we're certain to see many more announced in coming months. The recent dance between BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and its giant rival suggest the need to get bigger is greater than ever. Even if it doesn't succeed, the proposed merger is already increasing rivals' urge to merge.
"Sometimes it takes a while for the market to recognize a company's achievements. When it ultimately does, however, the result is super-charged returns," says Roger Conrad, editor of The Utility Forecaster.
"Over the past decade, few companies have risen as quickly to dominate their industries as Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ)." Here is the advisor's review.
"Verizon began its ascent with a series of mergers, combining with the former NYNEX, GTE and finally MCI Communications. It simultaneously unified its wireless operation with that of Vodafone, keeping 55% of the venture known as Verizon Wireless.
"Since then, Verizon Wireless has grown rapidly and today boasts the biggest consumer network in the US, along with the lowest turnover and highest margins. The former MCI coupled with Verizon's former business operation continues to expand globally.
"Even the wireline division -- which is steadily losing customers to competitors, including the company's own wireless service -- is finding new life upselling broadband services.
For growth, utility expert Roger Conrad likes Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA), while for income, he picks the cable firm's dividend-paying notes and preferreds.
The editor of The Utility Forecaster explains, "Cash flow and revenue growth of 30%-plus is hardly utility like. But those are the numbers cable communications provider Comcast Corp. put up in the second quarter and has consistently for the past few years."
Best of all, he adds, there's no end in sight to its success. He observes, "The company added 94% more revenue-generating units in the second period than last year, a clear sign sales of its 'triple bundle' of cable TV, broadband Internet and telecom service are still accelerating."