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Top 20 advisors: Chris Mayer sees low risk with ROSE

Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.

Chris Mayer, editor of Capital & Crisis, chose Rosetta Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: ROSE) as his top pick for 2007. The stock rose 32%, as of June 1, 2007. Here is Chris's original recommendation for Rosetta and his new favorite stock for the rest of 2007.

Updating Rosetta, the advisor now says, "I continue to like ROSE, which should increase production greatly this year. The company is in good financial shape. It still has a relatively low-risk portfolio of drilling projects.

"I also feel good about the future of natural gas prices. In a world where we're draining the conventional natural gas wells at a fast rate, large fields of relatively untapped gas potential in the lower 48 are going to be worth a lot. Rosetta has that in its Rio Vista interests.

The company also keeps blowing away estimates. In the March quarter, earnings came in 33% better than analysts expected. In December, they beat the consensus by 24%. All of this and it still trades for a reasonable multiple -- only 14 times next year's (too low) estimate."

See all 20 stocks the advisors picked for the second half of 2007.

Top 20 advisors: Chris Mayer fills up with National Fuel

Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.

Chris Mayer, editor of Capital & Crisis, chose Rosetta Resources (NASDAQ: ROSE) as his favorite stock for 2007, which rose 32% as of 6/1/07. Here is his original recommendation for Rosetta and his current opinion on the stock.

For his new top pick, National Fuel Gas Co. (NYSE: NFG), he says, "I love companies with 'hidden assets,' things that have been lying around gathering dust but suddenly turn into something very valuable. It's like finding an old Mickey Mantle baseball card in Dad's attic.

"One stock that is a hidden asset in the Appalachians is National Fuel Gas. Like an old baseball card, it's been around a long time. NFG incorporated in 1902, though its predecessor companies are much older. It is an integrated gas utility. This means it is involved in every aspect of natural gas, from the bottom of the well to the burner tip.

"NFG has its own exploration and development company, with oil and gas reserves across many states (45% of production is oil). It has a regulated utility serving 727,000 customers in New York and Pennsylvania.

"It owns nearly 3,000 miles of pipeline, along with 32 storage fields. NFG also owns over 100,000 acres of black cherry hardwood in Pennsylvania. Finally, NFG has a small energy broker business with some 25,000 customers.

Continue reading Top 20 advisors: Chris Mayer fills up with National Fuel

Top Picks 2007: Chris Mayer uncovers Rosetta

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Rosetta Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROSE) is the top speculative pick for 2007 from Chris Mayer, editor of Capital & Crisis. He explains, "Rosetta is primarily a gas exploration and production company; the vast majority (87%) of its gas reserves is in the Sacramento Basin and south Texas. The rest is in the Gulf of Mexico and the Rocky Mountains.

"This is no small matter. Earlier in 2006, Bolivian President Evo Morales sent his army to seize Bolivia's natural gas fields. While North American producers incur higher costs of production, they come with the added safety of having their properties safely tucked away in the United States.

"Rosetta has the opportunity to vastly increase production and add significantly to reserves. Next year alone, we could see a 40% increase in production. Earnings could double to $2 per share, assuming average gas prices of $8 (in 2006, average realized gas prices were about $7.37). Based on that 2007 estimate, the shares go for less than 9 times earnings. By 2008, total production could nearly double from 2005.

"Rosetta has ample and long-lived gas reserves. On a net asset value (NAV) basis, using only proven reserves of 359 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) and assuming an average gas price of $8, I estimate NAV at $25 per share. Based on a recent price of nearly $18, the company trades at about 30% discount to NAV.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Chris Mayer uncovers Rosetta

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:37 PM

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