Alcoa (AA) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. The company competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Chalco (ACH).

The company recently released its Q4 2010 earnings, and we have updated our price estimate to $17.68 based on a reduction in total debt, an increase in revenues from better product pricing and better cash management leading to cost savings.

Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value

The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. While our analysis shows that it was Alcoa's most valuable division in terms of contributor to shareholder's income, we have further increased our estimates for the overall value of the division going forward.

Aluminum prices have increased over the last two years since their sudden decline from peak prices in mid-2008. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.

We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.

With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.

See the complete $17.68 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock.

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Though Gulzhan Moldazhanova is the top female executive in Russia, she is little known outside the former Soviet Union. I hadn't heard of her, and a quick trip to my frequent first stop on the research trail, Wikipedia, surprisingly had nothing on her when I looked.

Digging a little deeper (thanks to the Globe and Mail) reveals a rags to riches story. This soft-spoken, Khazakstan-born divorced mother of a three-year-old, started her career as the secretary for an ambitious young Russian businessman named Oleg Deripaska (who does have a Wikipedia page). In only ten years she worked her way up the ladder to become CEO of Russia's biggest and fastest-growing industrial conglomerate, Basic Element. This US$23 billion company is a big player in seven domestic industries -- energy, resources, manufacturing, financial services, construction, materials, and aviation -- and recently took a US$1.54 billion stake in Canadian auto parts giant Magna International (NYSE: MGA).

Moldazhanova lives in Moscow, speaks English, and according to Fortune magazine is the 20th most powerful woman in the world. She first went to work for Deripaska when he was running an aluminum trading company. After she trained as an accountant at the Russian government's Finance Academy, her career took off. By 2003, Deripaska, and his company Rusal, had became the undisputed king of Russian aluminum. In 2006, Rusal surpassed Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) and to become the world's top aluminum maker.