Analyst Upgrades

• Citigroup upgraded Reynolds American (RAI) to buy from hold to reflect its improved outlook for the company's market share and pricing. Citi also sees a greater chance of British American Tobacco (BTI) bidding for the rest of Reynolds American it doesn't already own. The firm raised its target price on Reynolds to $59 from $52.
• Stephens upgraded Simmons First National (SFNC) to overweight from equal weight to reflect the company's balance sheet and potential for accretive FDIC-assisted acquisitions. The firm raised its target on shares to $32 from $29.
• FBR Capital upgraded Astoria Financial (AF) to market perform from underperform on expectations the company's net charge-offs will peak in the fourth quarter, limiting downside risk. The firm raised its target on shares to $11 from $10.
• First Solar (FSLR) was upgraded to buy from hold at Collins Stewart.
• Brown-Forman (BF.B) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.

The new earnings season ramps up this week as Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reports fourth-quarter results. Last week, the Pittsburgh-based producer of aluminum and alumina announced layoffs and production cuts as a reaction to the economic downturn. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that Alcoa will have swung to its first quarterly loss in years: $0.10 per share. That compares to a profit of $0.36 per share in the same period of the previous year. Revenues for the quarter are expected to have fallen 28.8% from a year ago to $5.3 billion. For 2008, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $27.6 billion, down from $2.60 per share and $30.8 billion in the previous year. Alcoa missed earnings estimates in three of the past five quarters, by 25.4% in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts shifted from buy to hold AA during the past quarter. The share price has been climbing in recent weeks, but it is 65.6% lower than a year ago.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is also scheduled to report fourth-quarter results this week, one of a handful of tech stocks to do so. The number one semiconductor maker is expected to post earnings down 86.8% to $0.05 per share, and sales of $8.2 billion, down 23.3% from a year ago. Last week, Intel forecast sales for the quarter of $8.2 billion. The full-year numbers are expected to be marginally lower than a year ago, or $0.94 per share on $37.7 billion. Intel only missed earnings estimates in one of the past five quarters. Shares are about $2.00 higher than the 52-week low, but 37.2% lower than a year ago.