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Consumer spending falls victim to debt repayment

Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

Continue reading Consumer spending falls victim to debt repayment

Retail sales: Signs of life, but not yet a rising tide

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

Continue reading Retail sales: Signs of life, but not yet a rising tide

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AA, BIG, ED, FDX, MGM, MSFT, SKS ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • Jefferies upgraded Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company will be able to reach a settlement with the New York PSC Staff that will provide benefits to both ratepayers and shareholders. The firm raised its target on shares to $46 from $40.50.
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's balance sheet, industry leading position, and potential for accretive acquisitions. The firm raised its target on shares to $75 from $57.
  • JPMorgan upgraded Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) to Overweight from Neutral to reflect valuation and industry data points that suggest a pick-up in discretionary spending. The firm has a $30 target on the stock.
  • Alcoa (NYSE: AA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
  • Bronco Drilling (NYSE: BDC) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AA, BIG, ED, FDX, MGM, MSFT, SKS ...

Cash-strapped Saks Inc. launches secondary offering

Late Tuesday, Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) announced plans to offer up to $100 million in common stock. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the upscale retailer said it will use proceeds from the offering to pay down its debt, and for general corporate purposes. Saks has approximately 138.3 million shares of common stock outstanding as of Sept. 28, and its long-term debt and lease obligations amounted to $662.9 million as of Aug. 1.

Saks has endured a rough year, thanks to a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending amid the recession. The high-end chain has swallowed quarterly losses in each of the previous four reporting periods, and analysts are expecting a loss of 14 cents per share for the current quarter.

Continue reading Cash-strapped Saks Inc. launches secondary offering

Earnings highlights: B&N, Deere, Heinz, Home Depot, HP, Sears, Target ...

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: B&N, Deere, Heinz, Home Depot, HP, Sears, Target ...

Saks (SKS) and Nordstrom (JWN) out of fashion at Credit Suisse

Things aren't looking so luxurious for the shareholders of Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE: JWN) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) today. Shares of both of these upscale department-store chains are seeing red today following negative words from Wall Street.

As Eric Buscemi noted this morning, JWN was cut to "underperform" from "neutral" at Banc of America/Merrill Lynch. Nordstrom was also sliced to "neutral" from "outperform" at Credit Suisse, citing valuation and concerns about the environment for mall anchors. Credit Suisse did maintain its price target of $22.

Continue reading Saks (SKS) and Nordstrom (JWN) out of fashion at Credit Suisse

Earnings highlights: HP, Gap, Saks, Hormel, Barnes & Noble and more

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: HP, Gap, Saks, Hormel, Barnes & Noble and more

Dick's falls, Saks rises on better-than-expected Q1 results

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) reported higher-than-expected first quarter results Tuesday, while Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) posted a smaller-than-expected net loss for the first quarter.

For the first quarter ended May 2, Dick's posted a profit of $10.2 million, or $0.11 per share excluding items. Revenue increased 5% from a year ago to $959.7 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of $0.07 a share on revenue of $914.3 million.

Continue reading Dick's falls, Saks rises on better-than-expected Q1 results

The week in preview: Eye on apparel and tech earnings

Last week we got a good look at how the apparel retailers have been doing when JCPenney Inc. (NYSE: JCP), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) all reported better-than-expected earnings for the most recent quarter. On the other hand, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: EBHI), Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ), and Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) reported quarterly losses, reflecting the ongoing reluctance of consumers to spend.

Continue reading The week in preview: Eye on apparel and tech earnings

The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the parade of earnings declines to continue into the final week of February, with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY), Del Monte Foods Co. (NASDAQ: DLM), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) all expected to post lower earnings for the most recent quarter. Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) are expect to have swung to a loss.

Continue reading The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

2008 Trades Gone Bad #1: Going long the specialty retailers

If you made a bet on the specialty retailers leading up to the first $600 taxpayer rebate stimulus package, you got hammered.

Talk about a government plan backfiring big time.

That $300 billion in checks that fell out of the sky from government helicopters back in the March to May timeframe didn't find its way to the malls at all.

Instead, people paid down credit card debt, and tuition, medical and other bills, leaving little for spending on non-essentials.

The result was a litany of store closings nationwide, with several old-line, brand-name retailers going out of business.

It's game over for names like Circuit City (OTC: CCTYQ), Cache (NASDAQ: CACH), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), J. Jill, Wickes Furniture, Levitz, Bombay, Linens 'n Things, Movie Gallery, Wilson Leather, KB Toys and The Sharper Image.

Traders that leveraged into darling names, like hedge fund idol Eddie Lampert's Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), got smoked. Shares of SHLD were trading at $105 when the checks when out. Today the stock is around $40.

Even Costco (NASDAQ: COST) -- the obvious slam dunk, aside from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) -- got slammed, falling from $75 to $45 following the so-called stimulus package.

Continue reading 2008 Trades Gone Bad #1: Going long the specialty retailers

Stock picks and pans for troubled times: DV, DLTR, BP, ATI, GE, C, MO, K, AAPL, CELG ...

Seems that even this shortened week was full of news and happenings, in the U.S. and around the world. With Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) being bailed out by the U.S. government at the beginning of the week and China announcing fiscal and monetary stimulus plans, the Dow industrials finished in positive territory four days in a row.

But as analysts and pundits, as well as each and every economic release -- in the U.S. and around the world -- remind us, we are not out of the woods yet and the rally has really been a bear-market rally.

Investors looking to take advantage of such rallies, or at least feel they hold stable long-term holdings, can search this week's BloggingStocks' contributors' picks:

Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) and Devry Inc. (NYSE: DV) -- It's often been suggested that educators do well in times of recession and high unemployment as workers look to improve or change their education to get a better job. Leo Fasciocco thinks these two are poised for a breakout.

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) reported stronger-than-expected earnings this week and also hiked its forecast. Not surprisingly, cash-strapped consumers turn more and more to discounters. Dollar Tree may continue to benefit from the economic downturn and the stock could also experience a short-squeeze rally.

Continue reading Stock picks and pans for troubled times: DV, DLTR, BP, ATI, GE, C, MO, K, AAPL, CELG ...

Saks adopts poison pill: Why?

A few days after Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim reported an 18% stake in the company, Saks (NYSE: SKS) adopted a poison pill, disclosed in a filing with the SEC.

Under the terms of the "shareholder rights plan," if Carlos Slim or anyone else acquires a stake of 20% in the company, other shareholders will be able to acquire shares at half price. The company said that the plan will "impose a significant penalty upon any person or group which acquires beneficial ownership of 20% or more of the Company's outstanding common stock without the prior approval of the Board of Directors."

Shareholders should be appalled. Shares of Saks closed at $4 on Wednesday, down from a 52-week high of $22.19. In 1993, the stock traded north of $15 per share.

So shareholders should not be happy with any plan that gives the company's current management and directors more control over the future: Their track record is one of miserable failure. Given Mr. Slim's track record of creating enormous wealth, shareholders would likely be better off with whatever plan he has up his sleeve.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "Saks spokeswoman Julia Bentley declined to comment on the timing of the announcement, but said that Saks had a rights plan for more than a decade that expired in March 2008."

It must be illustrative to look at the returns that shareholders have received over that period.

Carlos Slim goes on buying spree

Saudi Prince Alwaleed isn't the only foreign investor giving a vote of confidence to struggling Citigroup (NYSE: C). Mexican-based Inbursa bank, controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim Helu, recently took a significant stake in the company, spending about $150 million to buy 29 million Citigroup shares, according to published reports.

Citigroup's stock price had been under significant pressure in recent weeks, which was later exacerbated when it announced that it would cut 53,000 jobs. Last week, shares dropped below $5 for the first time since 1994. But late Sunday, the government announced that it would give the bank an additional $20 billion and would absorb up to $300 billion in potential losses, a model some experts should be used to deal with other struggling institutions. The move also seems to be sitting well with investors including Slim, marked by a 60% jump earlier this week.

But Citi isn't the only company that Slim, one of the richest men in the world, has had his eyes on. Regulatory filings show that he recently boosted his stake in luxury retailer Saks (NYSE: SKS), buying nearly 7.6 million shares of the company over a four-day period. Saks is one of many luxury retailers suffering during the economic turmoil as even the rich cut down on spending. But with Slim's move, he is now the company's largest shareholder.

Continue reading Carlos Slim goes on buying spree

The week in preview: High hopes for solar, not so much for home improvement

Last week, JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) posted a quarterly loss and lowered its guidance. But as interest in alternative energy continues to grow, analysts polled by Thomson Financial are still looking for good things from solar energy concerns scheduled to report earnings this week.

Strong growth at Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) in the third quarter prompted it to lift its guidance back in October. Analysts expect the Chinese company to post profits that are 76.3% higher than a year ago, or $1.18 per share on revenues of $268.4 million (+225.0%). Though Trina Solar missed estimates in the second quarter, analysts on average recommend buying TSL. Shares are down 81.4% from a year ago and trading near an all-time low.

Earnings of rival LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) are expect to have risen 47.9% to $0.71 per share on revenues of $486.7 million (+206.6%). Also based in China, LDK has not missed estimates in recent quarters; in fact, it blew past expectations in the second quarter. Yet the consensus recommendation is to hold LDK. Like Trina Solar, LDK's shares are trading near an all-time low; the share price has fallen 50.0% in the past year.

Analysts anticipate third-quarter earnings for Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to be a whopping 96.3% higher than a year ago, or $0.54 per share on revenues of $248.0 million (+154.5%). The company easily topped estimates in the previous quarter. ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) and Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) are also expected to report earnings growth of 29.7% ($0.37 per share) and 23.8% ($0.42 per share), respectively. All three of these stocks reached 52-week lows last week, and all are considered buys.

Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for solar, not so much for home improvement

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 03:26 AM

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