Analyst Upgrades

• TCF Financial (TCB) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Exelon (EXC) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Estee Lauder (EL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Webster Financial (WBS) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from underperform and Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Autodesk (ADSK) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

Analyst Upgrades

• SanDisk (SNDK) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• JPMorgan resumed Potash (POT) at overweight, up from neutral.
• Ariba (ARBA) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Cirrus Logic (CRUS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Tesoro (TSO) to overweight from equal weight.
• Solarfun Power (SOLF) was upgraded to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Barclays upgraded Ciena (CIEN) to overweight from equal weight.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Argo Group (AGII) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Green Mountain (GMCR) to buy from underperform and Southern Company (SO) to neutral from underperform.

Today was partly a China-tightening day and it was also a big flush out of commodities. There was follow-on selling in technology and many high-flyers were the biggest losers on no news at all. Stocks, bonds, and commodities all sold off despite better consumer confidence. If anything, today might even have some hallmarks of a sentiment shift in the market.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA: 11,192.58 (-90.52)
S&P 500: 2,518.21 (-37.31)
NASDAQ: 1,199.21 (-14.33)

Top Stock Analyst Calls
Next Week's Top Earnings

Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF - option chain) shares are rising today after the company announced Q2 earnings this morning, posting a profit of $40.2 million, or 11 cents per share. Excluding one-time items, SOLF earned 59 cents per share on revenue of $258.5 million. Analysts had forecast a profit of 25 cents per share on revenue of $212.8 million. Also helping the stock was news that South Korea-based Hanwha Chemical has agreed to take a 49.99% stake in the company, worth about $370 million. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SOLF.

SOLF opened this morning at $12.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.87 and a high of $12.30. As of 12:30, SOLF is trading at $10.97 up 0.72 (7.0%). The chart for SOLF looks neutral and S&P gives SOLF a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWRA) two levels to Buy from Sell after transitioning coverage. The firm believes Sunpower is emerging from the current recession as the CleanTech leader and has a $38-$48 price range on shares.
• Citigroup upgraded Varian Medical (NYSE: VAR) to Buy from hold as it believes capex pressure and health care reform uncertainty is priced into shares, and demand will return as hospital budgets stabilize. Citi raised its target on shares to $45 from $36.
• FBR Capital upgraded Gap (NYSE: GPS) to Outperform from Market Perform following the Q2 results to reflect product improvement and ongoing inventory control. The firm raised its target on shares to $24 from $18.
• Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ: SCHN) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
• UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wells Fargo.
• The Buckle (NYSE: BKE) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital.

Results for the tech stocks in last week's preview were a mixed bag, some beats, some misses, some in line. By and large, expectations for tech companies reporting results this week remain high, though. Here's what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are anticipating in the way of earnings, as compared to the same period of the previous year.

• Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF): $1.48 EPS (+73.0%) on sales of $1.3 billion (+171.0%)
• Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL): $0.21 EPS (+71.4%) on sales of $836.7 million (+27.4%)
• Solera Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SLH): $0.29 EPS (+51.7%) on sales of $137.0 million (+11.8%)
• Applied Signal Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: APSG): $0.14 EPS (+42.9%) on sales of $46.4 million (+17.4%)
• China Finance Online Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JRJC): $0.14 EPS (+42.6%) on sales of $13.3 million (+131.5%)
• OSI Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIS): $0.38 EPS (+36.8%) on sales of $162.0 million (+6.0%)
• LaBarge Inc. (AMEX: LB): $0.27 EPS (+33.3%) on sales of $71.6 million (+10.4%)
• Esterline Technologies Corp. (NYSE: ESL): $0.69 EPS (+11.6%) on sales of $374.6 million (+14.8%)
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL): $0.36 EPS (+11.1%) on sales of $15.9 billion (+7.8%)
• HEICO Corp. (NYSE: HEI): $0.46 EPS (+13.0%) on sales of $147.1 million (+10.5%)
• Daktronics Inc. (NASDAQ: DAKT): $0.17 EPS (flat) on sales of $141.5 million (+17.0%)
• Novell Inc. (NASDAQ: NOVL): $0.05 EPS (flat) on sales of $241.4 million (-0.7%)
• Omnivision Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI): $0.29 EPS (-17.1%) on sales of $172.5 million (-0.4%)
• Sigma Designs Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGM): $0.39 EPS (-18.8%) on sales of $58.7 million (+37.9%)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Solarfun Power, BioMarin Pharmaceutical and Genentech were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Jefferies initiated Solarfun Power (NASDAQ:SOLF) with a Buy rating and $18 target. The firm believes the one-third stake purchased by Good Energies and new management hires could generate operational momentum and that declining silicon costs may help margins.
  
• BioMarin Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:BMRN) was started at Oppenheimer with a Perform rating. The firm recommends waiting for Street estimates on Kuvan sales to moderate and for positive pipeline signals before adding to positions.
  
• Genentech (NYSE:DNA) was initiated at Citigroup with a Buy rating and $91 target. The firm believes several studies could lead to robust growth and points out the company's Q2 results showed Avastin reaccelerating due to growth in breast cancer.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Goldman reinstated Staples (NASDAQ:SPLS) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Zebra Tech (NASDAQ:ZBRA) was initiated with a Hold rating at KeyBanc.
  
• Rodman & Renshaw assumed coverage of Corcept Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CORT) with an Outperform rating and $8 target.
  
• AuthenTec (NASDAQ:AUTH) was initiated at JP Morgan with an Overweight rating and at Canaccord Adams with a Hold rating and $10 target.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, traders and fans of low priced stocks should ignore fallen blue chips like Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) and Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) and focus more on smaller volatile stocks like China Precisions Steel Inc (NASDAQ: CPSL) and Solarfun Power Holdings (NASDAQ: SOLF). Not just because fallen blue chip stocks are all about guessing major business trends and the time lags involved with pricing those into their stocks -- good luck with that -- but because these lesser known plays offer much more predictability due to their speculative nature.

Earnings, profit margins, product potential is all well and good for long-term investors in higher-priced names, but here in the gutter of the stock market (also known as penny stock land), those variables are highly irrelevant to predicting hourly, daily and even weekly price swings. Down here it's all about self fulfilling prophecies, pumping and message board hype.

Take for example, Middlebrook Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MBRK), mercilessly pumped by TheStreet.com's Adam Feuerstein for the past several months as a takeover candidate, as his sources indicate bidders in the $6 to $8 range. Now he might be right -- not that it's going to matter to the SEC -- and while he certainly can't compete with CNBC, in terms of effectiveness, his credibility and frequent teasing have predictably pumped this stock up a solid 20-30% so far.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) beat Q4 expectations and raised its fiscal 2009 guidance.
• Air France-KLM swung to a loss in the fourth quarter and warned of tough times ahead.
• BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) Q1 earnings soared, beating expectations, and it raised its forecast.
• Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) beat Q1 estimates on robust demand and favorable exchange rates.
• Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL) Q1 profit declined, hurt by an impairment charge and nearly flat sales.
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) beat Q1 earnings estimates by managing costs and inventory.
• Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) Q1 earnings tumbled on a one-time charge and the housing slump.
• Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) beat Q3 expectations and announced a share buyback program.
• Lenovo Group Ltd. (OTC: LNVGY) Q4 earnings more than doubled on strong global distribution.
• Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) reported a so-so first quater in line with Wall Street expectations.
• NetEase.com Inc. (NASDAQ: NTES) Q1 earnings declined due to increased tax burden.
• Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) missed Q1 earnings estimates but beat revenue expectations.
• Solarfun Power Holdings Co. (NASDAQ: SOLF) Q1 revenue surged 529% from the previous quarter.
• Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) Q1 revenues soared and earnings more than doubled.

Additional earnings highlights:
Hewlett-Packard, Target, Barnes & Noble, Campbell, Staples and others
Ford, Hormel, Limited Brands, Intuitive Surgical, PetSmart and others

Upcoming results to watch for include Borders (NYSE: BGP), Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO), Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), Costco (NASDAQ: COST), Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), HJ Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), Lions Gate (NYSE: LGF), and Tiffany (NYSE: TIF).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP), which saw its stock surge some 150% in 2007, didn't have such a good 2008 so far with its stock plunging about 44% year-to-date. But since setting a 52-week low of $28.19 on March 22, the stock has rebounded nicely, up over 55%. Roller coaster or what?!

Well, today, the maker of photovoltaic cells and modules said first-quarter earnings more than doubled on 76% higher revenue. Earnings reached $55.8 million, or 33 cents an American depositary share, beating analysts estimates of 28 cents. Revenue reached $434.5 million. Gross margins also expanded nicely and Suntech reiterated revenue estimates for 2008.

Early in the morning, STP shares jumped over 7% in premarket trading in response to the report but have not kept this up. Shares are now trading at $45.73, down over 1%, probably declining with the rest of the sector following Goldman Sachs's downgrade of Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF) to Sell from Neutral. SOLF shares are down over 18% taking LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) down with it -- 5%, 8% and 13% respectively, to name but a few.

Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) is recently down $4.81 to $21.66. Goldman Sachs says, "Premium valuation unwarranted; downgrade to Sell." SOLF manufactures PV cells and PV modules. SOLF June option implied volatility of 100 is below a level of 127 prior to Q1 EPS on May 21 and near its 26-week average of 99 according to Track Data.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) is recently up $3.71 to $28.95 in pre-open trading.

SOLF reported Q1 EPS of 32 cents versus consensus estimates of 16 cents. SOLF reported Q1 net revenue of $171 million, an increase of 529% from the fourth quarter of 2007.

SOLF is a manufactures PV cells and PV modules.

SOLF June option implied volatility of 127 is above its 26-week average of 98 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Solarfun Power (NASDAQ:SOLF) is up 19% on good earnings.

Adolor (NASDAQ:ADLR) is up 19% after getting approval for marketing of one of its drugs.

Red Robin Gourmet (NASDAQ:RRGB) is down almost 7% on poor earnings.

Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is off 3.5% without any visible news.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Forget about overwhelmingly random stock market noise and small daily percentage moves exemplified by the likes of all the most popular names such as Yahoo! Inc (Nasdaq: YHOO), Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C), Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE), Google Inc (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Apple Inc (Nasdaq: AAPL). Don't be fooled by the all-too-frequent daily commentary-those stocks are really only good for long-term investors and the few truly professional traders out there.

If you're neither, focus more on market inefficiencies because not only are they more predictable, but they're ideal for smaller investors and traders thanks to their illiquidity. Meaning the market offers up these high profit probability opportunities that the big boys can't and won't take advantage of-they're strictly for us little guys.

I'm talking about price moves created by the quirks of the finance industry itself-namely the media circus, stock promoters and hype that influence the great derided microcap market. For example, when a CNBC reporter inadvertently suckers amateurs by pumping a penny stock (good short selling opportunity as the stock is now down 50% in a month) or when a stock promoter is paid to hype a stock (another one down 50%+ in one month since).

Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on May 21.

SOLF, a manufacturer of PV cells and PV modules, closed at $22.84 Friday.

SOLF June option call implied volatility is at 123, puts are at 134; above its 26-week average of 96 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com