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Gold is up as investors seek shelter from the storm

Gold usually has an inverse relationship with the dollar. When the USD goes up, gold goes down, because theoretically a stronger dollar can buy more gold. Additionally, commodities in general tend to fall on a stronger dollar because it is often correlated with lower expectations for growth.

This week we saw a major correction in equities with banks leading the way. American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) was down more than 20% on Tuesday alone. This is a fear-driven decline, and we can see evidence of that in a positive correlation between gold and the dollar.

Continue reading Gold is up as investors seek shelter from the storm

15 favorite ETFs for 2009

For 26 years, at the start of each year, I've conducted an annual survey of newsletter advisors, asking for their favorite investment for the coming year. Until 2 or 3 years ago, their responses were almost always individual stocks and an occasional mutual fund.

Increasingly in recent years, many advisors have found their favorite positions to be exchange traded funds, whereby they can invest in a sector, region, or strategy without the inherent risk of an individual company. Indeed, in this year survey of 75 advisors, fully 1 out of 5 advisors chose ETFs.

ETFs were a popular choice for those seeking global exposure. Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report, selects the S&P China SPDR (NYSE: GXC) as his favored play. (Read the full article here.)

Nick Vardy sees opportunity in China, but also sees potential in a broader range of emerging global markets. The editor of Global Stock Investor looks to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ASE: EEM) as his top idea for 2009. (Read the full article here.)

Carl Delfeld of Chartwell Advisors also wants to own a basket of emerging markets stocks, but only small caps. His pick is the WisdomTree Emerging Market Small Cap (NYSE: DGS). (Read the full article here.)

Jim Lowell takes a similar view -- chosing global small caps -- but adds a further restriction. His recommended ETF limits its holdings to dividend paying stocks. Hence, the top pick in his Marketwatch ETF Trader is the WisdomTree International Small Cap Dividend (NYSE: DLS). (Read the full article here.)

ETFs an also be used to play a specific sector, such as consumer stocks. Leonard Goodall sees upside in companies making the "basics" such as soda, toothpaste and soap. In his No-Load Fund Investor, his top way to play this trend is the Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE: XLP). (Read the full article here.)

In addition to using ETFs to invest in a region, country or sector, these vehicles can also be used to invest in a certain strategy. For example, Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research, chooses the PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation ETF (NYSE: PYH), which rotates its holdings to only include stocks that earn Value Line's top investment rating. (Read the full article here.)

Doug Fabian, editor of Successful Investing, looks to PowerShares DB Crude (NYSE: DXO), an exchange-traded note. While this leveraged position goes up twice as much as the underlying index when it rises, it also goes down twice as much when the index declines. (Read the full article here.)

Paul Tracy, editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor takes a similar approach, but rather than speculate on the price of oil and gas, he looks to ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG), which invests in a basket of stocks operating within these sectors. (Read the full article here.)

The most popular choice in this year's survey was ETFs investing in gold. Both Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing, recommends the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD); it's price reflects 1/10th of an ounce of gold. (Read the full article here.)

Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast, also selects the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as her top investment ideas for the coming year. (Read the full article here.)

Mark Leibovit, market timer and editor of VRTrader, holds a long-term bullish view on gold and opts for upside leverage. His top pick is the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long (NYSE: DGP). (Read the full article here.)

Pamela Aden, co-editor for The Aden Forecast, also sees upside potential in gold but prefers to invest in the companies that mine for the precious metal. Her top pick is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). (Read the full article here.)

For greater leverage (and higher risk), Steve Rawls, editor of Tipping Point Stocks, suggests the ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL), which moves twice the rate of the underlying London gold price. (Read the full article here.)

Mike Larson, editor of Money & Markets, sees downside risk in financial stocks. But rather than try and select which stock might fall, he opts for a basket of financial players with the ProShares Trust Short Financials (NYSE: SEF). As an "inverse" fund, this moves in the opposite direction of the underlying index. (Read the full article here.)

And for even higher risk and volatility, Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Shorts, looks to the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF), an inverse double fund. Not only does it move in the opposite direction of financial stocks, but it moves twice as much. (Read the full article here.)

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Gold has outperformed nearly all other investments over the past few years," says Mary Anne Aden in The Aden Forecast. Here, the resource expert looks at her favorite play in the sector.

"It appears as though this trend for gold's outperformance will continue in the years ahead. Why?

"According to Bloomberg, the total amount of money provided by the U.S. government to rescue the financial system over the past year and a half has been $7.4 trillion.

"That amounts to $24,000 for every man, woman, and child, and it's totally unprecedented. All of this money will eventually fuel inflation and gold is the number one inflation hedge.

"Currently, President-elect Obama and his team are busy working on how to get the economy moving again. This is their top priority and one plan involves the largest infrastructure investment since the 1950s when all of the super highways were built. This will provide jobs and it'll hopefully help spur the economy.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"As my favorite stock for 2009, I recommend that investors buy the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), a gold exchange-traded fund," says international investing specialist Vivian Lewis.

In her Global Investing newsletter, which focuses on ADR and other global issues that trade on U.S. exchanges, the advisor explains, "I think every portfolio needs an inflation hedge in a period of unbridled monetary easing and pump priming."

Lewis explains, "SPDR Gold Trust does not depend on the economy coming right nor is it a play on recession and doom. Forecasting the macroeconomic trends in the U.S. and worldwide is very difficult in the current unprecedented economic crisis.

"But there is one thing you can be sure of: the measures already taken by governments around the world to stimulate their enfeebled companies and unclog their banking systems will result in an inflation problem.

"The vast government deficits engendered by the bailouts and stimulus will eventually have to be addressed. There aren't many options.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Option Update: Financial Select, SPDR Gold, Oil Services volatlity up

Financial Select Sector (NYSE: XLF) closed at $13.69. XLF October option implied volatility is at 175, November is at 123; above its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) closed at $89.90. Gold is recently up 3.99% to $921.90 according to Bloomberg. GLD October option implied volatility is at 62, November is at 53; above its 20-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting price movement.

Oil Services Holders (NYSE: OIH) closed at $97.60. Crude oil futures are recently down 4.98% to $82.28 according to Track Data. OIH holdings include BHI, BJS, DO, ESV, GRP, GSF, HAL, SLB, HC, NBR, NE, NOV, RDC, RIG, SII, SLB, TDW & WFT. OIH October option implied volatility is at 120, November is at 102 above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Our pick to profit from a McCain-Palin victory in November is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an exchange-traded fund that is designed to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion," explains Nate Pile, editor of Nate's Notes.

"We would buy gold in order to hedge ourselves against what we expect would be a heightened sense of uncertainty that foreign investors would express (at least initially) if the hard-to-predict 'mavericks' take the helm.

"I also continue to believe that we are still in the early stages of what will prove to be a multi-year boom for commodities, and much of the selling we have seen in gold appears to be for primarily emotional reasons.

"The recent strength of the dollar may partially explain the drop in gold, but for the most part, I think we have simply been witnessing some good old-fashioned panic selling.

"Unlike some other ETFs that invest in precious metals via the buying and selling of futures contracts on the underlying commodities, SPDR Gold Trust (formerly known as the streetTracks Gold Trust) actually buys and sells gold bullion, and each share of the Trust represents approximately 1/10th of an ounce of gold.

"However, while there are certain benefits to actually owning gold itself (as opposed to a derivative contract associated with the commodity), investors need to be aware that gold is considered a 'collectible' by the IRS, and thus investing in this ETF can result in a higher tax rate being applied to any gains that are achieved.

Continue reading McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Option Update: Commodity selloff causes higher volatility

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) closed at $45.25 Monday. Natural Gas futures are recently down 2.25% to $8.53 according to Bloomberg. BMO Capital Markets has a $68 target price on CHK. CHK September option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), a commodity-based exchange traded security, closed at $86.84. Gold is recently trading down 1.70% to $892.50. GLD option volume was heavy on August 4, 2008 with 106,112 contracts trading. GLD over all option implied volatility of 25 is near its 9-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) will report Q2 EPS on August 6. RIO, a Brazilian mineral company, closed at $26.36. Goldman has a Buy rating on RIO. RIO option volume was heavy on August 4, 2008, with 237,545 contracts trading. RIO August option implied volatility is at 66, September is at 56; above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.


Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

'Vital' buys: A trio of gold favorites

"Gold is the only financial asset that isn't someone else's liability and it's the only asset that's reliably held its value over time," notes global investor and resource expert Yiannis Mostrous.

In his Vital Resource Investor, he adds, "Indeed, gold has held its value for millenia. An ounce of gold still buys a quality men's suit, just as it did in the days of ancient Greece." Here, he reviews a trio of ideas, each for investors with various levels of risk tolerance.

Mostrous explains, "To date, Americans have never had to experience the society-wrenching events that have affected much of the world for centuries. But most of the globe's population hasn't forgotten the value of gold in times of extreme strife and social turmoil.

"And with incomes rising in many of these countries, beneficiaries have used their newfound savings to beef up their holdings. That's a trend with serious legs, particularly as Asia continues to grow.

"Then there's inflation, the ultimate debaser of all paper currencies. Despite surging energy and food prices, core inflation remains at elevated -- but still relatively moderate -- levels in most of the developed world.

"Developing world inflation, however, is a far different story. And many countries have seen sharp price acceleration across the board, including China.

Continue reading 'Vital' buys: A trio of gold favorites

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 08:30 AM

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