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Obama stock: SunPower (SPWR) set to shine

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"An Obama administration is likely to be very aggressive in subsidizing and promoting alternatives, including a windfall tax on oil firms to support development of alternative energy; SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) is our pick to play an Obama victory," says Elliott Gue in The Energy Strategist.

"Obama's energy plan calls for generating 10% of electricity from renewable sources by 2012 and 25% by 2025, an aggressive goal when you consider that less than 3% of America's power comes from non-hydropower renewables today.

"Obama has also proposed a windfall tax on oil companies that would be used to support the development of alternatives like solar and wind power.

"SunPower manufactures and sells photovoltaic (PV) solar panels for the residential, commercial and utility-scale markets.

"Residential and commercial solar systems are solar panels installed on the roofs of homes and businesses, designed to supplement power supply from the electric grid.

"And SunPower recently won a contract with Florida-based utility FPL to build the largest photovoltaic plant in North America, a 25 megawatt utility-scale plant in DeSoto County, Florida.

Continue reading Obama stock: SunPower (SPWR) set to shine

Obama stock: SunPower (SPWR) should shine

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Through the campaign season, Barack Obama has spoken at length about the need to boost spending on alternative energy; if he was elected, that should be good news for solar power company SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR)," says Roger Conrad, editor of The Utility Forecaster.

"Obama has discussed both the need to increase U.S. energy independence and to reduce carbon dioxide emissions blamed for global warming.

"The real promise for Sunpower, a leading manufacturer of solar panels, is in constructing utility-scale plants. The first of these is a 280-megawatt unit to provide power for Pacific G&E. Utilities in more than two dozen states, including California, are moving to meet mandates to get up to 20% of power sold from renewable sources.

"That's likely to become a national mandate under an Obama administration. Unlike homeowners and small businesses -- the primary customers for solar panels -- utilities are basically recession-resistant customers capable of dishing out huge contracts.

"Sunpower's move in that direction takes it to a whole new level of sustainability and growth. The shares are down on the financial crisis, as bankrupt Lehman is holding shares that could dilute the stock by around 3%. That gives aggressive investors a new opportunity to buy up to 80."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Election bets: Advisors vote on McCain and Obama stocks

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

Which stocks would benefit from a victory by either Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama? To help investors sort through the sectors and stocks best positioned to benefit in a post-election environment, we posed this question to some of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Importantly, this is not a partisan report; each participating advisor has provided a favorite stock for both candidates, focused not on political preferences but unbiased stock analysis. Below we feature those stocks and ETFs that the advisors believe will be the winners depending on which candidate prevails.

McCain Stocks:

Roger Conrad - Comcast (NYSE: CCW)
Gregg Early - Elbit Systems (NASDAQ: ESLT)
Elliott Gue - Paladin Resources (Toronto: PDN)
Doug Fabian - Market Vectors Nuclear Energy (NYSE: NLR)
Vivian Lewis - Barclays (NYSE: BCS)
Bill Martin - CGG Veritas (NYSE: CGV)'
Yiannis Mostrous - Lonking Holdings (OTC: CIMHF)
Carla Pasternak - Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (NYSE: EVT)
Nate Pile - SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
John Reese - General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)
Nathan Slaughter - USEC (NYSE: USU)
Paul Tracy - Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR)
Kelley Wright - CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL)
Tom Vass - Molex (NASDAQ: MOLX)
Martin Hutchinson - Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK), EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG)

Obama Stocks:

Roger Conrad - SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR)
Gregg Early - AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV)
Elliott Gue - SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR)
Doug Fabian - Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)
Vivian Lewis - Cosan (NYSE: CZZ)
Bill Martin - Geron (NASDAQ: GERN)
Yiannis Mostrous - Dr. Reddy's (NYSE: RDY)
Carla Pasternak - Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP)
Nate Pile - Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)
John Reese - American Eagle (NYSE: AEO)
Nathan Slaughter - Fluor (NYSE: FLR)
Paul Tracy - Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (NYSE: GEX)
Kelley Wright - Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH)
Tom Vass - Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR)
Martin Hutchinson - Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)

Closing Bell: Dow and S&P up slightly. Mixed day, yet felt like a win

Another low volume August trading day is behind us. Markets in the US responded rather well to economic data but falling oil prices and gold prices are beginning to take over in importance. Oil was down again and gold followed suit. There was generally still a mixed market most of the day. After what we have been seeing for longer than many care to remember we'd consider a mixed day a partial win. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Mentor Graphics (NASDAQ: MENT) was down 25% at $10.41 in today's final minutes. Its buyout has fallen through. The cause: financing issues. Go figure.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Dow and S&P up slightly. Mixed day, yet felt like a win

SunPower (SPWR) shoots higher on PG&E deal

SPWR logoSunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR - option chain) shares are soaring higher today after Pacific Gas and Electric Co. said it has chosen SPWR to supply up to 800 megawatts of renewable energy. On the news, an analyst at Merrill Lynch also upgraded SPWR to "Buy" from "Hold." If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SPWR.

SPWR opened this morning at $87.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $87.57 and a high of $93.93. As of 12:55, SPWR is trading at $93.26, up $14.69 (18.7%). The chart for SPWR looks neutral and S&P gives SPWR a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think, but willstill leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just four months as long as SPWR is above $55 at December expiration. Sunpower would have to fall by more than 40% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

SPWR hasn't been below $55 since March and has shown support around $71 recently. With the way the political climate is shaping up, it looks like some form of solar power should be here for quite a while.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SPWR.

Early analyst calls (Q) (CIEN) (LLY)

UBS downgraded SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) to Neutral from Buy, according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup upgraded Qwest (NYSE:Q) to Buy from Hold and Morgan Keegan upgraded Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN) to Outperform from Market Perform.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) was raised to Neutral at HSBC, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) was cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

Mailbag: Using Green for Green Stocks

Minyanville's Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. Here he answers a reader's burning question about "green" stocks. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Udall,

Do you have any opinions on Zoltek Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT)? My wife wants me to buy everything "green". Her last "green" company idea was General Electric (NYSE: GE). I know, right? I bought a little just to quiet the noise level. I'm into a little SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR). Does Zoltek have legs?

Thanks,

Minyan L.

Minyan L.,

First, that's hysterical. Second, a word of caution: Going all green, or all of any one thing, is something I'd never advocate. If you do, you do so at your own risk, as nothing in the market is ever as obvious as it seems, especially when it seems totally obvious.

Continue reading Mailbag: Using Green for Green Stocks

Tech Vibes

Editor's Note: This post comes courtesy of Sean Udall, a wise player in the tech field. For more, visit www.minyanville.com.

Interesting article on Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone "potential" teardown. Implications are that the 3G iPhone will carry higher margins than previous model. We will see shortly and I still expect Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) to benefit from the actual teardown.

Speaking of Broadcom, the company got the all clear on a patent infringement deal with SiRF Technology Holdings (NASDAQ: SIRF) and I like the emerging technical setup on BRCM.

Elsewhere, Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) reports today and has been a solid tech name this year, really many years for that matter. I don't expect any big surprises.

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) is at the William Blair growth conference. Gaming sales were reported strong again last week. This is probably a cheap solid grower but I prefer the growing online gaming model, I've discussed on the Buzz in the past.

SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) was upgraded this morning and presenting at an Alternative Energy conference on Wednesday. I was going to trade this again but the analyst action is spiking the stock today.

Evergreen Solar's (NASDAQ: ESLR) shareholder and analyst meetings is scheduled this week and I'm thinking this could fuel bullish action.

Regarding Comverge (NASDAQ: COMV) and EnerNOC (NASDAQ: ENOC), I overheard some bullish comments on these stocks on CNBC this morning. I've discussed COMV on the buzz previously and ENOC is their sister company. Both companies offer technology solutions for managing the power grid more efficiently and I think both stocks are cheap emerging growth stocks.

Position in BRCM, ESLR, COMV.

Analyst upgrades: HRB, TLB, SPWR, AG, EBAY, SNDK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: H&R Block, Talbots and SunPower were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer believes H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) has shown several catalysts over the past few months, most importantly the sale of its mortgage business. The firm, which upgraded shares to Outperform from Perform, believes the company's strong 2008 tax season will lead to future growth, and they think the stock can appreciate 20%+, as catalysts are not yet fully reflected in the stock.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company has several sources of cash to avoid a liquidity crisis, charge card EPS contribution provides good visibility, improved merchandise margins, and better merchandising.
  • Credit Suisse raised SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) to Outperform from Neutral citing strength in Italy and other geographies.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Agco (NYSE: AG) was raised at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • UBS upgraded Metso Oyg (OTC: MXCYY) to Buy from Neutral.
  • JMP Securities upgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Market Perform from Underperform.
  • Stifel upgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Buy from Hold.

Analyst downgrades: SNDA, ESLR, SPWR and MAR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Shanda Interactive, Evergreen Solar, SunPower and Marriott were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Shanda Interactive (NASDAQ:SNDA) to Hold from Buy following the company's lower-than-expected guidance as they see a lack of positive catalysts.
  • Merrill downgraded Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR) and SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) to Sell from Neutral citing a potential reduction in German tariffs.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Marriott (NYSE:MAR) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing economic pressures on business travel.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Vivus (NASDAQ:VVUS) was downgraded at Wachovia to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • UBS lowered Juniper(NASDAQ:JNPR) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Cemex (NYSE:CX) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.

Option Update: SunPower volatility low; Germany considers tariff reductions

SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), a manufacturer of solar systems, is recently down $3.30 to $79.70 in pre-open trading.

Calyon says: "The German solar feed-in tariff (FIT) is under fire, as lawmakers are considering an accelerated digression that would reduce rates 25% by 2010 versus 15% under current law."

SPWR over all option implied volatility of 60 is below its 26-week average of 70 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk. SPWR puts are priced higher than calls because SPWR is difficult to borrow.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil's not the widespread tax it used to be

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.

Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.

Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.

Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.

Or how about all of the companies involved with process and flow control and efficient motors: Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take), Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take), Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take) and Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) (Cramer's Take). Those work higher with higher energy prices. CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take), Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) (Cramer's Take), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) (Cramer's Take), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) (Cramer's Take) are smaller energy users than trucks, and they ship plenty of ethanol and fertilizer.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil's not the widespread tax it used to be

Analyst initiations: SPWR, ESLR and ABT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: SunPower, Evergreen Solar and Abbott Lab were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Citigroup believes SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) is faced with high cell production costs, its silicon cost and installation cost advantages are increasingly commoditized and finds the risk/reward even at current levels. Shares were initiated with a Hold rating and $105 target.
  • Citigroup believes Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) faces significant financing requirements over the next few years, making it difficult to see a sustained period of EPS growth beyond the $1 range. The firm sees downside to $5/share. Shares were assumed with a Sell rating and $8 target.
  • UBS started Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) with a Buy rating and $61 target. The firm is positive on Humira potential growth and expects Xience to drive vascular operating margins to positive.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Cypress Semi (CY) lower on Sunpower downgrade

CY logoCypress Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: CY) stock is falling this morning after an analyst at Credit Suisse downgraded SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), in which CY has invested, to "Neutral" from "Outperform." There are also analyst comments out there today about CY that could be hurting the stock. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CY.

After hitting a one-year low of $16.72 last January, the stock hit a one-year high of $42.79 in November. This morning, CY opened at $26.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.68 and a high of $26.23. As of 11:05, CY is trading at $25.30, down $1.41 (-5.3%). The chart for CY looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bear-call credit spread above the $40 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 4.2% return in 2 months as long as CY is below $40 at March expiration. Cypress would have to rise by more than 21% before we would start to lose money.

CY hasn't been above $40 for more than a few day at a time in the past year and has shown resistance around $30 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings next week impress investors, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance CY might find around $40, where the stock topped out twice since October.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CY or SPWR.

What 'American Idol' can teach you about solar stocks

"I can't believe I won," cried Jordin Sparks, winner of last year's American Idol. Within seconds, industry and non-industry drones alike began formulating ways to attach themselves to her in some way, crazy in anticipation of the inevitable riches.

Months later, several Wall Street types were overheard saying, "I can't believe oil keeps going higher, alternative energy stocks are going to be hot, hot, hot," and thousands of investors went wild buying shares of the dozen or so solar stocks, crazy in anticipation of the inevitable riches.

Each industry has its stars: Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood and Clay Aiken -- as determined by album sales -- for American Idol, First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWR) and MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) -- as determined by stock performance -- for the solar industry.

Continue reading What 'American Idol' can teach you about solar stocks

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 11:43 PM

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