This post is part of Japan: A Special Report for Investors.

"Japan's tsunami has struck worldwide," says Richard Moroney, the editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, which has maintained a model portfolio of blue chip stocks for over 50 years.

Here, he reviews a number of the top buy recommendations in the newsletter's portfolios to determine the potential risk posed by the recent tragic developments in Japan.

Stocks cited as "Focus List Buys" are are those issues that the service expect to significantly outperform the market over the next 12 months.

Analyst Upgrades

• First Solar (FSLR) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• NYSE Euronext (NYX) to outperform from market Perform at Wells Fargo.
• GSI Commerce (GSIC) and Cabela's (CAB) to overweight from neutral, as well as NovaMed (NOVA) to neutral from underweight, at Piper Jaffray.

Analyst Downgrades

• St. Jude Medical (STJ) to market perform from outperform at Wells Fargo.
• OmniVision (OVTI) to neutral from outperform at RW Baird.
• J & J Snack Foods (JJSF) to neutral from buy at Janney Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• TCF Financial (TCB) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Exelon (EXC) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Estee Lauder (EL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Webster Financial (WBS) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from underperform and Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Autodesk (ADSK) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

Analyst Upgrades

• Boeing (BA) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Alcoa (AA) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• BP (BP) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.
• Office Depot (ODP) and Staples (SPLS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Kennametal (KMT) and Polyone (POL) to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Airgas (ARG) to outperform from market perform at William Blair.
• EchoStar (SATS) to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.

Analyst Upgrades

• Sapient (SAPE) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Kroger (KR) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Harman (HAR) to overweight from neutral and Deutsche Bank (DB) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Savient (SVNT) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• LabCorp (LH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) and Landstar System (LSTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Essex Property Trust (ESS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Host Hotels (HST) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• SPX Corp. (SPW) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) to buy from neutral.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Pulte Group (PHM) to neutral from underperform. Note that Citigroup downgraded the stock.
• Ameristar Casinos (ASCA) was upgraded to neutral from sell at Merriman.
• Citigroup upgraded Kimco Realty (KIM) to hold from sell.
• Mistras (MG) was upgraded to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Devon Energy (DVN) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Garmin (GRMN) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at PacCrest.

Analyst Upgrades

• JMP Securities upgraded Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to outperform from market perform based on valuation and checks that indicate strength in enterprise PCs, high growth geographies and light laptops. The firm has a $50 target on the stock.
• RBC Capital upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to outperform from sector perform, citing the company's improving growth plans and attractive risk profile.
• Goldman upgraded FormFactor (FORM) to neutral from sell, but lowered its price target to $6 from $10. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade.
• MCG Capital (MCGC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• CRH (CRH) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Melco Crown (MPEL) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst Upgrades

• Jefferies upgraded St. Jude (STJ) to buy from hold and raised its target to $49 from $39. The firm cites valuation and the positive impact from the Boston Scientific (BSX) ICD recall for the upgrade. Shares were also upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman, as the firm sees upside for shares into Q1 results.
• RBC Capital upgraded EMC Corp. (EMC) to outperform from sector perform and raised its target to $22 from $21. The firm upgraded shares based on valuation and believes the company can meet or modestly beat March quarter expectations.
• Auriga upgraded MetroPCS (PCS) to buy from hold as it believes customer migration away from postpaid to prepaid may be accelerating. The firm raised its target for shares to $9 from $7.
• Caterpillar (CAT) was raised to outperform from neutral at Baird.
• Best Buy (BBY) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• Expedia (EXPE) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded CME Group (CME) to Buy from Hold and has a $330 target on the stock. The firm believes increased regulatory concerns have created a buying opportunity and notes that CME Group's fundamentals are stable-to-improving.
• Susquehanna upgraded Priceline.com (PCLN) to Positive from Neutral and has a $230 target on the stock. The firm believes Priceline.com likely outperformed expectations in Q4.
• Citigroup upgraded AutoZone (AZO) to Buy from Hold citing an attractive valuation, favorable industry trends, and the potential for margin expansion. The firm raised its target price on shares to $188 from $176.
• Genzyme (GENZ) was raised to Sell from Conviction Sell at Goldman.
• Disney (DIS) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded at Collins Stewart to Buy from Hold.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reported a surprise Q3 profit due to cost cutting; revenue topped estimates as well.
• Avis Budget Group Inc. (NYSE: CAR) said a proposed offering of $250 million in notes could reduce earnings.
• Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) earnings prospects garnered it an upgrade from one analyst.
• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) earnings prospects resulted in an upgrade from one analyst.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) lower Q4 earnings topped analysts' expectations, lifting shares.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) higher Q4 earnings beat analysts' estimates but sales were just OK.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) to Buy from Hold on expectations that stable volumes and a better outlook for currency and commodities will lead to higher earnings visibility. The firm raised its price target on shares to $62 from $52.
• FBR Capital upgraded Goodrich (NYSE: GR) to Outperform from Market Perform as it finds the stock's valuation compelling following the recent pullback. The firm raised its target on shares to $65 from $46.
• William Blair upgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Outperform from Market Perform after channel checks indicated demand is accelerating as the firm finds the stock's valuation compelling at current levels.
• Robbins & Myers (NYSE: RBN) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Viacom B (NYSE: VIA.B) were upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill, while News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says picking stocks -- or worse, picking a bottom -- remains a dangerous activity.

Sometimes it is so bad that it is BAD! Don't laugh at that seeming bit of counterintuitive logic. Every investment professional knows that because of the way economic cycles and central banks work, you are often looking for signs of such stress and negativity that it is so bad it is GOOD because of what the banks can do and what a bottom looks like.

This time it hasn't worked out that way. This time, what's bad is bad and getting worse. This weekend, David Carr in The New York Times wrote an excellent piece about the mistake of looking for a silver lining, something that news media does.

Analyst upgrades:

• Barclays upgraded Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised their target to $35 from $28 citing the company's earnings power and free cash flow generation.
  
• William Blair upgraded St. Jude Medical (NYSE:STJ) to Outperform from Market Perform following the company's Q4 results on valuation and the company's "steady growth."
  
• Wunderlich upgraded Liberty Interactive (NASDAQ:LINTA) to Buy from Hold as they believe debt concerns are overdone. The firm thinks that language in the proxy statement for the Liberty Entertainment hard spin suggests that cash and cash flow from the stub Entertainment tracker could be used to provide inter-company support to Interactive. The firm raised their target to $5 from $4.25.
• Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE:LYG) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  
• BB&T (NYSE:BBT) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Sell List.
  
• Patni Computer (NYSE:PTI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

You've probably heard that heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the U.S. I don't mean to be a total downer in bringing up this bit of trivia; in fact, the prevalence of cardiac-related illnesses is actually a boon for Minnesota-based St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ). The company is engaged in the design, manufacture, and distribution of various cardiovascular medical devices, including pacemakers, replacement valves, and many more.

In mid-October, St. Jude reported higher-than-expected third-quarter sales. The medical-device firm also tightened up its full-year outlook, primarily due to the effects of currency fluctuations. However, Chief Financial Officer John Heinmiller said STJ is "confident" it can meet or exceed Wall Street's 2009 earnings estimates.

St. Jude also believes it's well-insulated from macroeconomic turmoil. CEO Daniel Starks observed that his company's products address "key health concerns," which means they're hardly discretionary items. "We expect very minimal impact from the broader and economic dynamics, and think we're in a good defensive position that way," Stark noted.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Neutral from Sell and said liquidity is no longer a near-term concern. The firm lowered Pacific Sunwear's target to $1.50 from $3. Citigroup upgraded shares to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness and believes Pacific Sunwear has sufficient liquidity to remain a going concern.
  
• Calyon believes Reliant Energy (NYSE: RRI) will be successful in unwinding the Merrill Lynch Retail credit sleeve and obtaining alternative collateral. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Add.
  
• JP Morgan said Cogent's (NASDAQ: COGT) position in homeland security and the defense markets make it less sensitive to an economic downturn, making valuation attractive. JP Morgan upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $13 from $10.50.
• Goldman added Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) to its Conviction Buy List and removed Riverbed (NASDAQ: RVBD) from the Conviction Sell List.
  
• J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) was raised to Buy from Underperform at Merrill Lynch.