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Eight ways to define the recession

We've watched stock market numbers bounce around for two years. Unemployment stats have served as unpleasant reminders that, for some, leading indicators haven't translated to reality. We look for so many ways to understand the brutal economic environment with which we've had to contend, and all the choices can make your head spin. So, let's make it simple. Here are eight ways to tack a label onto the financial world in which we live.

1. Lost market value
Total stock market losses from October 2007's top to March 2009's bottom: $11.2 trillion
Total gains in the stock market since the bottom: $4.6 trillion
Lost ground: $6.6 trillion

2. Bad days
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that happened in 2008, by point drops: 60%
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the DJIA that happened in 2008, by percentage drops: 30%

3. Mutual funds
Value of mutual fund assets at the end of 2007: $6.5 trillion
... and a year later: $3.7 million
Lost value: $2.8 trillion

But, it got a little better at the end of August 2009: $4.5 trillion (value of assets)

Continue reading Eight ways to define the recession

When to buy the dips in the stock market?

With about a 50% run up since January, the stock market is poised for a dip. That is the conventional wisdom being touted by the analysts.

The idea is a good one, but what do you mean by a dip? This is where it experts disagree as usual. Let's take a sampling of some leading pundits:

  • Sam Stovall, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, said: "But now (referring to continued high unemployment) that economic waters appear more choppy and third quarter earnings session is about to begin, are investors less inclined than they were a few weeks back to buy stocks on market dips?"

Continue reading When to buy the dips in the stock market?

Roubini: Markets are up 'too much, too fast'

Which way is the stock market headed, up or down? That question is on the minds of many investors these days.

We've a 50% run up since the January lows. Nouriel Roubini said: "Markets have gone up too much, too fast." I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U-shaped.

Continue reading Roubini: Markets are up 'too much, too fast'

Market ends the day lower, but up for the month

stocks post gains in septemberThe market was able to stage a late day rally which erased some of its earlier losses, but still ended the day in the red, with all 3 major indexes closing down on the day.

September is typically not a good month for the market, but even with today's losses this September was positive, as more and more investors have started to believe the economy is coming out of its recession.

Continue reading Market ends the day lower, but up for the month

U.S. Federal Reserve says that Americans are $2 trillion dollars richer!

The Federal Reserve said that Americans are $2 trillion dollars richer in the second quarter. Where did all this money come from?

You guessed it, the stock market. The value of U.S. stock holdings rose 21.6%

Other factors came into play. Home prices were up 1.8% and that added to your wealth. Americans are also paying off their debt. Household debt shrank by 1.7% in the second quarter.

Continue reading U.S. Federal Reserve says that Americans are $2 trillion dollars richer!

Comfort Zone Investing: Can the market keep the rally going?

We've seen the market move up in a rather dramatic way since March, which is somewhat logic defying because most of the news has been bad over that time.

Certainly earnings weren't anything to shout about, but many of the forecasts sounded optimistic. Unemployment keeps growing. That's never good for the market. Housing lately is starting to find footing, stopping the continuous slide of lower prices, but over the last 18 months it's been in a depression. So with all the bad news, can the market keep its momentum?

Most likely it will. That's because the market looks ahead by at least six to nine months, and ignores the here and now. With the latest economic data and the re-appointment of Benjamin Bernanke as the Fed chief, investors have reason to believe there are numbers, not just hope, behind the latest market moves.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Can the market keep the rally going?

Before the bell: Stock markets taking a breather

The stock market seems like it needs a rest today.

After posting strong performances earlier this week following growing optimism about the economy and the reappointment of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the main indexes appear headed toward a muted opening. The Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq Composite Index were trading down in pre-market action.

Whether this rally will hold depends on a few things. The U.S. Commerce Department is due to issue its durable goods report for July later this morning. As the Associated Press notes, "Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predict orders to U.S. factories for items expected to last at least three years increased 3 percent in July, due in part to increased auto sales from the government's Cash for Clunkers program." They fell in June.

Continue reading Before the bell: Stock markets taking a breather

Mobius says stocks will drop by a third

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., believes that the global stock market will fall by up to 30%. The strong rebound following last year's calamity is likely to be impeded by profit-taking on the upswing. Basically, an increase of 70%, he says, will lead to a decrease of 20 to 30%.

The greatest risk in a recovering stock market comes from the increase in new stock and bond issuances, Mobius says. To participate in these new deals, investors would have to liquidate existing positions, which can put downward pressure on the market as a whole. Money doesn't come from nowhere, and new capital will come on the backs of the previous investments.

Continue reading Mobius says stocks will drop by a third

Oil, the stock market and economic inconsistency

There is too much noise on Wall Street, and it becomes clearer with each passing day why some of the best money managers and investors in the world choose to do their business from somewhere else.

The most famous of all being 'my pal' Warren Buffett who has operated his business from the amazing "financial Mecca" of Omaha, Nebraska.

Today I wake up to the news that the market is down because oil is down because the world economy may not be healing as fast as many had hoped.

Continue reading Oil, the stock market and economic inconsistency

Comfort Zone Investing: Beware the obvious

Inflation. Everybody agrees it's coming back. Make that roaring back. No one says otherwise. After all, the government is spending money like it's someone else's (it is ... ours). With extreme stimulus, surely inflation will have to be a problem, commodity prices have to rise, real estate has to go up, too much money will chase too few goods and services. That's the classic definition of inflation.

It's obvious what investors have to do: they have to buy inflation-proof investments, such as gold, commodities and real estate. Maybe it's too obvious. Maybe if everyone else is buying those things, there's reason to pause and reconsider.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Beware the obvious

Pakistan: Best bond investment this year

Looking for a new emerging market? Try Pakistan! Despite a continued sense of tension with India and open hostility along the Afghan border, the country's bond market is the best in the world, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Debt sold by Pakistan has surged 88% this year -- topping the 45 emerging markets that JPMorgan watches and the 19 that Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: BAC) follows.

And, the stock market may be next.

Money managers, according to a report by Bloomberg, believe that the Pakistani equity market could become the next global superstar. The Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index is only trading at 9.6X earnings, making it the lowest in Asia (excluding Japan) . . . and this follows a 21% increase year-to-date.

Continue reading Pakistan: Best bond investment this year

Quick Take: Why is the market down today?

The market is down again today and there are millions of people trying to figure out why. Some will tell you they know why and give you a plausible rationale. There may be bits of truth here and there but there is also an arbitrary nature too. If not arbitrary, then haphazard.

The market may be down because nobody in Washington - Obama, Benanke or Geitner - made a speech today pounding the drum for a brighter economic outlook.

It could be because oil prices have been slowly rising again as inventories are drawn down.

Continue reading Quick Take: Why is the market down today?

Bear rally or not, investors seem shock-resistant

The market has been leaving the doubters behind for the last nine weeks. If there is no pullback based on the bear market theories (that do make some sense), then all those folks who thought this push upward was phony are going to be sorry -- and poorer!

Bad news, modest earnings and even losses have not brought down the overall market. Low expectations for growth going forward, and the bankruptcies of major U.S. corporations only cause a short pause. Corporate scandals, shamed corporate executives and excesses have not shaken the market. Even multi-billion dollar con artists might make the headlines but they do not rattle anyone's nerves any more unless of course they had placed money in their slimy hands.

Over the course of the last year we have witnessed the dramatic collapse of the largest commercial bank in the world, Citigroup (NYSE: C), the largest thrift in the world; Washington Mutual; the largest insurance company in the world; American International Group (NYSE: AIG) and the largest automobile company in the world, General Motors (NYSE: GM) -- all U.S. based.

Continue reading Bear rally or not, investors seem shock-resistant

Alien sightings, government cover-ups, and investment risk

Let's talk about investment risk and alien sightings. How do you assess risk? What is your exposure? What are the odds? What kind of fact checking do you do? What return is appropriate for what level risk? What is your time frame? Do you ask yourself the hard questions?

An ex-astronaut claims that the aliens have landed on earth. According to CNN: former NASA astronaut Edgar Mitchell and other UFO enthusiasts are concerned, the real story is happening elsewhere. Mitchell, who was part of the 1971 Apollo 14 moon mission, asserted Monday that extraterrestrial life exists, and that the truth is being concealed by the United States and other governments.

All of this alien talk is baloney. The "government" could not keep a secret if the entire universe were at risk. The odds that multiple governments could keep a common secret and that not one person would provide the slightest conclusive evidence are microscopic.

Continue reading Alien sightings, government cover-ups, and investment risk

Hedge fund manager Barton Biggs joins the chorus of bulls

In the past week or so, a number of highly-respected investors -- including long-time bears -- have lined up to pronounce the recent stock market rally the real deal.

Now former Morgan Stanley Chief Global Strategist Barton Biggs, who currently manages hedge fund Traxis Partners -- appeared on CNBC's Fast Money to say that he too thinks the current rally will develop into a long-term bull run.

Continue reading Hedge fund manager Barton Biggs joins the chorus of bulls

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 08:05 AM

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