It's Monday morning. Looking at the boards, the dollar is weaker and gold climbs to another record high. Spot gold in London traded at $1,133.07 per ounce. The December gold futures contract traded at $1,133.50 per ounce.

Again today, the dollar traded down, with the December dollar contract trading at 75.105, down 32 (prices as of 8:39 EDT). The other precious metals followed gold higher. December silver traded at $17.815 per ounce up 43.5 cents. Platinum was at $1,428.90 per ounce, up $41.20. Palladium traded at $365.15, up $8.40

The stock market is rallying. Commodities are on a tear. Yet the dollar is falling. Why?

There are several reasons for the drop in the dollar, but the most obvious and simple answer is that investors around the world are selling dollars and using the money to buy stocks and commodities, particularly oil and gold.

Last week India announced that it had bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF.) At an average of say $1000.00 per ounce, the transaction amounted to about $7 trillion dollars. Chances are that India sold dollars from their sovereign fund to buy the gold.

It's almost October and the pundits are at again, predicting that the market should sell off again. Let's look at their reasoning.

• We have an ongoing deterioration in consumer debt.
• Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate, says that "the U.S. banking sector is now in worse shape than before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
• Bank profitability is expected to come under pressure.
• The U.S. housing outlook is grim.

On Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 200 points before closing a little better. No real reason for it. Pundits suggested the drop in commodity prices (oil and gold were down a little, not enough to comment on) were the reason for the dip, suggesting the economy may not be as robust nor inflation as big a problem as thought on the Friday before.

But here's the real scoop: the market has rallied well beyond a level where economic numbers justify.

The stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sharply rebounded from its low of 6440 in March of this year. Currently, as this is written, the notable index is hovering around 8400. That's an increase of 30%. Not bad for two months of trading. While the average is made up of only 30 stocks, those 30 stocks are some of the best. There are also some real losers, such as General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C). But for the most part, the index contains the strongest industries with some of the strongest stocks. With that kind of recovery already in place, is it too late to buy stocks or is this just the start of a major rally?

Most CEOs expect things to get worse. Chief Executive Officers of major U.S. corporations were more pessimistic than three months ago about their business and the economy over the next six months, the Business Roundtable reported last Tuesday. The CEO confidence index fell to negative 5.0 in the first quarter from 16.8 in the fourth quarter. It was at 79.5 a year ago. The CEOs expect the economy to contract 1.9% in 2009. Over the next six months, about two-thirds of CEOs expect lower sales, lower capital spending and fewer jobs at their company. About a quarter expect sales to rise in the next six months, while less than 10% expect to increase hiring or capital spending.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Lately I've looked in vain for good news. I mean news that has some substance, that would make a real difference to an investor. I can't find any. In fact, I feel like a pinball, bouncing from one rubber post to another, each one accelerating the downward, inevitable path toward the black hole at the bottom of the board.