UBS upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Neutral from Sell and said liquidity is no longer a near-term concern. The firm lowered Pacific Sunwear's target to $1.50 from $3. Citigroup upgraded shares to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness and believes Pacific Sunwear has sufficient liquidity to remain a going concern.
Calyon believes Reliant Energy (NYSE: RRI) will be successful in unwinding the Merrill Lynch Retail credit sleeve and obtaining alternative collateral. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Add.
JP Morgan said Cogent's (NASDAQ: COGT) position in homeland security and the defense markets make it less sensitive to an economic downturn, making valuation attractive. JP Morgan upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $13 from $10.50.
Goldman added Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) to its Conviction Buy List and removed Riverbed (NASDAQ: RVBD) from the Conviction Sell List.
J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) was raised to Buy from Underperform at Merrill Lynch.
The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.
Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.
Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) showed, once again, that it is one of the worst performing large-tech companies in America. The firm said its loss will be between 25 cents and 35 cents per share for the three months ended Sept. 28. Excluding one-time charges, the drop is between 2 cents and 12 cents per share. To make matters worse, it will probably take goodwill impairment charges for companies it has bought over the last two years. In other words, Sun paid too much.
Sun's revenue is also expected to be light, at about $3 billion.
It is old news to say that Sun has not come up with a single product compelling enough to get it out of the mud. Its servers are no better than those marketed by IBM (NYSE: IBM) or other large hardware companies. Corporate customers tend to go with the supplier that has the largest service force and best balance sheet.
The announcement does raise the question of why Sun is not being sold by its board. The stock trades at just above $5, down from a 52-week high of $24.08. So far this year, it is off nearly 70% while IBM is down only 12%.
Sun has a clean balance sheet with plenty of cash and modest debt. It would fit well with a number of larger companies that would like a larger part of the global server market.
With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Refining Sector, International Game Tech and Gilead Sciences were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Bernstein downgraded the Refining Sector to Market Weight from Overweight based on the weakening earnings outlook for the group. The firm downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) and Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) to Market Perform from Outperform.
Citigroup downgraded shares of International Game Tech (NYSE: IGT) to Hold from Buy following the company's lower than expected guidance and removed the stock from their Top Picks Live List. The firm lowered their target to $25 from $45. Shares were also downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform following the company's lower-than-expected results.
Jefferies cut Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) to Hold from Buy following the company's Q2 results as they see limited upside catalysts and a matured core HIV drug franchise. The firm maintains a $56 target. BMO Capital downgraded GILD to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation, flattening HIV sales, Letairis growth below expectations, and increased R&D costs.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) was downgraded at RBC Capital to Outperform from Top Pick.
Goldman removed Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) from the Conviction Buy List.
Progressive (NYSE: PGR) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Ryanair and HSBC Holdings were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Underweight from Neutral citing expected margin pressure due to high leverage to sweet crude. Goldman also downgraded shares of Sunoco to Neutral from Buy.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) to Sell from Hold as they believe the European airlines sector will trade well below book value until the companies deal with higher oil prices.
UBS cut HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the potential for higher losses at the company's household unit and weak performance at its U.S. bank.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Broadpoint lowered MTS Medication (NYSE: MPP) to Neutral from Strong Buy.
HSBC cut Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) to Neutral from Overweight.
Goldman downgraded CNH Global (NYSE: CNH) to Neutral from Buy and PetroChina (PTR) to Sell from Buy.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Thomson Reuters and Heritage-Crystal Clean were today's noteworthy initiations:
Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. The firm sees risk to 2008 Street estimates given the consumer slowdown in the U.S. and potential ASP and margin pressure as channel inventory is worked down.
Morgan Stanley assumed Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) with an Underweight rating and expects revenue growth in the company's financial business to slow sharply into 2009.
William Blair believes Heritage-Crystal Clean (NASDAQ: HCCI) has the opportunity to gain market share over the next several years as a result of its differentiated parts-cleaning programs, strong sales organization, and experienced management team. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Lehman initiated Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) with Equal Weight ratings and targets of $20 and $17 and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) with Overweight ratings and targets of $195, $144 and $59, respectively.
Pacific Growth started Spectranetics (NASDAQ: SPNC) with a Neutral rating.
Merrill reinstated Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) with Buy ratings and price targets of $110, $105 and $125, respectively.
Sunoco (NYSE: SUN), a petroleum refiner & marketer, is recently up 33 cents to $72.77.
WTI crude futures are up 3.51% to $99.35. Soleil says, "We maintain our positive outlook for the stock, expecting SUN to unlock some of value of the company via strategic actions in 2008. We reiterate our Buy rating and $94/share price target."
SUN overall option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average of according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.
Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVAD) who provide network computing infrastructure solutions that include computer systems, software, storage, and services, announced that they have added Israel as the fifth country to join their Sun Startup Essentials program. The program helps eligible start-up companies by allowing them to purchase a range of discounted Sun products and services, including the award-winning Sun Fire x64 servers and Sun Fire servers with CoolThreads technology. Program members can also work with Sun worldwide hosting partners Layered Technologies and Navisite, plus regional hosting partner NTT Europe Online, to rent discounted Web-hosting infrastructure based on Sun technologies.
Sun is doing this to plant a seed for the future. As they work with start-ups, the more successful these companies get, the more they will end up using Sun's suite of products. It seems to me that this is a brilliant program. To date, outside the United States, they run the country in China, India, U.K., and now Israel. Speaking about the reasons for starting the program in Israel, Juan Carlos Soto, vice president of Market Development at Sun, said "We hope to sign up 500 companies to the program.This country is an obvious place for Sun to expand the program into because of its strong technology sector and the fact that behind the U.S., it is the largest venture capital market in the world. Plus it has more scientists and start-ups per capita than any other country."
Looks like Sun's move is their seal of approval as to the state of Israeli ingenuity. It seems like it is alive and well.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position in any stock mentioned as of 12/8/07.
The markets have two additional oil industry data points to digest Friday, and through the weekend:
First the good news: OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has increased oil production in response to sustained +$90 per barrel prices.
OPEC's 10 members bound by output targets, all except Iraq and Angola, pumped 26.98 million barrels per day, up 180,000 barrels per day from September 2007, according to the survey of oil firms, traders, OPEC officials and analysts, Reuters reported Friday.
Among oil companies Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN) represents a riskier play because SUN meets its crude oil requirement via purchases from third parties, as opposed to company owned operations.
A major strength is Sunoco's strong presence in the U.S.'s East Coast and Midwest markets, which provides considerable earnings stability. However, analysts' 2007-2008 projections for Sunoco's gasoline and petrochemical production are not outstanding. Further, look for refinery maintenance and repairs to hurt refinery production somewhat in 2007, but full refinery production should return in 2008. Sunoco has also been hindered by an emphasis on light sweet crude, which has restricted its ability to take advantage of larger refining margins for sour crude.
The big question is, why is Sunoco worth an investor's attention? Answer: Analysts could be a tad low regarding revenue growth for 2008, particularly given crude oil's persistently high price. Oil, which closed Friday around $89 per barrel, is likely to remain above $70 per barrel for the foreseeable future, and if $100 per barrel is in oil's near future, those 2008 revenue estimates for SUN will prove to be conservative. Further, SUN, which closed Friday at $71.10, has a PE ratio of about 8 -- which makes it a very cheap stock.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Valero Energy, UBS AG, Lehman Brothers and Supertex were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded both Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) and Valero (NYSE: VLO) to Buy from Hold, as they believe both companies will benefit from the collapse of ethanol prices since refiners are mainly supplied under term contracts struck above current levels.
Merrill upgraded shares of UBS (NYSE: UBS) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's lack of exposure to fixed income.
Credit Suisse upgraded shares of Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to Outperform from Neutral citing improved performance prospects.
Supertex (NASDAQ: SUPX) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Oppenheimer. The firm expects a rebound in all business segments, Medical is entering a seasonally strong September quarter, and notes Motorola (NYSE: MOT) shipments are growing.
OTHER UPGRADES:
CIBC upgraded Novatel Wireless (NASDAQ: NVTL) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer.
Sun Microsystems, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) wants to make yet another strategic change in its core business, according to CEO Jonathan Schwartz. Schwartz said yesterday that the open-source and server company plans to increase its focus on storage products and services using an internal reorganization to do so.
For this, Schwartz wants to merge the server and storage business units into a single unit focusing on storage and server convergence. In effect, Sun wants to sell and service more storage systems to make up for the lack of margin in its server business. At least, that's how many are reading this move. Since acquiring StorageTek years ago, this move was anticipated. It's now here.
In addition to making StorageTek's product lineup more profitable to the company, Schwartz also may be making the move to fall in line with "virtual server" trends in the information technology field. In a sense, customers don't care about buying servers or storage, but are interested in possibly "renting" a virtual server and storage system that acts as a single unit. This is precisely what Sun will try to push to customers as it slowly dumps aging mainframes.
According to Schwartz, Sun "wants to be in a position to innovate on its [customers'] behalf, at the system level, beyond the boxes -- across blades [servers], racks, disk and tape." Let's see if this recent internal reorg and change in customer philosophy will have a positive revenue effect for Sun -- something it desperately needs.
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