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What the U.S. can learn from Japan's lost decade

The New York Times reports that Japan's decade-long economic slump following the bursting of its 1980s economic bubble offers important lessons for the U.S. Of these, the most important one seems to be that banks and others exposed to bad loans should write them off fast and move on. It was Japan's unwillingness to bite the bullet that kept it stuck for a decade.

Last month, I compared Japan's negative interest rates to the ones we have now. But what caused the predicament that led Japan to cut its rates so much? In Japan, housing prices in the major metropolitan regions nearly tripled from 1985 to 1991, then proceeded to lose two-thirds of their value over the next 14 years. In the U.S., the price run up was less extreme: house prices rose 82% from November 2001 to their peak in June 2006. Since the peak, house prices have fallen 10% with 10% to 15% further to go.

Japan was slow to write-down its bad loans. That's because its industrial groups, or keiretsu, had tight links with banks, so when a bank got in trouble it was often quietly bailed out temporarily with loans or investments from other members of the corporate group. In the U.S., banks are quicker to take write-downs and so far we've used Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) to recapitalize the banks.

The lesson we should learn from Japan is that the sooner we face reality, the sooner we can solve our problems and move on to the next period of growth. A larger question is whether we can grow without creating another bubble.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Selling America to Arabia one bank at a time

You know that an economic issue has jumped the shark when the New York Times's op-editoraliste Maureen Dowd (MoDo) devotes her Sunday column to it. What's unleashed MoDo's moxie is how Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) -- those government investment funds estimated to control between $2 trillion and $15 trillion -- are buying up chunks of the U.S. banking system.

The problem against which MoDo rails is that thanks to the policies of George W. Bush, the price of oil has quadrupled and the dollar has plummeted -- thus putting the U.S. at the mercy of those Arabian SWFs whose owners he groveled to this week to lower the price of oil. And while W. was grovelling, so were the CEOs of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) -- seeking capital to shore up their Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO)-tarnished balance sheets. MoDo is right that with Bush's $2.4 trillion worth of wars and $1.3 trillion worth of tax cuts, the U.S. has gone from being the world's creditor to its debtor.

But another New York Times article sheds more light on the phenomenon of foreign investment in the U.S. -- suggesting that with their $414 billion worth of 2007 purchases in the U.S., foreign investors, including SWFs, spent a record amount of money buying up the U.S. last year -- up 90% from 2006. The Times suggests that this foreign investment comes in different forms -- some of which are beneficial. How so?

Continue reading Selling America to Arabia one bank at a time

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 10:13 PM

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