Continue reading BJ's Wholesale Reports Fourth-Quarter Earnings

BJ's Wholesale Reports Fourth-Quarter Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Mar 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Tween retailers provide a glimmer of hope for the retail sector

Tween retailers provide a glimmer of hope for the retail sector originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Lowe's issues a cautious earnings outlook

Lowe's issues a cautious earnings outlook originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 22 Sep 2009 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Same-store sales plummet at Abercrombie & Fitch

Same-store sales plummet at Abercrombie & Fitch originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Sep 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Big Lots sees same-store sales slip slightly

Big Lots sees same-store sales slip slightly originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Aug 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Gap's first-quarter earnings top expectations

Gap's first-quarter earnings top expectations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 22 May 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Wal-Mart up, Target down in January same-store sales

Wal-Mart up, Target down in January same-store sales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Feb 2009 14:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), the hip clothing store that competes with The Gap, Inc. (NYSE: GPS) and J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP), is no different than any other retailer. Christmas is going to hurt... hurt bad. Make no mistake. And as far as earnings reports goes, the pattern is in: report a decline, then issue some nasty guidance.

Abercrombie reported Q3 numbers today, and according to the press release, net sales decreased 8%, and earnings per diluted share declined 44% to $0.72. As Melly Alazraki reported this morning, that $0.72 beat analyst estimates. But the market could care less. As Melly pointed out, the full-year outlook was cut. The stock sold off upon the news. In fact, as I write this, the stock is down nearly 15%. By the way, if by the time this is published the market is up and Abercrombie's shares are trading in the green (big if, granted), don't even think it's a buy. Put that out of your mind. Did you see the same-store sales? They were down 14% for the quarter. That figure is grabbing the attention of investors, I'm sure. When you see a downturn like that, well, you know things aren't going to turn around quickly.

Abercrombie's woes will be with it for a while. Management will find it difficult to strike the right balance between staffing the stores properly and increasing marketing activities. All retailers will be in the same boat. The stock hit a new 52-week low today of $18.83. My guess is that the stock will be as volatile as the market, and that it will trend in a downward direction over the next couple months. Obviously I don't think it's a buy. Broken stock and broken fundamentals aren't a great combo. Abercrombie continues to plan for new store openings in fiscal 2008; perhaps those investments will pay off down the line. For now, the retail sector is doing horribly, competition in the sector is becoming cutthroat as consumer confidence loses value, and I continue to look at only two names -- Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) -- as possible long-term values. Yep, Abercrombie & Fitch isn't so sexy anymore.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Abercrombie & Fitch's Q3 not so cool originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Kohl's Corp (NYSE: KSS) reported Q3 earnings on Thursday after the bell. I didn't like what I saw. I couldn't find anything in there that would make me think the stock is a buy at this time. Well, there were a couple good points, but they didn't sway me.

Net revenues were pretty much flat at $3.8 billion. The bottom line came in at $0.52 per diluted share. Last year at this time, Kohl's delivered $0.61 per diluted share in net income. That's a 15% drop, and that isn't good, even if earnings beat expectations by a penny.

So, we got a flat top line and a declining bottom line. Want some more bad news? This is probably the worst metric: same-store sales decreased well over 6% for the quarter. Plus, they declined 6% for the nine-month period. As can be seen, things are getting worse for Kohl's. Same-store sales are indeed a key measure of a retailer's strength, so even though management did well in terms of gross margin and operational cash flow (the latter took a big jump, moving up 175% due to changes in working capital relating to inventories), I can't find it within me to be even remotely bullish on this business.

Continue reading Don't buy Kohl's (KSS)

Don't buy Kohl's (KSS) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS - option chain) shares are rising today after the company posted a 5.5% drop in same-store sales in September, beating analysts' estimates of a 6.1% drop. The markets were braced for bad news, so even though sales fell a significant amount and the KSS lowered its guidance, the stock is still getting a lift.

If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on KSS.

KSS opened this morning at $36.95. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.74 and a high of $40.08. As of 10:15, KSS is trading at $39.37, up $1.21 (3.2%). The chart for KSS looks neutral and S&P gives KSS a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $35 range.

Continue reading Kohl's (KSS) September sales beat estimates

Kohl's (KSS) September sales beat estimates originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Oct 2008 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

McDonald's (MCD) rises on May same store sales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 13:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Wal-Mart, other retailers report better-than-expected same-store sales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Mar 2008 09:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Sears (SHLD) plunges on pessimistic earnings outlook

Sears (SHLD) plunges on pessimistic earnings outlook originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Jan 2008 12:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Wal-Mart sales rise a surprising 2.4% in December originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Jan 2008 11:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading November retail numbers raised by early Thanksgiving

November retail numbers raised by early Thanksgiving originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Dec 2007 12:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It's super Thursday, when same-store sales from many of the nation's retailers hit the Street, and the outlook for the holiday-shopping season is looking less than cheerful.

Weakness in the housing sector, high prices at the pumps, and unseasonably warm weather kept consumers' wallets on a tight leash in October. Early estimates from the International Council of Shopping Centers/UBS indicate that overall U.S. same-store sales in October rose about 2%, missing analysts' previous growth target of 2.5%. Data from Thomson Financial indicates that 18 retailers have missed expectations, while 10 have exceeded.

Ken Perkins, president of research company RetailMetrics, told The New York Times that "Overall, the sales trend continues to slow . . . I think the consumer is certainly feeling the [economic] pressure heading into the holidays."

Continue reading October same-store sales a bad sign for the holidays

October same-store sales a bad sign for the holidays originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Nov 2007 11:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

McDonald's sales spike 6.9% in October originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Nov 2007 09:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) announced that global same-store sales rose 8.1% in August. With 36,000 stores worldwide and annual sales of well over $21 billion, the growth rate is extraordinary. The company's shares are up 2% in premarket trading and the stock could easily break its 52-week high of $53.22.

A food retailer this large growing this fast is likely to be eating someone else's lunch. Shares in Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) and Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) have lagged McDonald's so Wall Street may suspect that their same-store sales will not be as robust.

McDonald's has been clever, and it seems odd that other food and coffee retailers have not matched some of its moves. Many of its stores are open 24-hours. Almost all in the U.S. open at 5 a.m. to catch the early breakfast crowd. The majority of Starbucks open at 6 a.m.

Investors know that there is only so much air in any room. If McDonald's can keep increasing its sales at a rate faster than the competition, it is likely taking share and cutting into revenues at other companies.

There is no way for the likes of Starbucks to shake this perception without showing that its same-store sales can move up close to 10%.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

McDonald's (MCD) same-store sales on steroids originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Sep 2007 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Eight days ago, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) began selling the new CD from former Beatle Paul McCartney titled Memory Almost Full. Currently, the CD is only available from Starbucks stores in all 27 countries and on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). The CD may be the spark that Starbucks needs to get its stock going, as it is selling extraordinarily well and may lift Starbucks' June same-store sales.

Starbucks is a long-term, excellent growth story. The company currently operates almost 12,000 stores, with a stated corporate goal of growing to over 40,000 units in the next decade. This year so far has been a frustrating one for Starbucks as its stock has traded as high as $36, but is sitting at its low point right now at $27.74.

Update June 13, 2007, 4:36 p.m.: "First-week sales of 160,541 copies marked a 33% improvement over those for Flaming Pie."

The first quarter earnings for Starbucks came in right at consensus expectations: no upside surprise. The market reacted with a rather large yawn and the stock has been trading sideways since. The Paul McCartney CD may be the catalyst necessary to get the stock and the same store sales popping in sync.

Continue reading Paul McCartney should lift Starbucks' same-store sales

Paul McCartney should lift Starbucks' same-store sales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 Jun 2007 06:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week on BloggingStocks, I proposed that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) "take a one-year break from building more stores, and focus on getting the current stores back on track. One lost year of expansion is not much in the long-run and, if it can help to bolster existing stores, it's a wise investment indeed."

While that was certainly a far-fetched idea, Wal-Mart is planning to cut back on the opening of new supercenters this year by 25, and refocus its energy on improving existing locations. The company will build 190-200 new supercenters this year and, in future years, plans to drop that number to around 170.

The company will be using the savings from reduced capital expenditures to ramp up its buyback program, and management's attention will shift toward improving efficiency and same-store sales, which have been thoroughly unspectacular of late.

Shareholders loved the idea, sending the shares up nearly 4% on the news. I think it makes a lot of sense as well. By focusing on improving existing stores for now, future stores will be stronger. Congratulations to Wal-Mart management for resisting the urge to grow as rapidly as possible, which so many other companies have succumbed to. By slowing up a bit, shareholders will reap vastly greater rewards in the long run.

Wal-Mart puts the brakes on supercenter growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.