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Housing Truth from Main Street

There is no housing bubble. That is a stupid term promoted by journalists and analysts fighting the last war like an old general. The stock market "bubble" burst sending the NASDAQ plummeting from 5000 to 1200. Anybody foresee housing for sale at an 80% discount let me know and I might be able to help you with that problem. It's not going to happen!

If and when certain markets collapse 20% to 30%, it should not be deemed a bubble. It will happen in some markets and has happened in over-built condo markets. But these units will be absorbed in the next few years. The greatest pain will be felt by the biggest speculators and the most overzealous people participating in unorthodox loan programs.

How many stocks move up and down that much in a year? Plenty! Think Google, or Merck, or Black and Decker. Even I, who have been trying to add some sanity to GOOG's valuation through numerous posts, never said GOOG was a bubble stock.

There is a need for more housing, period! As a current investor in four different housing projects -- three in Southern California and one in Phoenix --I can testify that all will sell at considerable profits. We have seen no let-up in demand. Each one is different: One is an infill project of 150 single family homes. Another is a new development of 200 homes in a growing community, a third is a mixed use project of 60 condominiums over retail stores and the fourth is a unique town home project surrounding a parking structure that is commercial adjacent.

The only problem we see is getting entitlements and building permits. This process has become excruciatingly painful in many parts of the country and just about everywhere in California. My home town of Santa Monica being one of the worst offenders, used to be referred to as "The People's Republic of Santa Monica." That was too long a nickname so some just started calling it "Soviet Monica." I love this community but there are times I think we are all over-indulgent meddlers.

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 03:50 PM

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