"Even in tough economic times, Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) should fair well thanks to its offering of non-cyclical goods," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

"Sara Lee is a leading producer of branded foods, beverages, and personal care products. Roughly 50% of sales are generated outside of the U.S. Leading brands include Ball Park, Hillshire Farm, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, State Fair, Earth Grains, and Senseo brand coffee products.

"Management launched a comprehensive restructuring plan in 2005 to focus on core products and maximize operating efficiencies. These actions yielded $218 million in annualized cost savings in fiscal 2008.

"Food commodity costs soared earlier this year. However, SLE has been able to pass costs to customers through price increases. Furthermore, it has benefited from growing volumes. Fiscal Q4 net sales grew 12.2% year-over-year to $3.5 billion.

"With its earnings announcement, management issued fiscal 2009 guidance. It expects net sales to grow 4-6% year-over-year to $13.7-14 billion and pro forma earnings to grow 8-18% to 90-98 cents per share.

"Since issuing guidance, economic conditions have deteriorated significantly. This could lead to increased trading down activity to lower-priced brands or private-label goods.

"Also, the strengthening dollar has turned the foreign exchange tailwind into a headwind. Yet food commodity and energy costs have fallen significantly, which could provide margin relief for the company."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Shares of consumer goods giant Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) have been taking a beating today after the company failed to meet analyst estimates for its fiscal third quarter.

At first glance, it looked like a fantastic quarter for the company, as profit rose by a remarkable 82%, but things start to look less than rosy once we take a closer look. Analysts had been expecting to see the company show earnings during the quarter of 24 cents a share, and were disappointed to see the company come in below this, with only 22 cents a share.

This is the second quarter in a row in which the company posted weaker than expected earnings, and is quickly erasing the progress that the stock has been making since the beginning of March.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Priceline.com, Monster and Internap were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Susquehanna downgraded Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) to Neutral from Positive as they believe upside may be difficult given the macro environment, competition, and currency headwinds.
  
• JP Morgan lowered Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's expectations for higher 1Q08 operating expenses.
  
• Internap (NASDAQ: INAP) was downgraded by Merriman to Neutral from Buy as they believe upside will be limited until the company can complete its integration of the VitalStream CDN acquisition.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan cut Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) was downgraded at WestLB to Add from Buy.
  
• Merrill downgraded Getty Realty (NYSE: GTY) to Sell from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Athenahealth, Marvell Technology, Broadcom and Nvidia were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Athenahealth (NASDAQ: ATHN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Goldman Sachs. Jefferies started shares of the stock with a Buy rating and $46 target, as they believe their estimates could prove conservative given potential upside from new and existing physicians adopting athenaClinicals.
• Kaufman Bros initiated Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) with a Hold rating and $18 target, as they believe near-term growth prospects remain uncertain and recommends waiting for more favorable entry points.
  
• The firm also initiated Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) with a Hold rating and $35 target, and believes the company's growth prospects are priced into shares following the recent rally, and started shares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and $42 target, as they believe the company's growth opportunity and competitive strength remain intact and would be buyers at current levels.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Goldman started shares of Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) with a Neutral rating and $16 target.
  
• UBS initiated US BioEnergy (NASDAQ: USBE) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Bear Stearns inititated CarMax (NYSE: KMX) with an Underperform rating.
  
• Wachovia started Teekay Offshore Partners (NYSE: TOO) and Holly Energy Partners (NYSE: HEP) with Market Perform ratings.

Update: Yesterday's (10-17-07) Wall Street Journal (subscription) article about this investigation began "Prominent American food companies are under scrutiny in a federal probe of possible fraud and corruption in the military's food-supply operations for the Iraq war", and went on to read "The inquiry is focused on whether the food companies set excessively high prices when they sold their goods to the Army's primary food contractor for the war zone." Today's (8-18-07) WSJ article about the investigation reported a very different slant to the story, suggesting that, rather than pursuing American producers, the government was investigating the wholesaler and companies involved in the Kuwait end. Given this change, I find the story I have written below no longer substantiated, and caution readers to wait along with me for more reliable information.

In accordance with our policy of owning up to what we have written, the post will remain.

A number of American food companies including Sara Lee (NYSE:SLE), ConAgra (NYSE: CAG) and Perdue Farms Inc. have come under suspicion of conspiring with Kuwait-based Agility Corp., a logistics supplier for the U.S. troops in Iraq, to inflate food supply costs. In June, Agility received a new, one-year, $2.8 billion contract to provide life support (billeting, motor pool, dining and medical support services) to troops in Iraq. Agility, until recently known as Public Warehousing, has enjoyed a series of support contracts throughout much of the Iraq conflict.

According to Reuters, the Defense and Justice Departments are investigating allegations that Agility may have taken kickbacks from its suppliers, as well as charging the U.S. military unreasonably high prices for provender.

Agility, founded in 1979, was taken public in 1997 and is traded on the Kuwait exchange. It employs over 20,000 people in over 100 countries, with an annual revenue of $4.5 billion. In June, it was also awarded a $43.6 million contract for base operations and maintenance services at U.S. Air Force bases in Spain.

Update: ConAgra has put out a press release claiming that the DOD is looking to them as witnesses, rather than perpetrators.

Branded food companies like Kraft (NYSE: KFT) and Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) are facing competition from a source that has been an after-thought for years: private label products.

According (subscription required) to The Wall Street Journal, "Food retailers are growing more sophisticated about developing and branding their own products. They're even building brands that bear no resemblance to their store names, such as Target's Archer Farms line of gourmet oils, appetizers and frozen foods, and Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) Eating Right line of frozen dinners, cereal and salad dressings."

Of course, grocers make more money selling products they make (or buy cheaply from a third-party manufacturer without the pricing power of a strong brand) and market themselves, rather than ones the buy from a large brand.

With American consumers not feeling quite as rich as they did during the days of the housing bubble and easy credit, private label brands should continue to gain market-share. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has reported that that is already happening, as a result of the cash-strapped consumer.

That could spell trouble for companies like Kraft and Sara Lee, and it could be great for grocery stores -- higher margins. Investors may want to pick their food-related investments accordingly.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Alcoa Inc (AA), Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) Under Armour, Inc (UA), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) and QLogic Corp (QLGC) topped today's list of noteworthy upgrades:

• RBC Capital upgraded Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) to Sector Perform from Underperform following the bid by Alcan Inc (NYSE: AL).

• Marvell Technology Group Ltd (NASDAQ MRVL) was upgraded to buy from Neutral with a $23 target at Oppenheimer based on valuation and the improvements made to HDD PC/Desktop.

• Morgan Stanley raised shares of Under Armor Inc (NYSE: UA) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a $47 target, based on valuation and long-term growth.

• Stifel upgraded shares of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) to Buy from Hold with a $100 target citing valuation.

• Morgan Keegan upgraded shares of QLogic Corp (NASDAQ: QLGC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and expectations for strong sequential growth to resume in 2H07.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Sonic Corp (NASDAQ: SONC) to Outperform from Peer Perform.

• JP Morgan added Sara Lee Corp (NYSE: SLE) to its Focus List.

• CRT upgraded Forest Oil Corp (NYSE: FST) to Buy from Fair Value with a $45 target.

• Wachovia raised Eagle Rock Energy Partners, LP (NASDAQ: EROC) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Gabeili upgraded New York-based Flushing Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: FFIC) to Buy from Hold.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE), founded in 1939, may be mulling a leveraged buyout. The Financial Times has reported the rumor. Moreover, there has been strong volume in Sara Lee's stock options, as well as credit swaps.

Although, the stock price has been tepid today -- up 2% to $16.38.

Option buying is becoming a precursor to a variety of LBO deals, such as the $15 billion transaction for Harrah's Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: HET).

Actually, Sara Lee has been in the midst of a restructuring (announced in February of 2006). Despite several sell-offs of assets, the company's stock price has been lackluster.

Maybe the company can juice things up by going private? And, while private, make the hard choices to improve the performance of the company? Well, some investors are already making that bet in the derivatives market.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

Sara Lee Corporation (NYSE:SLE), manufacturers of Ball Park Franks, Jimmy Dean sausage, and Sara Lee fatty baked snacks, has completed the spin-off of its Hanes division to form a separate company, Hanesbrands, (NYSE:HBI), which began trading yesterday, September 6. Current Sara Lee shareholders received one share of Hanesbrands stock for every eight shares of Sara Lee. The Hanesbrands moniker includes some very common names: Hanes underwear, made famous by Michael Jordan in his series of "you have been briefed" ads; Bali and Wonder bras; as well as L'eggs and Just My Size hoisery.

Several years ago, Sara Lee Coroporation management decided to reduce the range of the portfolio of brands that had grown to cover snack foods, beverages, as well as household and body care products, and a line of intmate and casual clothing. One does have to wonder whoever thought it was a good idea to merge fatty snacks with an underwear company in order 'to achieve transformational synergies' or some such business lunacy. Probably best not to think about the image too long.

Approximately 95 million shares of Hanesbrands stock were distributed to Sara Lee stockholders in the transaction. Sara Lee Corporation received $2.4 billion for the stock from Hanesbrands. In its first day of trading, Hanesbrands stock closed at $22.20, up $1.90, with 3.7 million shares trading hands.