Minyanville Professor David Miller dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Professor Miller,
I just saw news of Merck & Co., Inc.(NYSE: MRK)'s and Schering Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP)'s Vytorin not meeting their goal of heart study. Approximately 40% of Schering Plough's profit comes from this joint venture. Do you think pharmaceutical companies put too many eggs in one basket? Do they have a choice?
Minyan T.
MT,
They do have a choice, but the decision is to focus only on blockbuster drugs – which are a dying breed in this age of increased focus on personalized medicine. But the study is not as big of a disaster as some are saying. The main goal of aortic thickening is not as important to this drug as reductions in atherosclerotic events, which was positive in favor of Vytorin.
Basically, MRK/SGP tried to extend the market for Vytorin by this study in a place few thought it would work. They overextended, which is the bad news. The good news is the study confirmed the drug works to reduce cardiac events related to fat in the arteries, which is what the drug is primarily prescribed for.
Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) stock is trading lower today after the company announced that its cholesterol drug Vytorin failed to outperform the generic form of Zocor in reducing cholesterol in patients with a predisposition to high cholesterol. Analysts are mixed as to whether the outcome of this study will affect Vytorin sales, which was co-developed with Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE: SGP). If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MRK.
After hitting a one-year low of $42.35 in February, the stock hit a one-year high of $61.62 in December. This morning, MRK opened at $59.88. So far today the stock has hit a low of $58.66 and a high of $59.88. As of 10:30, MRK is trading at $59.59, down $0.96 (-1.6%). The chart for MRK looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
CIBC resumed coverage of Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: RIGL) with a Sector Outperformer rating and $16 target. The firm expects near-term upside to be driven by positive phase 2 results of R788 in rheumatoid arthritis, expected in December, and thinks the company's strong scientific platform will support long-term appreciation.
Bear Stearns started Brightpoint Incorporated (NASDAQ: CELL) with an Outperform rating and $20 target, as they are positive on Brightpoint's merger with Dangaard given the significant synergies and diversification it provides.
Speculation intensified that the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates shortly, and moreover, some are suggesting that it already has cut them stealthily, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
The CEO of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) , René Obermann, called for the European mobile phone networks to be consolidated, reported the Independent.
Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is believed to be negotiating the purchase of a European pension plan worth about GBP200M, reported the U.K. Times.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the economy and markets are "resilient," and can absorb any losses from the recent market instability, and has not raised the possibility of policy changes to deal with the markets' problems, reported the New York Times.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola (MOT), SanDisk (SNDK), Time Warner (TWX), Schering-Plough (SGP), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Openwave Systems (OPWV) were some of today's noteworthy upgrades:
Deutsche Bank believes the worst is over for Motorola (NYSE: MOT) and expects an improvement in growth over the next several quarters, upgrading shares to Buy from Hold.
CIBC upgraded shares of SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer following checks that indicate NAND supply is being allocated, visibility is improving, and SanDisk positioning is strengthening.
Pali Capital raised Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) shares to Buy from Neutral as they believe the "valuation has become too attractive to ignore."
CIBC upgraded Openwave Systems (NASDAQ: OPWV) to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer believing the Street's expectations are now in line with expectations, limiting downside potential at these levels...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Merrill upgraded BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Buy from Sell.
JP Morgan assumed coverage of Arkansas Best (NASDAQ: ABFS) with a Neutral rating, up from an Underweight rating.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Baidu.com Inc ADS (BIDU), XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc (XMSR) and Vonage Holdings Corp (VG) were today's most notable downgrades:
UBS downgraded shares of Baidu.com Inc ADS (NASDAQ: BIDU) to Reduce from Neutral with a $99 target following first quarter guidance calling for flat Q/Q revenue growth in the first quarter. The broker attributes the forth quarter upside to lower expenses and the booking of tax income.Citigroup downgraded Baidu.com to Sell from Neural with a $105 target while Brean Murray downgraded to company to Hold from Buy.
XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: XMSR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy with a $15 target at Stanford based on the shift in retail share and a remote chance of a merger with Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI).
Buckingham downgraded Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSE: VG) to Underperform from Neutral following the disappointing fourth quarter results.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Schering-Plough Corp (NYSE: SGP) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Prudential, citing valuation.
Matrix USA downgraded Plantronics Int (NYSE: PLT) to Strong Sell from Sell based on the softening demand for entertainment headsets.
DA Davidson downgraded Alcan Inc (NYSE: AL) to Buy from Hold.
Citigroup downgraded CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX) to Hold from Buy with a $42 target and removed the company from its Recommended List on valuation.
Deutsche Bank downgraded Radio One Inc (NASDAQ: ROIAK) to Hold from Buy telling clients that Q1 revenue trends could be weaker than expected.