On a day when the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 400 points, you may be asking yourself, 'What can I do to make myself feel better about this?'
Here's how the logic goes, and I agree with it (even though, of course, it is good marketing for Schwab to promulgate such ideas).
The discount broker has found in surveys that most people (63%) say they sleep better at night when they are saving for retirement, yet many people save very little for retirement each year. They also found that people save for vacation or household items before they max out their retirement plans. And most people are positively drowning in credit card debt, probably because they made those purchases and took those vacations before they'd actually saved the money (that's my sophisticated analysis there, not survey results).
It turns out that Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) and TDAmeritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) may have sold auction-rate securities by using misleading marketing about whether or not the instruments were "cash equivalents." According to The New York Times, the "point of sale" activity at the discount and retail brokerages is similar, they said, and some of the discount brokerage firms use financial advisers or may have improperly listed information on their websites.
Schwab argues that it was only an "agent" and did not slant the marketing of auction-rates one way or the other.
It is safe to predict that Andrew Cuomo, the New York State Attorney General, will get discount brokerage firms to buy the auction-rate paper back from their customers. Cuomo can probably find some marketing material where the nature of the securities was represented the wrong way.
But, Cuomo's actions have stepped over the line. In all probability, many discount brokerage customers bought the auction-rates on their PC without seeing any information about whether their liquidity could be undermined. Discount brokerage customer often do their own research.
Cuomo won't care. He won't try to find out which people got their auction-rates without being attracted to them by marketing. He will get the discount firms to buy all of the paper back. The companies do not want years of litigation.
Cuomo is running for governor, or perhaps the U.S. Senate. He does not have time to pause for such details.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
When E*Trade Financial Corp. (Nasdaq: ETFC) had its meltdown, I considered buying but I was too chicken. I mean, can you really blame me? When it got caught up in the financial crisis, the term "falling knife" never felt so accurate. A 52-week range between $2.08 and $25.79 is a pretty scary thing; to see what I mean in graphic format, feast your eyes on the chart.
Lately, though, I've been warming up to the idea ever so slightly of taking a shot on E*Trade. I can't say I possess strong conviction yet, but I'm not necessarily afraid of owning financial stocks. In fact, as an example, I own Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT), an idea that Sheldon Liber talked about recently, one that has a pretty frightening yield. E*Trade is a significant name in the online-brokerage industry, and its brand is valuable. When I saw the company falling off a cliff last year, my instinct to buy started to kick in, insisting that it isn't going to go the way of the dodo. Plus, takeover theories began, further fueling my fascination. In the end, I took no action.
Now, though, the stock has bounced nicely off its lows. And it reported January data yesterday that had a couple of good data points. Daily average revenue trades are up 18.8% for the month-to-month timeframe, and they increased 21.5% year-over-year. End-of-period retail accounts were flat month-to-month, and were up 6.2% year-over-year. Total retail client assets did decrease, however -- year-over-year, they declined over 12%. And, hey, for whatever this is worth, its Super Bowl "Talking Baby" ads apparently were a hit.
At any rate, I'm a bit more sanguine on E*Trade's stock potential. I may not buy just yet, but the closer it gets to $6 or $7 a stub, the better the chance it has, in my mind, of going to double digits again. Sure, Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) and TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) are the safer broker bets, but I can't help looking at E*Trade.
A look at the Nasdaq short interest on December 14, compared to November 30, shows that bets against discount brokers rose sharply. Short interest in E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC): moved up 3.9 million shares to 53.7 million, according to data from the exchange. That might have been expected, given the financial company's problems with mortgage related securities.
But, shares short in TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) jumped 8.2 million shares to 17.8 million, and short interest in Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) moved up by 6.1 million shares to 28.7 million. Both figures are a fairly large percentage increase.
The simple explanation for the rise may be that both stocks have done better than financial shares as a whole and are ready for a pull-back. Schwab's stock is up over 30% this year. Ameritrade is up just under 25%.
But there are two other possible explanations, both a bit more unsettling. One is that a bear market would likely hurt earnings at discount brokers. A recession early next year could cause individual investors to pull in their horns. The other theory is that the two firms could have balance sheet problems of their own. This is less likely, since neither company has made any disclosures to that effect.
Whatever the reason, a fairly large amount of money is being gambled that the discount brokerage stocks have peaked.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
I've been writing about finance for longer than I care to admit (okay, 15 years, which feels like a long time, even if Floyd Norris might scoff). But one of the most surprising news flashes of my career has to be when I read in mid-November this year that E*Trade was tanking on concerns the company could go bankrupt.
E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC)? Bankrupt? I've seen discount brokerages come and go, but E*Trade has long been one of the survivors. It was up there, knocking on king Schwab's (SCHW) door, leaving competitor TD Ameritrade (AMTD) snapping at it heels. Or so I thought.
But it turns out that was the way things were before the mortgage market went bust. And before CEO Mitch Caplan decided to place a big bet on residential mortgages. Caplan, formerly head of a bank that E*Trade acquired, became CEO in 2002.
CNBC is reporting that Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) and TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) may be in talks to buy troubled discount broker E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC). The news has pushed up E*Trade shares as much as 23% to $5.25.
The problem is that if the broker's mortgage securities investments are as severe a problem as some analysts think, the company may not be worth more than the $3.46 where the stock traded a few days ago. Those buying into the rally could be burned if an offer is well below the current price.
Any deal would probably be based on selling the customers of the discount brokerage unit and keeping the damaged securities on the balance sheet within the remaining public company. There is no guarantee that the cash paid for the customer base would not be eaten up if the market for these distressed securities drops further.
E*Trade may be worth over $5, but it could also be worth a lot less.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
After reviewing funds from Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Fidelity, companies that have been mentioned in some of the SIV bailout stories, I looked to see if other bond mutual funds also had significant exposure to the credit markets tied to this mortgage and asset-backed securities mess. While I can't guarantee that I located all the ones with significant exposure to this mess, here are some key players:
Eaton Vance Low Duration A has the riskiest position by far of all the ones I look at this morning. As of 04/30/07, this fund held 79.93% of its assets in mortgage pass-through securities. More than 75% of its holdings are in bonds rated BB and B. Its yield of 5.5% certainly doesn't justify this risk. If you are holding this fund, you could find a safer bet with similar yields.
As of 9/30/2007, Credit Suisse Short Duration A held 15.43% of its assets in mortgage pass-through securities, 13.86% in collateralized mortgage obligations, and 12.82% in asset-back securities. That's slightly more than 40% of its portfolio in the type of credit markets now showing signs of trouble.
ETFC lowered its EPS guidance, increased its provision for loan losses. ETFC will take additional security impairments and exit and restructure some non-core business.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE-GS) lowered its 12-month price target to $16 and removed ETFC from its Americas Buy list. Smith Barney says: "If its bank regulators took a more holistic view of ETFC's regulatory capital, it could result in a forced deleveraging."
The Wall Street Journal reported on 8/22 that TD AmeriTrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) is in merger talks with ETFC. Jana Partners & SAC Capital Advisors LLC in late May encouraged ETFC and AmeriTrade or Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) to consider a combination.
ETFC overall option implied volatility of 60 was above its 26-week average of 44, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Barron Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column reported that Charles R. Schwab sold 800K shares of Charles Schwab Corporation (NASDAQ: SCHW) for nearly $16M this past Friday.
The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that the human rights organization Human Rights Watch has released a report alleging that Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) spied on unions and violated other federal labor laws.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Carl Icahn took out a full page ad to get the attention of Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) shareholders who will vote on board members at Monday's company annual meeting.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) Pictures Entertainment has formed a new division for the production of international films.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The pharmacy benefit managers sector, financials E*Trade Financial Corp (ETFC) and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) and transports J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) and Knight Transportation (KNX) were today's most noteworthy initiations:
CIBC is positive on the pharmacy benefit managers group given increasing generic utilization, continued growth in specialty pharmacy, improving mail-order penetration and share repurchases. CIBC initiated Express Scripts, Inc (NASDAQ: ESRX) with a Sector Outperformer and $104 target as the firm expects continued strong performance as the company benefits from positive secular industry trends, and initiated Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) with a Sector Performer and $82 target on valuation.
As Tom Taulli wrote earlier today, the number of accounts being infiltrated by computer hackers in Eastern Europe and Asia continues to rise, and your accounts at an online brokerage firm may be at risk. While E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, Schwab and Fidelity have promised to reimburse customers who lose money in their accounts due to fraud, the problem continues to grow. Who knows what the thieves will do with the information once they've gotten it by infiltrating your account?
E*Trade reported on a conference call last week that it spent $18 million in the third quarter to compensate customers affected by trading fraud, according to a report from Bloomberg. TD Ameritrade also admitted to losses, but gave no numbers. We may get more details when it reports its numbers, expected later today. Charles Schwab told Bloomberg that it didn't see "anything unusual enough to warrant a financial disclosure." Well, if I were a Schwab customer and my account were infiltrated, I certainly would consider it important enough for disclosure. I hope Schwab is being more candid with its customers. Fidelity did not comment on Bloomberg's story.
Bloomberg also reported that the FBI, the SEC and the NASD are trying to unravel exactly what is happening and how its being done. There are actually two types of fraud they are seeing. One is a classic "pump and dump," where hackers are opening an account in someone else's name and using it for illegal trading to pump up a stock. The person whose name was used for the account looks like the one responsible for the crime. Was the information used to open the account initially obtained by infiltrating an account at another online broker? No one knows for sure yet how it's done. The second type of fraud is straight theft, where hackers use personal information such as social security numbers to break into accounts. Once they have control, they sell securities and then wire the proceeds outside the U.S.
Javelin Strategy and Research of Pleasanton, California, estimates that identify theft will cost Americans $56.6 billion this year, according to Bloomberg. That doesn't even begin to account for the time it takes to clean up the mess after you've been a victim of identity theft. It can take years and hundreds of hours to get your financial history back on track. Good information about how to prevent identity theft and what to do if you are a victim is available from the U.S. Department of Justice.
Last week I pondered what the launch of Zecco, a free online stock trading service, could translate to as far as what it could do to online brokerage firms' profit margins on online trading. I gave a couple of different paths and possible longer-term implications, but this morning one of the paths has already been set.
Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) is going to offer free online stock trading for self-directed investors with account balances of over $25,000.00. Zecco's minimum balance is $2,500.00 for free online trading, only a tenth of the requirement for free trading at Bank of America. While there is a discrepancy between these two offerings, it is almost certain we will be seeing more freebie or discounted offerings from other online trading operations elsewhere.
That can't be good for profit margins at E*Trade Financial Corp (NYSE: ET), TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (NASDAQ: AMTD), Schwab Corp (NASDAQ: SCHW) and others. To point, online brokers are lower this morning in pre-market trading: ET is down 4.5% at $23.36, AMTD is down 5.5% at $18.04, and SCHW is down 4.2% at $17.30. I haven't seen any trades or indications on TradeStation Group Inc (NASDAQ: TRAD), although they are also an online trading firm specializing in direct trading access for stocks, options, futures and forex.
The big three in online trading -- ET, AMTD, SCHW -- can't be too thrilled about this as they had finally found some price stability after commission wars left only them standing as the leaders.
Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers
On a day when the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 400 points, you may be asking yourself, 'What can I do to make myself feel better about this?' 
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
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I've been writing about finance for longer than I care to admit (okay, 15 years, which feels like a long time, even if Floyd Norris might scoff). But one of the most surprising news flashes of my career has to be when I read in mid-November this year that E*Trade was tanking on 
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