Patrick Byrne, the petulant chairman and CEO of the king of corporate crybabies, Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK), issued yet another rambling press release on Friday, lamenting the fact that the company had reappeared on the Regulation SHO Threshold List after its stock price tanked following quarterly earnings that disappointed investors. Byrne said that ". . . the price of it fell 40% when we announced earnings that largely beat the Wall Street consensus expectations."

Regardless of how impressed Mr. Byrne was with yet another quarterly loss from his company, Stifel Nicolaus analyst Scott Devitt wasn't buying it. He downgraded the stock from hold to sell, pointing out that the company's revenue growth benefited from "fairly easy comps," adding that Overstock "may never achieve operating margins above 2%-3% at scale."

But never mind analyst predictions. Let's look at Patrick Byrne's predictions. In a 2001 interview with The Wall Street Transcript, Byrne said that by 2004 he "would want to see us well over $400 million and as profitable as hell. Making a ton of money. I want to see that next year."

That was seven years ago, and Overstock still has not reported anything resembling a profitable year, although Byrne is predicting that 2008 will be profitable in spite of a year-to-date loss of $10.4 million. Apparently Mr. Byrne is upset that no one is taking his forward-looking statements seriously anymore, but the fact is that, historically, Mr. Byrne's projections of profitability have been horrifically optimistic, and investors who believed him got their stuff handed to them.

If Mr. Byrne stopped wasting time lashing out at critics and devoted a few hours a day to backing up his big talk, the critics would go away and the stock would thrive.

Overstock back on naked shorting list: Byrne whines originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 28 Jul 2008 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is getting a second wind.

Shares of the number one etailer have risen about 12% over the past three months, outperforming rivals including eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) Borders Group Inc. (NYSE:BGP) and Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:BKS). Heck, Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) barely moved during that same period.

Does this mean that investors are suddenly true believers? I don't think so. There is some enthusiasm for Amazon's digital business like the Amazon Unbox video download service. Plus, Amazon had gotten beaten down so badly for so long that investors finally said that enough was enough. Whether their optimism was justified will be apparent February 1 when the company issues quarterly earnings.

The fourth quarter is critical for Amazon and other retailers, since it includes the holiday season, but Wall Street isn't expecting much. Analysts expect the Seattle-based company to earn 21 cents, compared with 47 cents a year earlier, according to Thomson Financial. Revenue is also expected to fall to $3.77 billion, versus $2.78 billion a year earlier.

But most Wall Street analysts don't seem to be beating the drum for Amazon. In fact, they are pretty divided. Seven rate the stock a buy or strong buy, 10 a hold, and 10 a sell. Their media target is $34, below where it currently trades. The worries about Amazon's growth prospects, spending and thin profit margins seem to be as strong as ever.

Continue reading Amazon gets a second wind

Amazon gets a second wind originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Jan 2007 11:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.