My view of the world is partly framed by my computer screen, so I found it nearly impossible to ignore the clamor this fall about new Web browsers. At the end of August Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) released a beta version of Internet Explorer 8, which was followed a couple days later by an online comic book that announced Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) launch of Chrome, for Windows only.
And who could ignore the buzz in October about Microsoft's SearchPerks, an incentive program with prizes for those willing to sift the Web via its search engine Live Search? Or the fact that yesterday Google announced a new way for users of its search engine to customize their results, ranking and annotating them?
I wondered why these big public companies considered browsers so important, why they had spent the money to update them and give them away for free over Labor Day weekend--and even to reward me to search online. So I rolled up my sleeves, downloaded, read some and talked to a stock analyst.
I was not the only one to notice some similarities in the two new browsers: Both offer private browsing (Web surfing without leaving any history) and crash recovery (so that only the specific tab involved in opening a faulty Web site fails not the whole browser application).
Yet each browser has innovations. As reporters and reviewers have noted about Internet Explorer 8, for example, Accelerators allow you to highlight a term to use it as a launch pad for such applications as mapping, translating and e-mailing. The Web Slices feature lets you plant a snippet of a favorite site atop your browser; you'll be alerted as it's updated.
Chrome sports what Google calls a "streamlined" look. The browser is designed as a giant box, with its features tucked neatly inside for you to pull out. Chrome can also showcase within your browser screen nine small views of your most-traveled Web sites. BusinessWeek points out that it's the "wizardry" under the hood that really matters and that enables this browser's applications to run fast.
These browser makeovers come, says Scott Kessler, senior director of information technology at Standard & Poor's Equity Research, as browsers and search engines have increasingly become linked. "Companies are ... appreciating the increasing relevance of the browser and search in terms of how they communicate with the world, users, customers," he says. "A lot of applications that formerly ran on computers or desktops now operate within the confines of the browser itself."
One of Yahoo!'s (NASDAQ: YHOO) big shareholders wants the company to sell itself to Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) ASAP for $22. And, it has a plan to make the deal work.
Mithras Capital does not own a big piece of Yahoo!, but it wants to help the portal firm to get a price well above where it trades today. According toReuters, "Microsoft would unload Yahoo's Asian assets and non-search businesses, extract $3 billion worth of cost savings and receive $2.8 billion of tax benefits, meaning the software giant would pay $10.3 billion for Yahoo's search business."
If wishes were horses all the beggars would ride. Microsoft understands that Yahoo! is in distress as its share of the search market keeps dropping and display advertising revenue growth slows sharply due to a rough economy. Yahoo!'s stock is at $12.65 and has been dropping rapidly.
If Yahoo! reports a weak third quarter and revises its guidance for the fourth quarter and 2009 down, its shares could quickly move well under $10. Microsoft knows that. If it still wants to buy Yahoo! it may only have to wait a few weeks to get a much better deal.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The U.S. government is looking into whether the partnership that would allow Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to sell search ads on Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) is anticompetitive. The two companies have over 75% of the search market in the U.S. European Union regulators have also started an investigation.
Now the real piling on has begun. According toThe Wall Street Journal, The World Association of Newspapers is opposing the deal because "the agreement would reduce the cost of paid search ads and lower revenues for newspapers' and others' Web sites." That adds a bit of confusion. Marketers oppose the deal because a monopoly would raise rates and cost them more money.
The future of the agreement is now being challenged from a number of sides for a number of reasons. If the pressure becomes great enough, Google may simply walk away. Selling advertising for Yahoo! may be a good business, but it is not likely to balloon the search giant's earnings.
Yahoo! is another matter. It needs improved revenue from search ads to make the case that it should stay independent and that is can drive earnings up on its own.
Without Google, Yahoo! has a very modest future. At $18.85, Yahoo! trades near a 52-week low. Without Google, the shares could go much lower.
Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) yesterday posted its lowest price in nearly five years. The stock moved to $17.75, down from a 52-week high of $34.08.
The Wall Street Journal pushed the idea that this was an options play. "Trading in Yahoo options leapt to four times the normal level as investors picked up 168,000 calls that allow them to buy the company's stock." In other words, some traders are willing to gamble that the shares will go up.
But, they won't go up. There is growing evidence that marketers prefer search internet ads to display advertising. Yahoo! sells a great deal of display inventory and is a distant second to Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) in search. Some of that may change as Yahoo! begins to use the Google system to create its search results.That may not offset the fact that Yahoo! probably has as much display advertising availability as any company in the world.
Because Yahoo! has shown it is unwilling to make major cost cuts, a flattening of its revenue growth would be a disaster for its investors. The firm's year-over-year sales improvement is already barely above 10%. What had been a growth stock three or four years ago has now become a buyout gamble. Investors still hang on to some hope that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) or a large media company will make an offer for the portal company.
That means that Yahoo! still carries a "takeover" premium, which begs the question of where the shares might trade at the end of the year, if there are no offers. Investors are gambling that there is a 30% chance that Yahoo! will be bought, if it is not, the stock heads toward $13.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
A joint announcement by Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Google Inc. (NYSE: GOOG) scheduled for 1:30 p.m. PDT today, after market close, has rumor-mongers wondering whether the two will be announcing a big deal. Yahoo! has been on the block for so long that even the slightest breeze of news has everyone guessing; this morning, Doug McIntyre wrote that short interest was increasing as pessimists pooh-poohed Carl Icahn's plans.
Michael Arrington at TechCrunch says his sources are insisting it's only a search partnership, a deal that would probably have far less impact on the fate of Yahoo! -- it may signal more things to come, but let's recall that a "global advertising partnership" deal between Google and Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX)'s AOL in December 2005, in which Google purchased 5% of the internet company, never (yet) materialized into the acquisition many expected.
There have been concerns that the rate at which people clicking on the text ads next to Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) search results has been falling. These concerns caused spirited debate before the company's last earnings report and may have even pushed the firm's stock price down. But earnings were excellent, and much of the fear went away.
Now it turns out the Google ads are doing better and better, and clicks on ads at rivals are falling. The Wall Street Journal, using comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) data, reports that Google's performance improved in April and "Paid clicks for Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Yahoo Inc (NASDAQ:YHOO) meanwhile declined during the month, according to the data." The paper reports that Google's performance in the U.S. was 20% ahead of expectations.
Good for Google, but very bad for its two chief rivals. The information indicates that even if Microsoft buys Yahoo!, the combined operation will have a much smaller market share in search than Google, and its advertising will perform worse. If Microsoft and Yahoo! stay separate, their uphill battles could face extremely long odds.
From all the data available, Google's search technology brings back better results for consumers. Its technology for matching ads to searches also appears to work much better. The fight for the domination of this critical portion of the internet is over. The only question is whether the second and third place firms can make money long-term.
The deal for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to allow Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to sell text ads on the portal's search pages may happen more quickly than most analysts believed. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Yahoo Inc. moved closer to outsourcing its search advertising to Google Inc. after an initial test of the system yielded what the two firms deemed positive results."
The partnership could add several hundred million dollars of revenue to Yahoo!'s annual numbers. Most observers believe that regulators would be troubled by the two largest search companies joining forces.
The news still begs that question of whether any deal can be better than Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) offer to buy Yahoo! for over $29 a share. The first offer was at $31, but Microsoft's shares, part of the payment, have declined since then.
Yahoo!'s actions to run away from Microsoft seem to go along the lines of trying to stay independent for the sake of being independent. In other words, the company has no answer to the question of why investors are better off if Yahoo! stands alone.
Since no one other than Microsoft wants to buy the portal, the answer is that Yahoo! has lost all options to defend its present strategy. A deal with Google does not, in any way Yahoo! can explain, make the company worth $30 a share.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Google's (GOOG) shares continue to be stuck below $500 where they have been since late February. Part of the reason for the fall is that comScore data showed that the number of people who clicked on ads at the big search engine was weak in January.
It looks like the stock will drop again as "click rates" for Google ads rose only 3% in February when compared with the figures for the same month last year. According toMarketWatch: "Google reported 25% growth in paid clicks in its fiscal fourth quarter ended in December. But comScore data released last month showed flat growth in Google's paid clicks in January." Now, investors can ponder another piece of bad news.
The easy answer to the Google data is that a recession is slowing down advertising activity everywhere. Google carries millions of ads in its AdSense program, so it would make sense that it should suffer some fallout.
But, the answer may be more troubling than that. Readers of Google's search pages may be discovering that the text ads next to the listings are from marketers trying to take advantage of people looking for information by clogging pages with related messages. As more people understand the system of targeting based on search results, fewer are willing to be sucked in by companies trying to reach them due to their behavior.
If the Google system of matching ads to search results is putting its customers off, that would be worse news than the effects of a recession.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Henry Blodget at Silicon Alley Insider offers some good in "Google Sucks Life Out of Old Media." While we all know that, yes, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is a one-race pony and that its growth rates are slowing, there is no denying that Google continues to not only dominate the online ad party, but advertising in general as its growth rates mock anything else comparable out there.
Blodget looks at a couple of things here. First, he looks at the growth of advertising in general and its split between online and offline. Next, he looks at the split between online players and their growth prospects. His findings won't surprise Google bulls (this author included), but to see the actual numbers -- it's pretty staggering.
Specifically, some numbers from Blodget:
Total U.S. ad revenue (in 17 companies Blodget, et al., looked at) grew 9% from 2006 to 2007, from $53 billion to $58 billion.
Online ad revenue grew 28%, from $14 billion to $18 billion.
Wow. While 9% overall industry growth is interesting, though not jump-up-and-down-and-call-your-preacher numbers, online ad growth is seeing tremendous gains.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is the champion of search, but you wouldn't know it from its stock price lately. The stock has been clobbered as of late due to some differences of opinion over how to interpret certain data relating to click-throughs the monster search engine has been seeing. While this blogger's opinion is that paid search is probably the last thing to get hit on the advertising side during a recession, it is true that paid search would most likely suffer through an economic downturn.
There is no disagreement, though, over the potential for Google's acquisition of DoubleClick to have a significant impact on the company and on the online ad industry. Google has been working with both the U.S. and EU's antitrust departments to OK the merger. We got the go-ahead in the US in December and today, the EU OK'ed the deal as well.
In allowing the merger to go through, the EU concluded that Google could not successfully employ anti-competitive practices with the presence of viable ad serving competitors, like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO).
In what may end up being a net positive for eBay, albeit possibly an expensive one, a settlement has been reached in the litigation over patent infringement between eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) and MercExchange. Financial figures of the settlement have not been disclosed, but a report from Computerworldindicates that eBay shall purchase the three patents which were the subject of the litigation, as well as a number of other related technologies and developments.
Mike Jacobson, eBay senior vice president and general counsel, was quoted by Computerworld as stating: "In addition to resolving the litigation, this settlement gives us access to additional intellectual property that will help improve and further secure our marketplaces." MercExchange founder and CEO Thomas Woolston, is quoted in the same report as stating: "It seemed like the right time to put it behind us."
In May of 2003, a jury in the case found eBay guilty of patent infringement and an injunction was sought and granted. However, in reviewing the US Court of Appeals decision, the Supreme Court unanimously derailed the long standing practice of issuing immediate injunctions in cases of intellectual property infringement, insisting that in the future, such injunctions must meet the requirements of a four-factor test.
Bill Gates says Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will chase the search business whether it buys Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) or not. He says that the company's mighty tech arsenal will allow it to improve the efficiency of its search results and that it can take a larger share of the market based on that alone.
"We can afford to make big investments in the engineering and marketing that needs to get done. We will do that with or without Yahoo," said Gates in an interview withReuters. For a very smart man, Gates sounds dumb.
Microsoft currently has about 11% of the search market in the US. Its global piece is even smaller. Not only does Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) have a much larger share, it is also improving its technology as quickly, if not more quickly, than Redmond.
Gates may have been asked to make his comments to signal to Yahoo! that it will not raise its offer. It only needs the search portal so much. It can reach its goal on its own.
With investor interest high in China, this hasn't been lost on corporate investment. Companies must face the decision about how to address the Chinese juggernaut: essentially, to build, buy, or partner.
PaidContent.org has a story this morning that the Internet giant, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), is close to launching a joint venture to offer free music downloads in the Chinese market.
According to PaidContent, "Google is in the late planning stages of a JV with Chinese online music company Top100.cn, a Beijing-based site that currently sells licensed music downloads. The new service would permit Google's search engine in China to provide free and licensed music downloads, reports WSJ, citing sources."
This is significant in Google's push to counter leading Chinese search engine, Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU), which already provides links to download sites.
This move may help Google position itself vis-a-vis locally-favored Baidu.
Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author owns a long-term position in Google stock.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Chief Executive Jerry Yang is going to have to convince investors that the company he helped found in 1995 still matters when it reports fourth quarter results later today. It's not going to be easy.
The most visited Web site is expected to report its eighth straight quarter of declining profit. according to Bloomberg News. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting an average profit of 11 cents on revenue of $1.41 billion. Expectations, to put it kindly, are real low.
The view of Sanford Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay quoted by Bloomberg that Yahoo ``just isn't generating anything like the resources they need to really stay in the game" is typical. Yahoo shares have plunged more than 27% over the past year.
Unfortunately, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) isn't the only company taking a bite out of Yahoo which trails the search engine giant in every conceivable metric. Social networking sites such as Facebook continue to siphon away young users coveted by advertisers as are smaller niche sites, forcing Yahoo to offer rate discounts to advertisers.
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) had a very busy 2007 -- initiatives and projects, product launches and a furious growth rate that kept analysts guessing every single quarter. With so much going on at the world's most popular internet search engine, will Google lose focus on the bread-n-butter machine of its revenue -- web searches?
If Google would pour as much focus and resources into all its products as it does the constant refinements it gives its search-related advertising, the company would have many revenue legs to stand on (most likely). However, Google has a history of launching products to see how they do before dedicating too many resources to it. After all, it took years for text advertising on Google searches to produce billions in quarterly revenue. The more products prove themselves, the more attention they get.
What other products from Google will get more and more attention in 2008? The New York Times says that Google could eventually control 80% to 90% of internet searches, up from today's sub-70% level. Can Google really attain search engine growth to attain complete and utter domination of search?
If not, where are supplemental revenues going to come from? Google is lining up products to fill this void, but it can't lose focus on its core search business, even for a nanosecond. To fuel all the growth and the massive product launches from the company, the revenue will have to be there. Right now, that's all search -- and it must continue to be Google's main focus in everything it does.