Sears Holdings Coproation (SHLD) is a fascinating stock. It's done very well over the last year. Yet, who out there can claim that they'd be willing to buy the story without any trepidation whatsoever? Well, there are obviously many who would make such a claim, I suppose. I know I'm not one of them.

Our summary of retail quarterly reports tells us that Sears Holdings, which competes with Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Target Corporation (TGT), and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT), delivered an earnings-beating performance. Adjusted profit of $3.69 per share in Q4 represented a solid increase over the $2.94 per share booked in the comparable period.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) was selling off close to 5% at the time of this writing in reaction to the company's Q3 report. On an adjusted basis, the retailer lost 81 cents per share. That was better than the 90 cents lost in the comparable period, and it did beat the forecast as highlighted in our earnings preview.

I'm sort of shocked that the market didn't bid Sears higher. Going into the earnings news, the stock was hanging out near a 52-week high. Let's see, Wall Street sends the stock to the high point of the range, the release comes out, the loss isn't as bad as analysts expected it to be, and everyone sells. The market sure is strange sometimes, isn't it?

Well, last night I was checking out some articles at Brandweek.com, and lo and behold, I came across this one discussing the holiday card. You know how Christmas Clubs work at banks, correct? Same principle applies here. In a simple nutshell, you get the plastic, you store funds on it, and then you can access those funds later on in the season to acquire presents. It's basically like a gift card that you use for budgeting purposes. Not only is Sears involved in this, but so is Kmart. And there's a promotion going on that's mentioned in the article where you can earn a nominal amount of bonus money on it. I don't know the details; I would suggest checking with Sears/Kmart for further information.

Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD - option chain) shares have jumped higher today even after the company announced a Q3 loss that included slowing sales and falling margins. Earnings and revenues fell, but an extension of the company' s buyback plan is boosting the shares today, along with a positive outlook for the company's holiday layaway promotion. It might just be that investors expected even worse results from the beleaguered retailer. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SHLD.

SHLD opened this morning at $33.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.55 and a high of $38.47. As of 12:20, SHLD is trading at $36.67, up $4.83 (15.2%). The chart for SHLD looks bearish and S&P gives SHLD a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range.

We all know that this Christmas is going to be particularly tough on retailers. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), as well as hipper competitors Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), will be fighting it out at the mall Mad-Max style the next several weeks.

It's not going to be pretty. With comps and cash flows on the line, these chains will be looking to extract as much discretionary money from consumer wallets as is heavenly possible. But there's a troubling sign with respect to a popular gift option this year.

Gift cards have been soaring in popularity over the years. Not only do they make great presents, but retailers love them because they represent a little insurance policy: if the Christmas quarter isn't as strong as a retailer would like, then redemption of gift cards will theoretically help the bottom line in the next quarter. The card purchases do not get recorded as a sale until they are redeemed. So it's like a squirrel putting food away for the long, cold winter.

Unfortunately, we have some bad news on this front: gift-card sales are expected to be down 6% this season. That's not what retail investors want to hear. It's just another reason for traders to short this sector.

According to the press release, net sales advanced a mere 1.7%. Worse, same-store sales dropped over 3%. That's the important figure to consider when talking about retail. Target did okay in terms of cash from operations, but that doesn't mean that things will be great going forward. Not at all. In fact, although management produced a gain in operational cash flow, all of it -- and more -- was taken up by capital expenditures. This issue of cash is actually the big angle of the story for me. Management states in the release that it has stopped share-buyback activity and that it intends to be conservative concerning capital spending. It literally mentioned that its business is not necessarily attractive to invest in at the moment.

If that's the case, should you buy the stock now? I'd say you better think long and hard before buying Target at its current price level. As I write this, the stock is down about 2.5%. It isn't at the 52-week low, but I don't see how it won't go back there, and beyond, before the year is out. Is Target most likely a good long-term play? I'd say the company is. But it's difficult to look at this report and say that now is the time to buy, even for long-term thinkers. Sales are down, the company's credit-card business isn't scoring any points, and the outlook is not favorable. I guess I'm in a bearish mood when it comes to the bullseye retailer...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Do you like shopping at Target (NYSE: TGT)? Many people do. In fact, investors are hoping that so many people like buying things at the bullseye retailer that the company will beat earnings expectations for the third quarter. Target will be reporting on Monday, November 17. What should we expect?

Shareholders should expect a drop in the bottom line. Now, did we need a source to tell us this? Probably not. The consumer is starting to feel scared, there's no doubt about it. I'm sure everyone has anecdotal evidence concerning the fear that is out there. Consumers are afraid that the job cuts being reported in the papers will eventually reach their cubicle, so they're scaling back on spending. So, if Target merely meets the expectation for $0.49 per share next Monday, I'm sure many shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief, even though that will represent about a 12% drop in per-share profit.

I'm not so sure Target will beat, though. For one thing, Brent Archer recently reported on Target's lousy October sales data. They missed Wall Street's mark. Since Target beat the last two quarters; I figure we're due for a miss considering everything that's been going on. We shall see. I'll be interested to see how the margins are doing and what kind of position the company may be in going into Black Friday. And I'll be looking at the comps, of course.

Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) really blew its earnings numbers. According to Briefing.com, Sears' Q1 adjusted earnings missed by 68 cents. Nope, no beating by the proverbial penny here, folks. Sears was expected to report an adjusted profit closer to 15 cents per share; instead, not the 53 cent loss booked by the retailer. Man, that's bad. Wall Street also expected a better top-line performance. But Sears couldn't come through on that count, either. Net sales for the quarter declined almost 6% to a little more than $11 billion.

But wait, there's more bad news. Same-store sales at Sears took a turn for the worse, diving almost 10%! Comps at Kmart decreased 7%! The gross margin went down! Want more, or is that enough? The Sears story is not a good one. What's going on here? Well, the release does say something about a bad economy, but that isn't a worthwhile excuse. Sears simply needs to apply itself and get traffic into its stores. Use some thinking-outside-of-the-box marketing campaigns to reignite the brand's fire.

Sears Holding (NASDAQ: SHLD) is recently trading up 42 cents to $87.51 as shares near 45-month low.

SHLD is scheduled to release Q1 results on May 29.

SHLD call option volume of 13,028 contracts compares to put volume of 6,312 contracts. SHLD June call option implied volatility is at 51, puts are at 57. SHLD average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. SHLD puts are priced higher than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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