SeriousMoney posts
FeedPosted Apr 2nd 2010 1:20PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, General Electric (GE), Intel (INTC), Home Depot (HD), Employees, Walt Disney (DIS), Caterpillar (CAT), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Money and Finance Today, Bank of America (BAC), Boeing Co (BA), duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Economic Data, Kraft Foods'A' (KFT), Serious Money, DJIA
To those taking time off for Good Friday: "May the Force Be with You!" To those working half days, enjoy your time with your families. The U.S. stock markets are closed today and that might be best so that we all can take a breather.
Given that stock markets all around the world were up yesterday, including ours -- again ... April Fool's Day! -- even day traders expressed confidence because they obviously were willing to hold stocks knowing the long weekend left plenty of time for unforeseen bad news to to slam their positions.
Continue reading Serious Money: Dow Top Ten -- If Only the Market Was Open
Posted Mar 2nd 2010 3:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Products and Services, Competitive Strategy, Next Big Thing, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Japan, Serious Money, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG)

It was only a matter of time before Intuitive Surgical (
ISRG) surpassed it's previous all time high of $359.59 set on December 14, 2007. I have blogged many times about ISRG in my Chasing Value column. Today, I'm delighted that the stock is rising, but I think it is getting a bit rich and the value proposition has changed -- intra-day it hit $366.50.
Intuitive has a trailing P/E ratio of 61 and a projected P/E of 46. I commonly average the two for such volatile stocks which translates to 53.5. There are certain times when that might be alright, but with a PEG ratio (price-to-earnings-to-growth) of 2.05, this is not one of them. If you own it I am not suggesting selling it, but if you do not it might be wiser to put it on your watch list and wait for the market to calm down.
Continue reading Serious Money: Intuitive Surgical Hits New Highs
Posted Feb 9th 2010 2:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Wal-Mart (WMT), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), AFLAC Inc (AFL), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Campbell Soup (CPB), Chevron Corp (CVX), Chubb Corp (CB), ConocoPhillips (COP), CVS Corp (CVS), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Verizon Communications (VZ), duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Entrepreneurs, Serious Money, Stock Screen, Raytheon Company (RTN), Xcel Energy (XEL), EZCORP (EZPW), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV)

While most investors are fretting the markets recent contraction, you can be quite confident that "my pal Warren" has a smile on his face, as does Peter Lynch, Ken Heebner, Bill Miller, Bruce Berkowitz, and any number of fellow value investors that know now may be a time of opportunity. That is because they have the experience and understanding to pounce when they have a chance to buy things cheap.
This is the fourth installment of my series to discover just that: cheap stocks. If you would like to get on board from the beginning then review the initial post which screened for stocks with lower than market average P/E ratios, see
Serious Money: Market Looks Cheap to Me -- 35 Stocks. In the second installment, I looked at yield and PEG ratios:
Serious Money: Still Cheap Market -- 35 Stocks + Yields & Growth. Then I moved on to the the P/S and P/CF metrics in
Serious Money: Cheapest Stocks Yet -- From 35 to 26, cutting nine stocks.
Continue reading Serious Money: Cheapest Stocks List Shrinks from 26 to 21
Posted Feb 3rd 2010 10:40AM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: eBay (EBAY), Pfizer (PFE), Wal-Mart (WMT), International Business Machines (IBM), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), AFLAC Inc (AFL), Altria Group (MO), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), AutoZone Inc (AZO), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Campbell Soup (CPB), Chevron Corp (CVX), Chubb Corp (CB), ConocoPhillips (COP), CVS Corp (CVS), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), General Mills (GIS), Verizon Communications (VZ), duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Merck and Co (MRK), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Serious Money, Stock Screen, Raytheon Company (RTN), Xcel Energy (XEL), EZCORP (EZPW), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV)

Is the market overpriced? Maybe it is cheap, or perhaps it is fairly valued. This is the third in a series examining the issue. Still, it has been my contention that it does not make any difference because no matter how the market is valued as a whole, there are plenty of cheap stocks out there to accommodate a large amount of capital allocation even this deep into a bull run.
If you would like to follow along from the beginning, the initial post screened stocks for lower than market average P/E ratios:
Serious Money: Market Looks Cheap to Me -- 35 Stocks. In the second installment, I looked at yield and PEG ratios:
Serious Money: Still Cheap Market -- 35 Stocks + Yields & Growth.
Continue reading Serious Money: Cheapest Stocks Yet -- From 35 to 26
Posted Feb 1st 2010 2:50PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), eBay (EBAY), Pfizer (PFE), Wal-Mart (WMT), International Business Machines (IBM), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), AFLAC Inc (AFL), Altria Group (MO), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), AutoZone Inc (AZO), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Campbell Soup (CPB), Chevron Corp (CVX), Chubb Corp (CB), ConocoPhillips (COP), CVS Corp (CVS), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), General Mills (GIS), Verizon Communications (VZ), duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Merck and Co (MRK), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Serious Money, Stock Screen, Stocks to Buy, Raytheon Company (RTN), EZCORP (EZPW), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV)

Let's try and reduce the gambling by examining the facts and ignoring what the bulls and bears are chatting up at the moment. We started the process by screening for lower than market average P/E ratios, see:
Serious Money: Market Looks Cheap to Me -- 35 Stocks.
Two more important criteria influence today's review: the yield, a favorite of
"my pal Warren"; and the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) a focus of Peter Lynch, the retired fund manager extraordinaire of Fidelity's Magellan Fund.
Continue reading Serious Money: Still Cheap Market -- 35 Stocks + Yields & Growth
Posted Jan 28th 2010 3:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), eBay (EBAY), Pfizer (PFE), Wal-Mart (WMT), International Business Machines (IBM), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), AFLAC Inc (AFL), Altria Group (MO), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Campbell Soup (CPB), Chevron Corp (CVX), Chubb Corp (CB), ConocoPhillips (COP), CVS Corp (CVS), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), General Mills (GIS), duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Merck and Co (MRK), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Serious Money, Stock Screen, S and P 500, Xcel Energy (XEL), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV)

We frequently receive comments that the market is overpriced. Recently one of our active readers commented that the market P/E was 30, which it's not. The
actual rate (S&P forecast) has been even higher at times due to the volatile market.
The average should trend closer to the long term P/E of 15.7 in the next few years. However, I have reviewed companies often covered on our site and come up with a list of 35 stocks that have price-to-earning ratios below the long-term average already. I think there are dozens of bargains regardless of the status of the overall market.
Continue reading Serious Money: Market Looks Cheap to Me -- 35 Stocks
Posted Dec 28th 2009 3:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Bad News, Rants and Raves, Middle East, Scandals, Economic Data, Politics, Serious Money, Recession, Financial Crisis
Best wishes to all and, next to world peace among people, we should hope for the same among world markets.
I have let some time pass before commenting on a recent example of how fragile a world we live in. This past year through a time of greater economic danger, fear and volatility than most of us has experienced in a life time, many people cannot fathom how close we came to the edge of Hades.
Continue reading Serious Money: Dubai Vaporizes $48 Trillion
Posted Dec 11th 2009 1:20PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Rants and Raves, Apple Inc (AAPL), Serious Money, Commodities, Stocks to Sell

If you're into Apple (
AAPL) or gold for the long term and you have been in for a long time you can stay put. If you are in them to make a quick buck, get out quickly!
Apple and gold are at all time highs. Yes, they may go higher, but not much and not soon.
The reason is that both Apple and gold (and probably golden apples) already include all the product info and inflation fears that could be. The next level is pure speculation. Do you want to speculate or invest? If the latter, invest elsewhere.
Continue reading Serious Money: Sell Apple, sell gold!
Posted Dec 4th 2009 5:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Management, Competitive Strategy, General Electric (GE), International Business Machines (IBM), American Express (AXP), FedEx Corp (FDX), Deere and Co (DE), Serious Money, Stock Screen

We started this
review with 25 stocks of companies noted for their quality of management and how successful they have been at nurturing new leaders as presented in Fortune magazine. After running them through a serious screening process using universally agreed upon key metrics, the list has been reduced to six candidates for potential investment.
I will reiterate that there is no imperative to invest in any of them even if they might be among the best opportunities from a select list. While I think all of the original companies listed and stocks screened are well regarded that does not mean now is the right time to invest.
Regardless of the outcome of this process, and since price and timing are critical, it would be smart to create a stock watch-list with the inclusion of all six of these companies.
Continue reading Serious Money: Fortune's 25 leaders, final 4
Posted Dec 2nd 2009 1:40PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, General Electric (GE), PepsiCo (PEP), Intel (INTC), McDonald's (MCD), International Business Machines (IBM), 3M Corporation (MMM), American Express (AXP), FedEx Corp (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Procter and Gamble (PG), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Lilly (Eli) (LLY), Deere and Co (DE), Unilever ADR (UL), Serious Money, Stock Screen, China Mobile Limited (CHL),
This is the third screening to find value among Fortune's 25 corporate world leaders that have demonstrated an ability to regenerate themselves from within. The list has been cut to 18 and will be cut further here.
The methodology of using basic stock data points to identify potential value investments only sets the stage for success -- it assures nothing. While it is true that paying less is better than paying more and getting a higher yield is better than less, this gives you a scant picture of what is in people's hearts and minds, and that is harder to judge. Like the weather, no matter the predictions, you may not find out it is raining until you are standing in it. Regardless, it should be advantageous to start with good stock (pun intended) before you take to whittlin', and that we have.
Continue reading Serious Money: Fortune's 25 leaders, 18 remain
Posted Dec 1st 2009 6:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: General Electric (GE), PepsiCo (PEP), Intel (INTC), McDonald's (MCD), International Business Machines (IBM), 3M Corporation (MMM), American Express (AXP), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), FedEx Corp (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Procter and Gamble (PG), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Lilly (Eli) (LLY), Deere and Co (DE), Unilever ADR (UL), Serious Money, Stock Screen, China Mobile Limited (CHL)
Yesterday I started a review of 25 companies that Fortune deemed most successful according to their peers in developing quality leadership. Today I review the remaining 20, searching to find the ones that might be worth investing in.
Price-to-book (from 11/27/09) was used as the first value screen. The theory being from a value investor's perspective that buying for a price at or near the break-up value of the company provides downside protection. Of course that is easier said than done.
Continue reading Serious Money: Fortune's 25 leaders, now 20
Posted Nov 30th 2009 1:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Management, General Electric (GE), PepsiCo (PEP), Intel (INTC), McDonald's (MCD), International Business Machines (IBM), 3M Corporation (MMM), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), American Express (AXP), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), FedEx Corp (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Procter and Gamble (PG), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Lilly (Eli) (LLY), Deere and Co (DE), Unilever ADR (UL), Serious Money, Stock Screen, China Mobile Limited (CHL),
The recent issue of Fortune magazine discusses how the best of the best train, guide and nurture top managers to become the leaders that will propel their corporations successfully forward. They list the top 25 companies, which I have used as the basis of a new review to see how they would fair against common metric screens.
In the past few months, many articles have posited that large-cap stocks should excel in the coming year based on their lagging the market behind smaller, more volatile stocks flying out of the March lows. I do not believe this is universally true. Plenty of large-cap stocks did well, such as Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), while many small caps went nowhere. Even among the large caps included in Fortune's "Leadership 25," some have doubled.
Continue reading Serious Money: Fortune's 25 leaders among leaders
Posted Nov 4th 2009 2:40PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Management, Rants and Raves, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Serious Money, Headline News, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), Best Stocks for 2009

Yesterday it was announced very loudly that
"my pal Warren" was
going to acquire the 77.4% of the
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE:
BNI) railroad, that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) does not already own, for $100 per share, offering about a $24 premium to Mondays closing price.
Talk about putting your money where your mouth is --
yikes! Buffett has gone all in, betting the economy is healing, and silencing anyone that questioned his integrity or motives for cautious optimism saying it was all talk!
Continue reading Serious Money: Questions as Buffett's money & mouth converge on BNI
Posted Nov 2nd 2009 2:20PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades, Rants and Raves, Ford Motor (F), CIT Group (CIT), Kellogg Co (K), Serious Money, Headline News, DJIA, Federal Reserve, Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND)

What a week it was and it is starting off with more of the same! The day before Halloween the market gets spooked. The Dow drops 200 one day, rises 200 the next, and falls 250 to close the week. Yes, financial pundits could point to meaningful stories about the dollars rise, consumer spending sagging, the recession ending and so forth to explain market reactions but there is more to it than that.
Even among the 15 positions discussed in
Where should granny put $50,000? only the
Vanguard Total Bond Market exchange-traded fund (NYSE:
BND) and the
Kellogg Co (NYSE:
K) were up last Friday. Good thing I advised "granny" to put half her funds in the ETF.
Continue reading Serious Money: Jumpy stock market but Special 'K' doing fine
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