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Options update: CBS volatility at record on Redstone, ad growth, possible news spin-out

CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS) option implied volatility at record levels:


Reasons for the volatility:

1) Chairman Sumner Redstone, the largest shareholder, publicly feuding with her daughter and heir apparent, Shari Redstone.

2) CBS Radio facing increased competition if the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) allows Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) to merge. The leader of the combined SIRI company would be current SIRI CEO Mel Karmazin, a past leader of CBS Radio and Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA).

3) Decreasing broadcasting revenue growth guidance.

4) The expectations of a CBS News and Katie Couric partnership-spin-out.

CBS has a market cap of $18.8 billion with long term debt of $7 billion. CBS had September 2007 quarterly total income of $3.2 billion. CBS over all option implied volatility of 31 was above its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Viacom earnings exceed low expectations

Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) today reported second quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street's low expectations.

Net income was $434 million, or 63 cents per share, compared with $437 million, or 61 cents, the New York-based company said in a press release. Revenue rose 13% to $3.19 billion. Excluding gains and charges, profit was 54 cents. Analysts had expected earnings of 50 cents on revenue of $3.07 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Advertising revenue rose 6% to $1.15 billion while affiliate fees jumped 15% to $577 million. Though profit was hurt by higher costs, revenue from its cable channels rose 10 percent to $1.92 billion, helped by a gain on the sale of MTV Networks' investment in Russia and an impairment charge from Amp'd Mobile.

Strong box office receipts from its Dreamworks SKG films "Shrek the Third" and "Over the Hedge" helped push up revenue in the Filmed Entertainment business by 20% to $1.31 billion. David Jones, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co., told Bloomberg News that the unit outperformed his expectations by about $100 million.

Shares of Viacom are down more than 7% this year as investors continue to worry about who will succeed chairman Sumner Redstone who reportedly is feuding now with his daughter Shari.

"Revenue was better than expected because filmed entertainment outperformed by about $100 million or so,'' David Joyce, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, said in an interview. He has a "buy'' rating on the shares and doesn't own them.

Will irascible old monster Sumner Redstone sell Viacom?

Sumner Redstone, Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) Chairman, has reportedly forced his daughter Shari off its board. And Dealbook reports that with Shari gone, the chance of keeping Viacom in the family has evaporated.

Sumner Redstone, 84, is nothing if not a survivor. Back before he owned Viacom and CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS), in 1979, he found himself in room 341 of Boston's Copley Plaza Hotel when the place caught fire. So Redstone climbed out on the ledge and held on with one arm while severe burns covered nearly half his body. The gnarled claw of that hand is a testament to his survival instincts.

But Redstone has also managed to alienate his family. He divorced his long-time wife Phyllis a few years ago -- she alleged he was fooling around with the much younger ex-wife of former hairdresser and now producer, John Peters. And his son Brent sued him arguing that Sumner and Shari forced Brent off the board of their privately-held movie theater chain, National Amusements. But the chance for keeping Viacom in the family looked good when he appointed his daughter Shari to the Viacom board.

I don't know why they had a falling out -- possibly disagreements over National Amusements about whether to spin-it off (Sumner) or invest further in it (Shari) -- but with Shari rumored to be on her way out, there are many media companies that would love to own Viacom. News Corp (NYSE: NWS), General Electric Co.'s (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), owner of this blog, all come to mind as possible suitors.

With Viacom up 3% on the news, let the bidding begin!

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns General Electric stock, has consulted to News Corp.'s chairman, and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned in this post.

Redstone family fueding; Shari to quit Viacom board

Shari Redstone, has clashed with her cantankerous father Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) Chairman Sumner Redstone over the future of the family's National Amusements theater chain and plans to leave the media company's board, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Sumner Redstone wants to cash out of the theater business and focus on casinos while Shari Redstone is "confident" in the future of the business, the paper said. But for VIacom, there is more at stake than just family pride. The 84-year-old Redstone has no designated successor which raises questions about the future of Viacom because to put it bluntly the tycoon isn't going to live forever.

Shari and Sumner Redstone are far from the only family fued at large media companies. In fact, Redstone has also had a falling out with his son Brent who later filed suit and got bought out of the family business, something which his sister also wants, according to the Journal.

News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) CEO Rupert Murdoch has had a rocky relationship with his children. Of course, the Bancroft family that controls Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ) has been squabbling about Murdoch's efforts to buy the publisher of the Journal. Then there's the Dolans of Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) whose family fights are always entertaining.

There are exceptions. The Washington Post Co.'s (NYSE: WPO) Grahams seem to be a content lot and with Warren Buffett helping run their family business who can blame them. The Sulzberger clan of the New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) also seem to keep their dirty laundry private. Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) Chief Executive Brian Roberts and his father Ralph, who built the cable empire, seem to get along just fine as well.

But unless Dr. Phil can bring father and daughter together, the Viacom fight won't be solved any time soon. That's reason enough to avoid the stock.

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 02:34 PM

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