No more home mortgages for the time being. The former number two originator of home mortgages in the United States, IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB), is shutting down its operations and laying off 3800 workers, more than half of its employees.
By halting its prime business, IMB might as well have announced they have turned to stone, as it seems its financial situation is frozen for now. Last quarter it announced continued losses and changed its outlook from being profitable in the fourth quarter to seeing nothing but losses through 2008.
It is always difficult to discuss one's failings, but nothing has been worse than my suggestion that IndyMac might be a screaming buy last year. The stock is down 97%. The sad truth is it was a screaming sell and my worst call since I have been writing for BloggingStocks.com. That will be a separate story.
Today, IndyMac is trading down 47% to $0.37. It will have to restructure once again and will be submitting a survival plan to the FDIC. The current market cap is about $37 million, while its losses over the last twelve months exceed $600 million.
The Bush administration has taken the approach that business can do no harm. So we have had eight years of the fox guarding the hen house. Adding a few more thoughts to yesterday's Sunday Funnies: Business should have NBA type salary cap. The subject of executive pay at public corporations sometimes raises eyebrows, sometimes raises voices, and often loud protests.
When companies perform poorly financially and it is reflected in the share price the protests are even louder and more justified.
Like they say about pornography... When executive pay becomes so high that it becomes obscene, you may not be able to define it exactly, but you know it when you see it!
Unfortunately these protests are not coming from the board room, or large institutional investors or pension funds, although they should! They come from the "hard working stiffs" that go unheard and disrespected -- and the common shareholder.
On June 30, 2008, the last PCs with Windows XP were sold (theoretically) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) went hard on Vista, its less than celebrated operating system. I was one of the hold outs, opting to buy my laptop with Windows XP last year even though Vista was being touted as the latest and greatest system. Today, I am sure the remaining XP devices are going for a premium.
What does this mean for the future of PC sales? I think there will be some measure of reduced PC sales in the short run just because the economy is already suffering and consumers and businesses are looking to stretch their devalued dollars.
It also means that some people that do not want the burdensome Vista system and all the baggage that goes along with it will be opting for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Macs. There are many people like me who have been weighing the switch to a Mac for a while. The rest of my household has made the switch (4 Macs, 1 PC) and I did consider this prior to my last purchase. I may swing the other way next time.
For other PC users who remain satisfied with XP, they may not only think to stretch their dollars, but try and hang onto their PCs longer until the value proposition for Vista becomes more convincing. I can always add more memory or speed to my existing computer.
I do not know what the trade-off is for Microsoft. It would make money selling the XP system as well as the Vista system. Any slowdown of PC sales or continued movement toward Apple products has to hurt revenue a little?
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.
This past holiday weekend my colleague Doug McIntyre gave support to a blog I wrote in May 2007 when he posted Google (GOOG): The Failure Of YouTube. In my rant I gave a detailed analysis outlining how Google had overpaid for YouTube by a fantastic amount.
In the story Doug quotes projections that 2008 revenue generated by Google might gross $200 million from YouTube. That's revenue, not profit. A 20% profit would be $40 million if that was possible. In the article I wrote: How can I say Google overpaid for YouTube? I stated the case in plain English why the YouTube investment would have to earn $300 million (net, not gross) minimum, in its first year not to be dillutive.
They missed the target by a mile. They will continue to miss the target and I do not expect it to ever justify the cost. Just because Google has lots of cash slushing around does not mean they have money to waste.
Most people in the United States and for sure shareholders of losing companies have been railing against executive pay for many years. It is generally agreed the salaries, bonuses, stock options, deferred compensation, and retirement packages have become ridiculous and do not reflect anything other then the "good ol' boy network" operating at its worst.
Compensation committees substantiate their decisions in a fashion that outlines plausible deniability not merit, value or truth. They do not reflect shareholders, employees, or customers best interest. They reflect a tight knit group that has to pay and pay big so that they can get theirs in the next round.
This brings me to the National Basketball Association and its use of the salary cap. We just witnessed an NBA finals where the better team won (Boston Celtics in six games) and that is the nature of the game. It's five on five, the best player does not take every shot and the best player cannot defend the other team by himself.
While some companies may be consolidating, others are reconfiguring and expanding. General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) has acquired a small airplane engine company in the Czech Republic. Selling it's appliance business and adding more to it's portfolio of aircraft and engine capability should be a good move. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported today that GE hopes to improve its competitive position against Pratt & Whitney.
A response from a Pratt & Whitney spokesman played down the increased competition and said that although the company takes this GE move seriously it has a 45-year history producing small engines and holds a solid position in the market place. This type of comment is to be expected and has some validity, but that does not make it good news for P&W.
P&W is a division of another major giant industrial conglomerate United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). Both GE and UTX stocks were up in early morning trading today.
UPDATE: GE closed at $26.91 up $0.40 (1.51%). UTX closed at $61.05 up $1.35 ( 2.26%).
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GE.
Last year, actually 18 months ago now, James Cramer had enough faith in the Rite Aid Corp (NYSE: RAD) to include it in his 2007 picks. At that time the stock was trading for $5.49 per share. It closed yesterday at $1.56 and is trading further down today.
When I say RAD is wrong, wrong, wrong, I mean it literally. There is a store located a few blocks from my office that I shop at perhaps once a month. Yesterday I bought a few things and was amazed at how bad their accounting was.
My primary mission was to acquire some toothpaste, but there are always a few tempting sale items. When I was checking out I discovered that the sports drink for sale at "5 for $5 dollars" was a mistake and the sign in the store display should have been taken down because the offer had expired. Another item I purchased was marked down from $3.99 to $1.99, great deal! . . . but they told me that the sale price was placed on the wrong shelf for that product and what I wanted was not on sale.
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.
Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.
It was only last week that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) caused havoc in the stock market (or at least lead the charge) downgrading Citigroup Inc.(NYSE: C), and General Motors (NYSE: GM) among others, but now they have started to express concern that some of the defense sector stocks may be vulnerable to the next president's ax.
It was only a few weeks ago I posted Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon: The defense does not rest and things continued to look bright until a few days later, perhaps after the GS behind the scenes warning started to have an impact on the market that the sector took a mysterious swoon -- now I know why.
If Goldman Sachs, one of the few investment houses with any credibility left, makes a move everyone else seems to want to get out of the way.
I have viewed the defense sector favorably this year and will not abandon ship because GS is getting cold feet. They have been rather negative on everything lately and I do not think the (stock) world is coming to an end.
The Bloomberg article notes that while some programs will be cut others will be added. It is all a guessing game as either presidential candidate will want to review the entirety of defense expenditures in a new administration.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GD.
It should be no surprise to anyone that despite all the ranting and raving to the contrary Mr. Carl Icahn, billionaire investor, shareholder white knight and corporate raider is heating up things in the Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) boardroom.
It has been reported that he purchased a sizable chunk of the company in the neighborhood of $25 per share, hoping to make another fortune pushing Yahoo back to the negotiating table with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).
This morning AP reported that Jerry Yang, CEO and company are lobbying major shareholders to rally support for their position that Yahoo! should get a higher offer or stand alone as an independent company. It seems to me that they are standing on lose ground given that many large and small shareholders alike have already spoken, and they would have taken the deal.
The market has spoken as well, with Yahoo stock losing over a third of it's value recently and nearing $20 per share this morning Icahn is losing 20% of his investment as things look today. This is turning into the battle of the billionaires.
I think this whole saga might make a cute Neil Simon play if they would let him into the meetings to take some notes.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares in the stocks mentioned in this story.
A few days ago I posted Chasing Value: Valero -- when is a downgrade an upgrade? and since then I have become even more disturbed with our government and the stock analysts, as well as the companies they represent. Eitan Bernstein, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co downgraded his expectations for the major oil refiners Wednesday and lowered his price target for Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) from $77 to $65.
How can this be? The stock was trading around $40 per share and closed Friday at $39.96. As a shareholder who has watched this stock go down, any signs of optimism have to be welcome I suppose, but what in the world is this guy saying. He is saying he has concerns about the sector, but believes VLO will be 61.5% higher this time next year any way!
This makes no sense. He can't be too concerned, can he? If you believed him you would buy all the VLO shares you could get hold of -- and so would he! Maybe he did? Or maybe he is trying to pump up the stock to help a big client? Or maybe he is clueless and does not know what he is talking about? What might his e-mails reveal?
Anyone can predict anything, and they have a right to be an idiot, but what responsibility does he have to eat his own cooking? VLO started the year near a high that is between Bernstein's old and new projections, and I for one have hopes of it rebounding, but I do not have the level of certainty to broadcast such an exact figure. What is the purpose?
The change in his projections of 15.5% is indicative of the silliness of this analysis. We have seen this before and will see it again ... so buyer beware.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.
This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.
There are probably very few people growing up in North America that have not had Kellogg's (NYSE: K) cereal at some time. I know people that have breakfast cereal for lunch or diner as well. It is the number one U.S. breakfast cereal maker, ahead of General Mills (NYSE: GIS). Among its well-known brands are Frosted Flakes and Rice Krispies.
The company, founded by Keith (W.K.) Kellogg and brother, Dr. John Harvey Kellogg, began with only 44 employees in 1906. Today it employs more than 30,000 people, manufactures in 18 countries, and sells products in more than 180 countries.
Kellogg is a big company in a small town but it is not alone. Battle Creek, Michigan, known as the "Cereal City," is the world headquarters of Kellogg Company and also the home of Post Cereals, which was part of General Foods Corporation and is now part of Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT). When Kellogg started, there were 42 other cereal companies in Battle Creek.
What can I say, one of my best stocks picks of 2007 has turned into one of my worst of 2008. Valero Energy(NYSE: VLO) the largest independent oil refiner in the United States has experienced shrinking profit margins as oil prices have continued to climb throughout the year.
It was reported in the Associated Press that a Wall Street analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co downgraded his expectations for the major oil refiners Wednesday. In regards to VLO, analyst Eitan Bernstein lowered his price target from $77 to $65.
Analysts are notoriously optimistic and I myself would not hazard a guess picking a number out of thin air given the number of variables to consider, but I would go as far as to say this downgrade makes me laugh.
The stock closed yesterday at $41.25 and is trading down further today around $40. But this is considerably lower then anyones price targets for the stock so perhaps this is a case where the downgrade is actually an upgrade.
This is a company with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.43 and a price-to-book of 1.42 that accompany a P/E of 7 and a yield of 1.41%. I may have been caught in the downdraft of a cyclical stock recommending it last December, but I sure do feel more comfortable recommending to readers that they examine VLO today.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.
This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.
The Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) is capitalized at about $40 billion dollars and produces a multitude of household and industrial products that probably touch most Americans lives in some way. It is the largest chemical company in the U.S. and number two worldwide (ahead of ExxonMobil and behind BASF), and it is also a leader in performance plastics.
On May 18, 1897, Dow Chemical incorporated, based on Herbert H. Dow's plan to manufacture and sell bleach on a commercial scale. A year later they were in full-scale commercial production. The Dow-in-diamond mark was created to help resolve product shipping problems. In 1900, the Midland Chemical Company merged into Dow Chemical.
The company was always evolving under the guidance of Mr. Dow, who in 1913 announced the company would exit the bleach business to refocus to the value of chlorine as a raw material, prompting Dow stock to rise dramatically.
GM stock closed yesterday at $12.81 but today traded down to a new 52-week low of $11.21; as of 1:15, it is at $11.51, down nearly 10%.
GM is trading at a 30 year low. "Today's drop came after a Goldman Sachs analyst cut his rating for GM to "Sell" from "Neutral" and his price target to $11 from $16, saying things could still get worse for the North American automotive industry as a whole."
I wonder if he read my post yesterday . . . probably not. I am not a big fan of analysts as a group but this did not take a crystal ball. Barron's should do a follow-up story explaining how their crystal ball got so fogged up.