Look before you leap! All year long rumors have been swirling around that E*TRADE (ETFC) was on the auction block being prepared for an acquisition by a bigger fish interested in its customers and superior trading platform. I have not used E-TRADE so I do not have first hand experience. However, this has been acknowledged broadly and I have received very positive comments from regular users when I have written about it.
The leading suitor seems to be TD AmeriTrade Holding (AMTD), with Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) mentioned as perhaps having similar but less conspicuous interest. For Schwab it may be as much about keeping E-TRADE out of a competitors hands as chasing the business.
Fourteen stocks have been reviewed so far with eight of them potential contenders for 2010. These include some picks from 2009, some old dependables and a few more on the speculative side.
During the year I have written on occasion about selling put options (naked puts) because the premiums offered were very generous and from my perspective assumed market collapse. This was reflected in my July post Serious Money: The world's dumbest market
Today I am considering four naked puts and two more stocks. The options are all based on stocks now in review.
The only thing that has been devalued faster than our precious dollar is the perpetual slide in government credibility. Over the years we have heard countless times about the importance of a strong dollar from our leaders.
"Our administration believes in and will do everything in its power to support a strong dollar" or something like this has been spewed out by Republicans and Democrats alike, yet there is little evidence that the policies put in place over the past century have done anything of the sort. Perhaps there was one person that took the heat and did the right thing -- Paul Volcker, during the Carter administration, who had to deal with dizzying inflation.
In this installment of our search for the ten picks for 2010, I will risk my reputation (and money) as I head in a more speculative direction. In Part 1 of this series, I discussed breaking up my potential picks into three categories: "Contender", "On the Fence", and "Out of the Running", until the 10 stocks have been identified.
The following lists the first ten stocks I discussed and the current standing after Part 2 of this series, plus four new stocks reviewed today.
The clock is ticking away the time before the year ends and I have only begun to sort out the possibilities. In Part 1 of this series, I discussed breaking up my potential picks into three categories: contender, on the fence, and out of the running until the 10 stocks have been identified.
Four contenders have been considered so far: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Anglo American ADR (AAUKY) and Diageo plc (DEO).
Six more are included in today's review: EZCorp Inc. (EZPW), General Electric Company (GE), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Annaly Capital Management ( NLY), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) plus Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). These include the remaining five from 2009 and one more familiar to most investors.
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
In sharing my adventures and opinions in the investment world I try very hard to be candid without crossing the line into being a promoter. That said, I have been buying stock regularly over the last 12 months and buying on fear has paid off handsomely. As the market has catapulted upward since March the opportunities have diminished. However, I did add PSEC in the last month.
Yesterday it was announced very loudly that "my pal Warren" was going to acquire the 77.4% of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) railroad, that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) does not already own, for $100 per share, offering about a $24 premium to Mondays closing price.
Talk about putting your money where your mouth is -- yikes! Buffett has gone all in, betting the economy is healing, and silencing anyone that questioned his integrity or motives for cautious optimism saying it was all talk!
What a week it was and it is starting off with more of the same! The day before Halloween the market gets spooked. The Dow drops 200 one day, rises 200 the next, and falls 250 to close the week. Yes, financial pundits could point to meaningful stories about the dollars rise, consumer spending sagging, the recession ending and so forth to explain market reactions but there is more to it than that.
One of my wonderful friends, Ms. P, asked me for some guidance on how she might allocate $50,000 currently earning peanuts in a money market account. Though she is decades from becoming a grandmother, after a brief discussion about her financial parameters, it became clear to me that she was looking for a "granny fund."
In reality, my recommendations would be suitable, and perhaps desirable, for many passive investors as well.
The $50,000 is a portion of money Ms. P has set aside to purchase a home, which might happen in six months, but could also be pushed out further, depending on the economy and her situation. Basically, she wants to cover all her bases because she might need the money at any time and does not want to be caught short, while at the same time she would like to generate some revenue without taking any big risks.
We keep hearing that consumer spending propels 70% of our economy and that we will not see real growth without an increase in consumer confidence, meaning spend, spend, spend. This is very bad advice! Let other people spend -- you should be saving!
This is a theme I have been hammering on all year and I will continue to do so. I believe this is so important to our personal and national long term health that any true investment discussion, be it on the web, radio, television, newspapers or magazines, is just blowing smoke if it is not a primary focus.
They say you should not look a gift horse in the mouth. Sorry folks, sometimes you do. In the case of the recently catapulting Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT), which I bought at 60 cents a share, I am.
I have been following this company for a while and have both made and lost money. Although it started out as a penny stock for me it has jumped over 150% in a week and closed today at $3.61 up $0.39 (12.11%) -- for a total gain to date of 502%. So why am I complaining?
Last Friday the market reacted favorably (or less negatively) to the latest report from the Labor Department's unemployment figures of 9.7 percent in August, as employers cut 216,000 jobs last month. The percentage is up but the raw numbers are trending down allowing for a sigh of relief on Wall Street with the major indices all up over 1%.
Many would argue that when it comes to the truth, the government is prone to favor aesthetic figures instead of the straight data. I tend to agree with this view as the numbers appear sculpted to be the least offensive.
If you are not reading the commentary we receive then you are missing some gems. One of our regulars reminded me of something"my pal Warren" said: "... find companies which can be run by idiots because sooner or later an idiot will be running it."
In Buffett's case he can actually call them up and talk to them. In many cases, he could probably get them to resign. For most of us, all we know is basic things like how's the stock price or has the idiot been indicted?