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Best Trades of 2008: #4 Buying DryShips (DRYS) at the November low

During the bull market in commodities that peaked midway through 2008, shipping companies that transfer base commodities across the oceans enjoyed phenomenal runs to all-time highs before fizzling out like a Roman candle.

Companies that carry wheat, corn, soybeans, fertilizer, cement, iron ore pellets and sugar were printing money as the day rates for shipping dry commodities soared.

The rate charged by dry bulk shipping companies to buyers of commodities abroad, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), began 2008 at roughly $5,800 per day. The rate topped out at $11,700 midyear, and bottomed out in early December at $675 -- a 94% correction. Absolutely unbelievable!

Shares of the most widely traded stock within the dry bulk shipping sector, DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS), traded as high as $116 in May, reflecting the fullness of the commodity rally that seemed to be irreversible based on the glowing projections of China, India, central Europe and what are now known as "Frontier Economies," like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Following that meteoric rise in shares of DRYS to $116, the stock proceeded to careen all the way down to $3 in November.

Continue reading Best Trades of 2008: #4 Buying DryShips (DRYS) at the November low

Best Trades of 2008: 5 moves that could have made you rich

For most investors and traders, 2008 was a tough year. But while many people saw their portfolio take a merciless beating and watched their retirement vanish into thin air, there were a select few who made a killing.

In fact, if you had been on the right side of any of these bets, you could have banked enough dough to make up for your losses and then some.

Here are five trades everyone wishes they had made in 2008:

#1 Shorting 'Chindia' the day after New Year's: The Chindia experience peaked in Beijing with Michael Phelps, and the market knew it would a year and a day before the Closing Ceremonies.

#2 Getting long and staying long the 30-year Treasury bond: This strategy went from being a modestly successful trade through October to a hero-sized trade in the past 45 days.

#3 Shorting oil on the Fourth of July: The drop in oil prices has been nothing short of unbelievable. Those that had the fortitude to short crude in early July (and had the stones to stay with that trade) made a killing.

#4 Buying DryShips (DRYS) at the November low: Following its meteoric rise to $116, the stock careened all the way down to $3. But if you went long then, you saw the share price quadruple in less than a month.

#5 Shorting 'too big to fail' Fannie and Freddie: This shorting strategy defied all odds and pretty much defined the year for the stock market.

Teekay LNG (TGP): Shipping profits in natural gas

"Natural gas is one of the world's most-sought-after fuels; not only is it cleaner burning and more efficient than traditional fossil fuels, it's also more efficient to transport," says Keith Fitz-Gerald.

In his always-intriguing The Money Map Reporter, he explains, "Our latest featured idea is Bermuda-based Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP), a liquid natural gas shipper which we consider a safe port in any economic storm."

"Many investors don't realize that liquid natural gas (LNG) comes from Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar and other faraway places – transported by specially designed ships – and that we don't have the industrial capacity to meet modern-day demand.

"Teekay LNG Partners LP is a publicly traded master limited partnership formed by Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), a provider of international transportation services for petroleum products.

"The company provides marine transportation services for LNG through a fleet of ships that it owns or operates under various long-term contracts known as 'time charters.' These 15 to 20-year pacts are reached with such major energy companies.

Continue reading Teekay LNG (TGP): Shipping profits in natural gas

Frontline (FRO): The 'mac daddy' of oil transports

"Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) is the 'mac daddy' of the oil transport business," says growth and income expert Bryan Perry, who has added the shares to the model portfolio of his 25% Cash Machine.

"Frontline is doing a much better job of executing profits in the current market for transporting crude oil. FRO posted first quarter results that showed a jump in profits of 40%, with a dividend hiked to $2.75 for the quarter. That translates into a current annual yield of 18.25%. Even better, the company forecasts continued strength in operations and quarterly distributions.

"This kind of profit growth is a result of FRO being leveraged to the spot market for day charter rates for double-hull tankers. The company is by far-and-away the largest shipping company, with 76 vessels and a market cap of $4.4 billion.

Continue reading Frontline (FRO): The 'mac daddy' of oil transports

Bulk up with bulk shipping stocks

"I think that the most compelling stocks are the dry bulk shippers," says Charles Payne. In his Wall Street Market Commentary, he looks at the sector, its implications for the economy and his favorite picks.

"The dry bulk shipping group had been under a fair amount of pressure after a meteoric rally that said rates would come on with a Tiger Woods-like rebound after swooning at the start of the year.

"I consider the dry bulk index the best barometer of the health of the global economy. There is no doubt that at some point higher crude oil becomes the headwind everyone says it is, but I'm still not sure that level has been reached yet.

"On the global stage, many nations are paying substantially more for gasoline than the U.S. and yet their economies continue to improve. Obviously, on the one hand we would like crude oil to respond to a demand tipping point by way of Americans saying 'no mas.'

"By the same token; however, it would also be encouraging to know/see the economy getting better even in the face of this would-be headwind. I have to say that recent slide in dry bulk rates could be more technical rather than some sort of reaction to higher crude oil; the long-term trend is intact and today's action is compelling.

"Our favorites in the group include Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK) which looks great in current trading, Teekay Shipping (NYSE: TK), and Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX). All of these stocks are oversold and have tremendous room on the upside."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Serious Money: So, what about Seaspan Corp (SSW)?

Do you have a good financial advisor? They are hard to come by, from my experience. If you are in business you probably get somebody fresh out of business school (if that) calling at least every other day. I am very cynical about the entire financial industry and think that much of what passes for good professional advice is neither good nor professional. I harped on this a little yesterday in Sunday Funnies: Analysts must have a great sense of humor.

If one were to measure many of our foremost fianancial institutions by how well they manage their own affairs, then most of them would come up wanting. The investment banks, ratings agencies, mortgage banks and even the federal watchdogs have made a poor showing over the past year and we are all paying for it.

Recently I made the acquaintance of a Michael G., who is a broker with a major financial institution that is advising a good friend of mine and seems to contradict my generally negative opinion of the industry. He was the seed that grew into my Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS) recommendation and last month I was happy to post Chasing Value: PDS up 75% in Q1, announces distribution.

In my conversation with Mike, Seaspan Corp (NYSE: SSW) was his latest intrigue. According to AOL Money & Finance data, Seaspan maintains a fleet of about 30 vessels. Its charter operations are managed by sister company Seaspan Management Services Limited. Both companies are a part of The Washington Marine Group, a group of companies that focus on marine transportation and ship building.

Continue reading Serious Money: So, what about Seaspan Corp (SSW)?

Teekay Shipping (TGP): A 'port in a storm'

"Shipping stocks can be a good port in a financial storm," says Ivan Martchev in Leeb's Income Performance Letter. Here, the advisor looks at Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP).

"Some shippers take their chances in the spot market; these should be avoided. Teekay, however, offers a high yield and lower earnings volatility due to its lower-than-average exposure to the spot market.

"Teekay is well exposed to the growing market for liquidified natural gas (LNG). The growth profile of the LNG market is compelling. The vast majority of the world's natural gas reserves are stranded in Eurasia and the Middle East, while consumption is greatest in the U.S., Far East and Europe.

"Imports of LNG to the U.S., for example, are expected to increase by more than 400%, by some estimates, between now and 2012. Clearly, there is wide-eyed potential growth in the LNG market.

"There are also high barriers to entry in its transportation since it requires huge investments in loading and reliquification terminals for highly specialized ships. Given the support of its parent company -- Teekay Corp. -- Teekay LNG Partners is a force far larger than its relatively small size would have your believe at first blush.

"The company's growth is virtually assured for years to come due to the imbalance in the geographic distribution of reserves and consumers of natural gas. Teekay LNG Partners, yielding 7.7%, is a publicly-traded master limited partnership, which means you should look into the peculiarities of tax treatment of distributions."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Top Picks 2007: Vivian Lewis travels on DryShips

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) is the top speculative idea for 2007 from Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing. She notes, "The company is an operator of a drybulk cargo fleet, and produced no more negative surprises with its unaudited financial and operating results for the third quarter.

"True, there was a net loss of $9.4 million (a loss of 28 cents per share) from Forward Freight Agreement losses previously announced. They were made by the now-fired CFO early in 2006. He disastrously misjudged the drybulk charter rates trend.

"His replacement, Gregory Zikos, a lawyer, MBA, and investment banker, has just been named CFO and to the DRYS board. Meanwhile, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a 'buy' on DRYS, forecasting 2006 earnings at $2.24 and 2007 at $2.15, below earlier estimates but with more confidence. Cantor's target is $16.

"Apart from these losses, the rest of the quarter was within the norms of highly leveraged Greek shipping companies, and net income in the quarter would have been 50 cents per share.

"Meanwhile, Dryships' major shareholders (led by George Economou) reinvested the 20 cent per share dividend payment they were scheduled to receive in October, in the amount of about $3.1 million, in DryShips shares. For speculative investors, we consider the stock a strong buy."

To see Vivian's favorite conservative global idea for 2007, click here.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 05:33 PM

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