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Under Armour (UA) a tall short

Fitness apparel maker Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) has had an amazing run so far, but the question now being asked is whether or not that run is over -- and it looks like 37% of investors believe it just might be.

Here's a quick history lesson on Under Armour. The stock went public in November of 2005 and traded at about $25. Since then the stock has steadily climbed to its current price of $64.38, or a gain of about 155%. Wow.

However, Under Armour is now at a point where investors are having a tough time believing this bullish run will continue. The Baltimore Sun highlighted the dilemma in this morning's paper, pointing out that 37% of UA's stock is owned by short sellers -- good enough to make Under Armour the 25th largest short sold company on the New York Stock Exchange.

The 37% of doubters seem to have an awfully good point here, at least at this price point (I'd hate to think of the price points that some of them got in at). Retailers reported disappointing sales for the month of July, another sign of the weakening consumer and overall economy, amid the market's current volatility. It's just not advisable to be long a stock like Under Armour right now, not with such a large red flag being raised.

Dear Jim Cramer: Why we don't like you

I was invited to comment on an article in the New York Times about Jim Cramer and his apparent inability to fully grasp why so many of us don't like him. The piece serves to give grand exposure to one of the main reasons that I myself don't like him. Come with me now on a short tour of words.

The first word I'd like to address is "torpedo". That is the word which Cramer used to define wealth building as a hedge fund manager. It works like this: Find a stock which is heavily overweight with little support, and sell it short. Organize you buddies to your way of thinking, then short more shares to send the longs scampering. Then move in your bears and suck up your bets.

Next, let's move to Jim's claim that his television show has, "allowed me to express my innate insanity, in all its glory, to everyone who might be interested." That's a fine statement for any individual who is willing to stand by it but Cramer also stated, "there seems to be a market for this kind of idiocy." So he flaunts his ability to act like a goon but then comes back to indicate that it really does go against his grain.

Then the man issues a statement as poignant as, "I remain completely and utterly repulsive to myself... I'm an arrogant jerk." Be that as it may, someone really should send that man for some counseling. If I'm not mistaken, that statement (or something similar) is warned about within the first three chapters of the psychology text book How To Recognize Suicide Bait . Add an additional quip such as "I wake up in a pool of self-loathing", and we have reason to remove the garage door and to take all sharp objects from the house. If I recall my law enforcement schooling, isn't "self loathing" that stuff they make serial killers out of?

Now if Cramer was to read this, and I'm near certain he won't, he'd probably come up with some meandering explanation that I've taken his statements out of context and that his words weren't meant as literal. Therein lies the single biggest reason why I cannot stand Jim Cramer. He has proven to me in plain fact and by his own text that you simply cannot trust one word that comes out of his mouth. Yeah, he's rich all right, but at what cost?

Time Warner short interest declined, others mixed

Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) has seen another drop in its short interest, the amount of shares that are listed as "Sold Short" by the NYSE. The February reading of 65.87 million shares short fell in March down to 62.794 million shares (March 15). Interestingly enough, the shares were actually lower: on the February 15 cutoff date, TWX shares were at $21.59, and on March 15 the stock was at $19.44. It also formally completed the spin-off in Time Warner Cable (TWC).

Unfortunately, there is no information available for Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) as of yet since it just started trading.

The January short interest in TWX was as high as 84.5 million shares. For comparison: TWX had 47 million shares in its short interest last August 15, 50.4 million on September 15, and 67.5 million in October. November was the first decline, to 66.25 million shares, but that was the only declining month since August.

This new reading gives a days-to-cover ratio of only 2.6 days. Now that shareholders don't have to worry about Carl Icahn unloading a few days' worth of trading volume all at once and now that the spin-off arbitrageurs for the TWX-TWC are out of the name, this drop in short interest makes sense.

How does this compare to other names? General Electric (NYSE:GE) short interest rose 20 million shares to 46 million in March; Home Depot (NYSE:HD) saw short interest fall to 36 million shares from 72 million; News Corp.'s (NYSE:NWS) short interest increased from 19.55 million shares to 20.94 million shares.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 04:44 AM

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