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Posts with tag ShortSqueeze

lululemon smacked with price-target cut ahead of earnings

Two days before its second-quarter earnings report, lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) was hit this morning with a steep price-target cut. RBC slashed its price target on LULU from $47 to $30, noting "a 200 basis-point increase in our cost of equity assumption." The analysts tempered their bearish note by reiterating an Outperform rating on the shares.

The brokerage firm's downwardly revised target represents a 64% premium to the stock's closing price Monday. By contrast, the average 12-month price target on LULU is $39.72, according to Thomson Financial. This consensus estimate is 117% higher than yesterday's close, which seems to indicate that further price-target cuts could be in the offing, particularly if second-quarter earnings fail to impress.

During the past four quarters, First Call reports that lululemon has met or exceeded analysts' per-share profit expectations every time. However, it's safe to say that nobody on Wall Street was particularly impressed by LULU's last quarterly earnings report. Since the company announced inline earnings of 12 cents per share on June 2, its shares have shed 43% of their value. Even more compelling, institutional investors have reduced their stake in LULU by a net total of 5% since last quarter.

Continue reading lululemon smacked with price-target cut ahead of earnings

Will short squeeze send JetBlue soaring?

With surging crude oil prices, and a slower economy, airline stocks don't rank high on investor wish lists. You don't hear colleagues standing around the water cooler singing the praises of the airlines. So what would make a sane investor contemplate purchasing an airline stock? I am not sure myself but if you take a long look at JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU), you may feel like throwing the dice.

Mark Kreiger at SeekingAlpha.com has a really good analysis of why JetBlue stock is compelling. He says, " The airlines are responding to the fuel crises by doing all the right things such as utilizing fuel hedging programs, initiating capacity reductions and reducing overall costs."

Kreiger singles out JetBlue because their Q1'08 report soundly beat analyst estimates. The company has $1 billion in cash and has a book value of $6. Well above the approximately $4.50 price per share. More interesting is a potential short squeeze setting up on the stock. Kreiger analyzes this further at the site, and it's worth a close read.

If you believe that at some point crude prices will drop, and you are looking for a way to play that drop, you potentially may want to do some research on JetBlue.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/27/08.

Time to bet against Amazon?

Online retailer Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported a blowout quarter last night, sending the stock flying 20%. While the quarter was certainly solid, and Amazon is a great company, I might take a bearish view of the stock as a short-term trader.

The Amazon rally had so much power primarily as a result of short sellers being forced to cover their positions. I've covered the topic of short squeezes before, but it's enough to say here that they occur when short positions are forced to cover, via buying the stock. In doing so, they send the stock higher.

As a result, I think this Amazon rally is set to subside in the short-term as the shorts are done covering their positions. If I was putting on a trade here I'd be buying some August puts in the $80-85 range.

Don't get me wrong, Amazon is a great company, but the shorts closing their positions is sending the stock flying simply because of a demand shock. I'd be fading Amazon's stock here.

Why you should follow short interest

In many of my posts I reference the short interest in a given stock -- a factor I consider to be pretty important, especially if it's a trade that I'm looking into.

Basically, the short interest in a stock is exactly what it sounds like -- the amount of "short" positions (bets against a stock) versus the float of a stock. For those who are unfamiliar with shorting, traders borrow shares to sell, that they don't already own, to effectively create a negative bet on the stock's price. Essentially, it's the exact opposite of a long position, but one can't always establish a short position -- sometimes a borrow can't be found.

Moving along on the same opposite of long theme, to end (cover) a short position, the trader must buy the stock, instead of the selling necessary to close a long position.

So why does this matter? Because if a stock has a large short position, there's a good possibility the stock could move higher as a result of shorts closing their positions. That's why I tend to say "if this stock has good news, it will fly" and why I told people interested in betting against Under Armour's (NYSE: UA) long term potential that I thought hedging this quarter is a good idea in case its stock sees a short squeeze.

Continue reading Why you should follow short interest

eBay closing bell: Finally an up day!

It wasn't a huge percentage gainer, but at least it was in the right direction. After five trading days of losses in a row, eBay shares finally gained some lost ground today. They gained 51 cents, or 1.49%, to close at $34.73.

Seems like investors must have agreed with our morning post pointing out that eBay's stock could be a good deal here. Too bad the shares have slipped 19 cents in after-hours trading (as of 6 p.m.). But that could be temporary.

Be sure to check out the comment on the post. That reader agrees with Sarah and notes a lot of short selling is going on. If there is a sudden spike in the share price, we'll have to figure he was right and a short squeeze is underway. Now, that would be fun!

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DJIA+494.138,046.42
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S&P 500+47.59800.03

Last updated: November 22, 2008: 01:44 PM

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