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Option update: GOOG straddle suggests risk into earnings per share as GOOG at record

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) recently trading up $15.29 to $609.20.


GOOG is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) on October 18th. GOOG October at the money 580 straddle is priced at $32.10. GOOG October option implied volatility of 38 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) CEO Glenn Murphy hosted a meeting with analysts on October 5th.

Smith Barney says "Mr. Murphy is focused on making the company gets an adequate return on its investments. This includes a focus on the expense of the business. We suspect there will be continued focus on moderating the cost structure and assessing various cost components, including marketing. We think the real estate portfolio is under review." GPS over all option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting flat price risk.


Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Bambi Francisco leaves MarketWatch under a cloud

MarketWatch's tech diva Bambi Francisco left the Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ) Web site late Friday after questions were raised about her financial interest in Vator.TV, a web site that features video interviews with technology executives.

Stories in CNET and The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Francisco regularly wrote about companies that appeared on Vator.TV or had dealings with backer Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal who is now a venture capitalist. Most news organizations forbid journalists from writing about companies in which they have a financial interest.

MarketWatch made an exception for Francisco, who is well-known in Silicon Valley. David Calloway, the editor-in-chief of the site, told CNET that he told Francisco to avoid writing about Vator.TV and the companies that use the service.

That agreement that was doomed to fail since Vator.TV interviewed tech executives and Francisco did the same thing for MarketWatch. Her bosses should have realized that arrangement wasn't working before other news agencies pointed that out to them.

Even though several hours before filing her final column, Francisco told the tech news service that she did nothing wrong, her departure was unavoidable. Advertisers won't pay top rates to advertise with news organizations whose credibility is in question.

Dow Jones deserves some credit for not sweeping this matter under the rug the way that CNBC did with the Maria Bartiromo episode.

Continue reading Bambi Francisco leaves MarketWatch under a cloud

MarketWatch's Bambi Francisco is in trouble

MarketWatch technology columnist Bambi Francisco is the Dow Jones & Co.'s (NYSE: DJ) website's answer to CNBC's Maria Bartiromo. Now it looks like she's followed the ethical path blazed by the Money Honey.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription) today reported that Francisco invested in Vator.TV, a video platform that links entrepreneurs with venture capitalists. Dow Jones reporters are allowed to invest in whatever they want to, provided that they don't use their position to further their own interests.

MarketWatch executive editor David Calloway said he approved of Francisco's investment under the condition that she "not write about that company, its investors, or the companies using Vator.TV," the Journal said.

That didn't happen.

In January, Francisco posted an interview with a company called PreFound, which had previously uploaded a video on Vator, and in March wrote an item about Helio, which had uploaded a video on Vator, according to the Journal. Four days she wrote about Friendster, the social networking site posted a video on Vator.TV, the paper said.

Francisco has her own personal blog in which she has a video blog called Vator Reports, which she described as
"a show on innovation, based on the many innovative ideas and businesses Peter Thiel and I are seeing on the vator.tv site."

Thiel is the co-founder of PayPal and also an investor in Vator.TV. He's also a backer of Facebook, which Francisco also wrote about. Her bosses apparently never bothered to look on her site or Valleywag, which had this story in November.

Most journalists would have been fired for doing what she did. But Francisco, like Bartiromo, isn't like most journalists. It will be interesting to see what if any punishment she gets from Dow Jones.

YouTube co-founders got more than double what BusinessWeek predicted

Chad Hurley and Steve Chen, who founded YouTube, filed plans yesterday to sell 3.2 million shares of Google Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG) , which acquired the video-sharing service in November. You didn't have to be much of a psychic to see this one coming.

The jury is still out on whether Google overpaid for a company that hasn't made a nickel in profit or made the savviest acquisition in the history business. So far, YouTube seems to be worth the considerable headaches it's causing the Mountain View, Calif.-based company.

Fights over copyrighted material will be worked out. Competitors will emerge, but like with Google they will have a tough time. Once someone's media habits are established, they are really hard to change. A competitive video-sharing site will need to be orders of magnitude better than YouTube if it stands a chance.

But thanks to YouTube, every entrepreneur in Silicon Valley thinks their money-losing venture is worth 10 times more than it was before the Google acquisition was announced. The media hasn't helped much either. A much-derided story in BusinessWeek called "Valley Boys" made the case that every company connected to that awful buzzword Web 2.0., such as the article-rating site Digg, was worth big money.

"So far, Digg is breaking even on an estimated $3 million annually in revenues," the story said. "Nonetheless, people in the know say Digg is easily worth $200 million."

That math may sound dubious and sourcing a bit murky , but that same article said that YouTube "could easily fetch $500 million." That prediction made in August was way off. Three months later, Google bought YouTube for $1.65 billion.



IBM, Cisco to Power-Up Free Wi-Fi

cisco Two titans of tech Cisco and IBM, are in a generous mood. And that's good news for citizens of Silicon Valley.

The two companies plan to shell-out up to $270 million to provide free Wi-Fi services to Silicon Valley, which is about 1,500 square miles. And it will certainly have its challenges. Try getting 42 cities with roughly 2.4 million residents to work together.

What's the motivation for this deal? Well it's good marketing. It also can be, in a way, a laboratory for experimentation. After all Silicon Valley is the center of the universe for technology, right?

One interesting twist is the involvement of SeaKay, which is a nonprofit that helps provide technology to low-income communities.

I interviewed Craig Settles, who is the author of the book Fighting the Good Fight for Municipal Wireless. According to him: "One thing that will be interesting to watch here is the influence that SeaKay has on the funding model that gets adopted in these municipalities. SeaKay has been an early-on advocate of finding corporate and philanthropic organizations to sponsor muni networks. I believe this approach has significant merit, and is a much more viable financial approach than relying heavily on banner ads to fund network build-outs and operations. If the partnership doesn't smother them - the company only has a handful of people - SeaKay will get a lot of other cities to view sponsorships in a credible light."

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 12:43 AM

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