In a recent post on his personal blog, trader Timothy Sykes told investors to "respect the hype" in six particular penny stocks. This perspective runs in-line with Tim's philosophy that investing in penny stocks is a probability game technical analysis is the best way to play. Although I'm sure money can be made by playing the greater fool theory, after looking at some of Tim's picks, I have concluded that the risks surrounding one of them -- BioSolar (OTC BB: BSRC) -- are enormous.
BioSolar is currently being "pumped" by Beacon Research according to Sykes, and we should all "respect the pump," he argues. While I understand short-term traders try to profit from quick share price moves in these sort of companies, this situation seems way too risky for the average trader or investor.
My main concerns: 1) Beacon Equity's report makes several outlandish assumptions, 2) the company's CEO appears to have ties to other penny stocks (he did not deny those claims via my recent email exchange with him), and 3) I'm highly skeptical of BioSolar's ability to create new technologies for a variety of reasons.
The purpose of this piece is to raise important issues any potential investor should see before investing in BioSolar. I have no position (long or short) in this company, I am not accusing BioSolar or its executives of perpetrating a fraud, and I am not personally aware of any short sellers involved in this stock.
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Trina Solar (TSL) shining brightly
There are a whole lot of things to like right now about Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL), the Chinese manufacturer of solar modules. The stock opened the year at $18.86 and closed Wednesday, August 8, at $62.08. Not a bad run up. Yes, the company is basically a start up, being in production only since 2004, and investors must be able to tolerate a high level of risk with patience. But the company is expanding on a variety of fronts while still maintaining a healthy enough balance sheet. Trina Solar 1Q 2007 earnings release back in May indicated a very positive investment scenario (the 2Q release is scheduled for August 23).
Despite the fact that the 1Q figures pertained to the winter quarter, generally a slow time for solar technology companies, Trina Solar posted a 10% increase in net revenues, to $42.5 million, from the previous quarter, but a staggering 194% (not a typo) increase from 1Q 2006. Gross profits from the quarter increased 5.3% to $9.5 million, and net income increased 7.3% to $4.7 million. Bear in mind Trina Solar posted these figures despite higher prices for raw materials and a decline in per unit price. Demand for solar technology continues unabated. Trina Solar shipped 17% more units by volume in 1Q 2007 than in 4Q 2006. That increase in volume meant Trina Solar produced and shipped 300% more solar watts in 1Q 2007 than 1Q 2006, and has plans to accelerate increases in both unit and watt volume.
Trina Solar is still in a rapid expansion phase, as is only to be expected from a company dealing in newer forms of technology. The company recently completed testing on its new line of increasing efficient solar modules and plans to market these modules to new and existing customers in Germany, Spain and Italy. At full manufacturing capacity, Trina Solar expects to produce 50 million solar watts with this product line. CEO Jifan Gao forecasts that Trina Solar will ship 87-80 million watts worth of solar modules in FY 2008, generating net revenues in the $270-$300 million range. Perhaps the wider investment community will hear of Trina Solar during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.



