Sun Microsystems, Inc. (NASDAQ:SUNW), which makes computer servers and the software to run them, is clawing its way back to profitability. The company has lost more than $5 billion since the dot-com collapse, but is expected to break even when it announces second quarter 2007 results the afternoon of Jan. 23. For all of its 2007 fiscal year, it is forecast to earn 6 cents per share.
Three months ago, when Sun reported earnings for its fiscal first quarter, it was expected to post a loss of 4 cents. Instead, it it reported a loss of only 1 cent. Can it surprise to that extent again this quarter? Investors don't seem to think so.
Sun announced a deal today to start using chips from Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), instead of just Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD). In return, Intel will endorse Sun's operating system, Solaris. Even though analysts and pundits characterized the alliance as a major win for Sun (as well as Intel), Sun's stock fell. As of 2:30 p.m., it was down 4 cents to $5.73.
Wall Street is negative on the stock, with analysts' consensus rating a Hold, according to Thomson. Analysts are skeptical since most of Sun's financial improvement has come as a result of acquisitions and cost-cutting.
This quarter, analysts will be looking for more organic growth in reported results. According to TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required), analysts expect revenues of $3.52 billion, up from $3.2 billion last quarter. Sun faces daunting competitive pressure as the cost of its products remain high. Analysts still need to be convinced that Sun can deal with the pricing pressure.
Investors may still be hoping for the best. After all, the stock has climbed a wall of worry in the past six months. The shares are up about 50% from a July, 2006 low of $3.74 to a current $5.74.
Now Wall Street is concerned that increase leaves little room for more upside from here. But if Sun can surprise again tomorrow, there may be more gains ahead.
Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.