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Option Update: Volatility for stocks with exposure to lower commodity prices

Anglogold (NYSE: AU) closed at $27.47 Thursday. Gold is recently down 3.11% to $789.20 according to Bloomberg. AU September option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) closed at $33.93 Thursday. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.64% to $113.37. VLO September option implied volatility of 53 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) closed at $24 Thursday. Copper is recently down 3.80% to 326 according to Bloomberg. PCU September option implied volatility of 53 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Archer Daniels (NYSE: ADM) closed at $26.62 Thursday. Corn futures are recently down 3.38% to 557.75, Soybean futures are down 2.59% to 1241 according to Track Data. ADM September option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst downgrades: SUN, RYAAY, HBC, MPP, PCU, CNH and HBC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Ryanair and HSBC Holdings were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Underweight from Neutral citing expected margin pressure due to high leverage to sweet crude. Goldman also downgraded shares of Sunoco to Neutral from Buy.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) to Sell from Hold as they believe the European airlines sector will trade well below book value until the companies deal with higher oil prices.
  • UBS cut HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the potential for higher losses at the company's household unit and weak performance at its U.S. bank.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Broadpoint lowered MTS Medication (NYSE: MPP) to Neutral from Strong Buy.
  • HSBC cut Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) to Neutral from Overweight.
  • Goldman downgraded CNH Global (NYSE: CNH) to Neutral from Buy and PetroChina (PTR) to Sell from Buy.

Southern Peru (PCU) mines locally, but sells globally

During a period of persistent demand for minerals/commodities, considering a mining company or two makes a great deal of sense, and among these Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) is worth an evaluation.

Southern Peru is one of the largest copper mining companies in the world, and also is a large producer of molybdenum, silver and zinc. With operations in Mexico, Peru and Chile, PCU has seen steady demand for its mined products from burgeoning Asia, as well as from buyers in Europe and the Americas.

Further, although period labor strikes have lowered production in the past, PCU has been able to keep production at acceptable levels, and that fact, combined strong demand for copper, along with the company's 44.9 million proven copper reserves, make PCU an inviting play.

The risks? As one might realize, PCU sells a great deal of copper to China, and if China substantially lowers its copper purchases as it started to do so this summer, copper prices would begin to soften, hurting PCU's results. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for PCU are $9.15/$10.24.

The First Call mean rating for PCU is: Hold. (8 firms.) Mean 2007 target: $109.50. (high: $135, low: $59.80.)

Stock Analysis: Southern Peru Copper is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from PCU's shares. Sell / Stop Loss: $95.

IMF report points to multi-polar economy

The thesis that the global economy is moving toward a multi-polar world, as opposed to one driven primarily by U.S. economic growth, was reinforced Wednesday when the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2007 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.9%, while underscoring that it expects the global economy to grow at a much higher 4.9% rate.

For much of the modern industrial area, slow growth in the U.S. meant slow growth for most of the developed world. The relationship helped spawn the economic adage, "When the U.S. economy catches a cold, the world catches pneumonia."

That adage is being tested today, at the dawn of the globalization era, because in 2007 the IMF predicts that every major economic zone in Europe and Asia will grow faster than the U.S. economy in 2007.

Continue reading IMF report points to multi-polar economy

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 02:55 PM

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