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Investors in developing countries no doubt wonder which countries that issue debt are safe and which ones could default. CMA Datavision, a subsidiary of CME, has put together the "Sovereign Risk Monitor."
The Risk Monitor uses five-year credit default swaps (CDSs) and ranks the countries according to volatility. It uses the percent of change to determine the ranking of these countries. The new index is called the cumulative possibility of default (CPD). If, for example, a country has a 20% CPD, it has a one in five chance of defaulting in the next five years. Also included is their most recent credit rating.
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