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Don't get down on the farm -- Archer Daniels is a great buy

With banking stocks getting crushed in the first few trading days of 2009, is there anywhere to hide?

For those looking to buy stocks, I provided a list of Top 10 Stocks for 2009. You won't find any financial stocks on the list.

Instead, I targeted a few themes that I believed would do well for varying reasons. One theme that I am particularly keen on is agriculture.

In a world that is full of fraud, bank collapses and historically low interest rates, I want to have some defense in any long recommendation.

The thing that makes agriculture so attractive is that the hedge fund maniacs turned this once boring space into the thrill ride of a lifetime. After a roller-coaster year, many great names in the space can be had for cheap prices.

One of the names on the list just got a whole lot cheaper.

Continue reading Don't get down on the farm -- Archer Daniels is a great buy

In farms, as on Wall Street, prices drop

Farmers whose families have been working the land for generations should be called in to advise new Wall Street traders every year. Because in farm life is the hardscrabble reality of boom-and-bust cycles. When prices went sky-high for wheat, corn and soybeans over the past years, you did not see growers spending their wealth on fast pickup trucks and fancy overalls; no, they kept telling reporters and economists that this wasn't going to last.

They were right. Wheat, which had hovered for years around $4 a bushel, had risen to $10 and is now flattening at $5; less than the current cost in fuel, seed and fertilizer to grow it. Farmers like Jimmy Wayne Kinder, who held back their wheat hoping to sell at the top of the market, are "kicking" themselves, and demonstrating that they, too, have an emotional connection to their holdings and have trouble letting go even in the face of overwhelming evidence that it's time to sell. As the prices fell, farmers waited for a rebound that never came.

Farmland was hot, too, with speculative buyers purchasing Midwest real estate for prices nearing $1,000 an acre, the record set in the 1970s. Now they're back around $500 and farmers are recalling lessons the traders never have time to learn: patience. If automakers, mortgage lenders, and Wall Street firms could learn this lesson; scrimping and saving in the down economies but not behaving like kings in the boom times; perhaps bailouts wouldn't be required.

It's interesting, too, that the article doesn't mention another reality of the farmers' market forces; as demand for conventionally-grown wheat, corn and soy drops, demand for organically- and sustainably-grown meats, produce and grains is rising. I plan to stand in line at 9 a.m. Sunday morning with my three boys for the chance at paying $60 for an heirloom turkey raised by a farmer I know; I've cut out breakfast cereal and alcohol from my budget so I can pay more at the farmer's market. Perhaps the American economy isn't collapsing, but returning back to a more sensible place; where friendly, interdependent, local, sustainable economies thrive and the global economy is a distant memory.

Chasing Value: 40% growth, P/E 8 -- Bunge Ltd.

Analysts have been negative on the agri-business processing sector recently, but the stocks have been shedding value for two months and they may have to reconsider. Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is delivering 42% growth according to Smart Money.

The stock is down 16% from my original post recommending it for 2008 and it is trading down more this morning. However, I have not changed my opinion about the prospects of the company and my original rational has remained solid despite the wild swings in the stock over the past few months.

Last year when I posted Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world it looked like there was no downside, and even though it is disappointing to see the stock down now, all I can say is the investment opportunity is even better. As they are a leading producer of soy and soy products, how can one resist this level of growth at a P/E of 8, half the market average?

Continue reading Chasing Value: 40% growth, P/E 8 -- Bunge Ltd.

Option update 9-28-07: Mosaic and Potash at record numbers on strong fertilizer demand

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) volatility elevated as MOS at record high into EPS.


MOS, a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, was spun out of Cargill in 2004. MOS is recently up 10 cents to $53.35. MOS is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) on October 9th. MOS October option implied volatility of 52 was above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (NYSE: POT) volatility elevated as POT at record high on grain price rally:

POT, the world's largest fertilizer enterprise, by capacity, was recently up $1.43 to $105.58. SBSH says "Potash shortages possible in 2008." SBSH goes on to say "we think high prices for wheat and corn will send a signal to farmers in developing countries like China to increase Potash application rates." POT over all option implied volatility of 46 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.


Option update provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 04:00 AM

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