One way investors/readers could characterize the current environment is as a world filled with concerns.
Concern about the U.S. housing sector. Concern about declining U.S. disposable income. Concerning about slowing GDP growth in Europe and Asia. Concern about the Yankees not winning the American League pennant.
O.K., that last item was a purely subjective, parochial one, but you get the point: there's concern that global economic conditions are worsening, not improving.
Europe's GDP is latest focal point
Further, while emerging markets in Asia, led by China and India, have been the growth story of the decade, the region really sending a chill up economists' -- business executives' -- spines is Europe, so says economist Glen Langan.
"Up through July we had seen weakness in Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, and the investment community's response was one of 'no big deal, they are not the major growth regions, anyway,'" Langan said. "But now there's signs of slowing in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, and nearly every demand-side indicator is in retreat. It's a pronounced psychological shift, no question."
American Airlines, British Air and Spain's Iberia have signed a joint business agreement on flights between North America and Europe, American Airlines announced Thursday.
American (NYSE: AMR) added that the three airlines plan to file for global antitrust immunity from U.S. officials and will also apply from the same in Europe.
Under the deal announced Thursday, the three airlines will cooperate commercially on flights between the United States zone (encompassing Canada and Mexico) and the European Union (including Switzerland and Norway), while continuing to operate as separate, legal companies.
Analyst: 'an absolute, positive, must deal'
Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday rival competitors may argue that the deal will reduce competition internationally, but in Bauer's interpretation the agreement is "an absolute, positive, must deal," due to the changing nature of flight and air travel.
"The reality is, we're becoming a global travel marketplace, not just a national one, one that will eventually be accessible to everyone, and in this decade the key players will compete on transcontinental and global routes," Bauer said. "That means the carriers need global scale and the American-British Air-Iberia deal accomplishes that. It is an absolute, positive, must deal." (Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in any airline. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines.)
American drivers, weighed-down by record-high gasoline prices, may have an unlikely ally as they seek policy responses to address the nation's current energy problems. The Associated Press reports that European drivers are joining them in fighting for lower energy costs
Drivers of private and commercial vehicles have staged protests and related demonstrations in France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal, among other European countries, as drivers deal with prices that have rocketed to the $8-10 per gallon range. In France, last week, more than 200 farmers and truck drivers blocked a fuel depot in Villette-de-Vienne, The New York Timesreported.
The four-year rise in oil prices that has reduced U.S. disposable income has not exempted Europe. Given higher per gallon taxes across much of the continent, Europe may become the first major economic region in the world to see an average $10 per gallon gasoline price, if current trends continue. Taxes in Europe comprise 40-60% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data; in the United States taxes account for about 12% of gasoline's retail price.
Could ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet be compelled to modify his legendary hawkish stance regarding inflation?
He might, if sentiment against the ECB inflation target continues to mount. Bloomberg News Tuesday quoted London-based Morgan Stanley co-chief economist Joachim Fels as concluding that the ECB's goal of lowering inflation below 2% as unachievable and not credible. "The ECB's keeping up a fiction," Fels said, adding that the ECB should adjust the target.
As part of an effort to jump-start a U.S. economy slowed to a crawl by the nation's worst housing recession in more than 15 years, and to prevent a global economic slowdown, the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 325 basis points to 2% in the past year. Further, to stave off a potential regional and global slowdown, the Bank of England has cut its key rate three times to 5%.
In an article I wrote yesterday, entitled Hitting the skids in Florida, I examined the fallout of depressed real estate prices and how folks are coping with a new reality. Today, the FT has an article about how the changes in global real estate are affecting places like Spain.
In Spain's Property Market Headed for a Fall, the FT examines financial conditions in Spain that are leading to a perfect storm. The story cites tightening credit conditions (ie, it's harder to borrow money), the oversupply of houses, and rampant price inflation as leading to a precarious present for Spanish residents. Spanish prices have dropped almost 30% from where they were at this time last year.
Sound familiar?
We're suffering from some of the same malaise but I have to say, that after a slow going, our Federal Reserve has moved quickly and decisively to address some of the same issues on American soil.
The difference between the Spanish situation and our own appears to be government intervention. Where our Federal Reserve has added a lot of liquidity into ailing banks, lowered interest rates, and even orchestrated a bailout, Spain's Socialist government seems focused on job retraining and stepping up public works projects.
We'll see where this all pans out.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
Airbus announced Wednesday that it beat rival Boeing in 2007 deliveries but trailed it in new orders.
Airbus said it delivered 453 planes to Boeing's 441 in 2007, according to a company statement. Meanwhile, Boeing (NYSE: BA) bested European-based Airbus in 2007 net new orders, 1,413-1,341. Airbus' 2007 delivery total was up 19 from 2006's 434. Airbus said it expects to deliver 470 planes in 2008.
"2007 was a challenging year but also successful year for Airbus," Airbus President and CEO Tom Enders said. "We were successful in the market and mastered the industrial challenges of the production ramp up, the timely delivery of the first A380, and the implementation of the Airbus Power 8 turn-around program. 2008 will be as challenging on all fronts. But I am sure that, with the dedication of our people and all involved, we shall master them. On the commercial side, I anticipate that our order intake will be above our deliveries."
Delay city
Airbus has been plagued by a series of production setbacks as it rolls-out two new commercial aircraft deemed critical to the aerospace giant's early 21st century aviation strategy: the 500-seat A380 superjumbo jet and the A350.
Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) signed an agreement with the UGT Union in Spain today, according to the Associated Press. The agreement will allow Ford to build three new small- and mid-sized cars in its Almussafes plant in Spain, with an annual production target of 350,000 cars. The union has agreed to keep labor costs low in effort to keep the plant competitive with its European rivals.
The announcement comes at a time when automakers are doing everything they can to expand their global operations outside of the United States.
Aleo Solar (Other OTC: AEORF) has negotiated a distribution deal with German thin-film solar module manufacturer Johanna Solar Technology. The five year agreement gives Aleo distribution rights for up to 80% of Johanna's thin-film solar modules. Aleo is widely recognized and well established in the manufacturing and marketing of solar technology.
Jeroen Haberland, executive director of Johanna Solar Technology, indicates confidence in Aleo Solar's marketing capabilities as the two companies set the stage for debut of Johanna's thin-film technology at the 22nd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference in Italy this September. Haberland stated, "We are glad to have in Aleo Solar a long-established company on our side."
Aleo Solar has been growing steadily in both Germany and Spain with indications being that the company is proving itself by stepping outside the boundaries of their subsidized German environment. This gives credence to the idea that solar technologies are forcefully coming into their own age and that solar energy will continue to develop as a workable and profitable energy provision solution. Just this past May, Aleo announced the opening of a new production facility near Barcelona Spain by its subsidiary, Aleo Solar España. In 2006, Aleo was responsible for providing and assisting in the installation of 64 megawatts of solar electrical generation capacity in Spain.
David Malpass of Bear Stearns wrote a great op-ed piece on how to interpret the trade deficit. The full article can be found on the Forbes Digital Rules blog.
Here are some some of his thoughts:
The imbalance, the trade deficit and related capital inflow all link the faster-growing U.S. with other aging, slower-growing economies. They are a reflection of growth in the U.S., not weakness.
Despite our trade deficit and other countries' trade surpluses, the U.S. economy has created 9.3 million new jobs since the 2001 recession, compared with 360,000 jobs in Japan and 1.1 million jobs in the European zone, excluding Spain.
Speaking of Spain -- like the U.S., Spain (3.6 million new jobs) and the U.K. (1.3 million new jobs) also ran trade deficits and created jobs rapidly during these last five years.
The recent upswing in the U.S. trade deficit partially reflects the shift in the demographics of the world's large economies. The under-60 population in the U.S. is expected to grow for at least 50 years, whereas the under-60 populations in Japan and Europe is already in a decline and China will also be in a decline within a decade.
We have blogged in the past on how the trade deficit has been misinterpreted by economic pundits for years. In my opinion, David Malpass is one economist who gets it right.
While domestic phone companies battle for market share, non-US firms are building dominant positions in markets considered by many to offer higher growth potential, such as Latin America. And despite their foreign operations, several of these stocks are traded through ADRs on the New York exchange.
John Christy III, editor of the Forbes International Investment Report is a fan of America Movil (NYSE: AMX), the dominant mobile phone company in Mexico, with operations in a dozen other Latin American countries. The company is controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim Helu, the world's third-richest man (following Bill Gates and Warren Buffett).
Says Christy, "American Movil has had a stellar record of growth and profitability over the past five years. With cellular penetration rates in Latin America hovering in the 40% range (versus 90%+ in Europe), there is a lot more room for growth."
The shares have risen 15% since he first added it to his portfolio two months ago, and he cautions that they might pull back. However, he says, "Use dips as an opportunity to scoop up more shares. AMX is trading at less than 15 times next year's consensus earnings forecast of $2.90. With estimated earnings growth running at a 35%+ clip, AMX still looks extremely attractive."
Awww, dawg, it's straight-up whack! Wall Street has just totally "dissed" the company. Wait, is this the stocks blog? Sorry. I just got carried away with Jim Cramer's latest rant. He's discussing World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: WWE), a stock was down for a while. Yet its yield is over 5%.
Cramer interviewed chairman and "third-generation promoter" Vince McMahon on video conference. Cramer asked about WWE's international prospects, and McMahon said that his company's entertainment may be the biggest US export. McMahon said national attendance was actually down at events but the international audience more than makes up for it. Cramer asked McMahon about two movies, McMahon said they have some downside protection and they keep their own intellectual products. He said Spain, Italy, Portugal, Philippines are all growing after recent launches. Cramer said that the future seems brighter than the past and Cramer thinks the dead-money past performance is about to change. He said you should even do a "Mo'm-Back" and buy it before this changes.
Oddly enough, Cramer didn't ask any guidance questions or real financial questions. Maybe that, too, would be whack. WWE traded up 3.2% today, so we'll have to see how it performs on Friday.