Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) will be more conservative in the number of movies it produces in a 12-month period, according to this piece at The Wall Street Journal. As movies are becoming so expensive these days, and studios are becoming increasingly averse to taking on risk in the fickle world of celluloid, the thinking is that fewer investments in theatrical projects will concentrate funds on only the best concepts. These concepts will, in theory, be tentpole productions like The Dark Knight, ones that have enormous franchise potential to spawn sequels and merchandise windfalls and that oftentimes will be based on valuable source material, such as iconic comic-book characters. Sounds great, right?

Only problem is, it's wrong. I've argued this point in the past, and I'm here to argue it again. There's no question that studios such as The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA), News Corporation (NYSE: NWS), General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)'s Universal, and Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) put precious capital at risk every single time they greenlight a project. But there's a huge illogicality at work here. Why would you want to put out less concepts as opposed to more? If the movie industry is such a gamble, wouldn't it be prudent to send more pictures to the marketplace?

The box-office results are in, and I don't think there's any surprise concerning which film took the top honors this Memorial Day. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), took in $126 million over the four-day weekend at domestic theaters, according to Boxofficemojo. Taking into account Thursday showings, Skull has so far grossed about $151 million. These aren't record numbers as far as I know, but they certainly were high enough to displace Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Prince Caspian flick from the number-one position. The movie captured about $28.6 million at the multiplexes, good for second place; up to now, the Narnia sequel has a total tally of around $96 million.

Which is completely unacceptable to Disney shareholders (I'm one of the disappointed, and I wrote about my disappointment last week). Consider that the Memorial Day weekend is done, and that this is the second weekend for the project. To not crack $100 million domestically for a movie brand that was supposed to be strong considering the business that the first Narnia did back in winter 2005 should be troubling to Bob Iger.

At least Iron Man is around to cheer me up. The Marvel (NYSE: MVL) masterpiece is still in the top five at number three and has now enjoyed a $257 million take. I own shares in Marvel, so I'm glad the picture is offering some balance to Disney's relative flop. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) What Happens in Vegas and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Speed Racer took up fourth and fifth place, respectively. I suppose I shouldn't complain; Time Warner shareholders must put up with the fact that Speed Racer hasn't even cracked $40 million yet. Maybe that's the true bomb of the summer.

Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Chronicles of Narnia flick, Prince Caspian, opened on top of the weekend box office to an estimated $56.6 million take at domestic theaters according to Boxofficemojo.com. The media is buzzing with how awful this number is. Well, I'm not sure any of the media outlets I checked actually used the word awful, but I'm using it.

Simply put, the first Chronicles of Narnia movie grossed more than $65 million in its debut weekend, a significantly higher figure than what Caspian captured. Think about this: the first Narnia entry was released in December 2005. Considering that the first film did pretty well, one would have figured that a sequel released a couple years later would have benefited from the high-traffic pre-summer period and that the first weekend would have achieved at least a $70 million+ opening. Never happened. Instead, even though Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man fell to number two, its estimated weekend haul of $31 million seems the bigger achievement by comparison.

So, who's to blame here, if anyone? Should Disney CEO Bob Iger be apologizing to shareholders? Maybe a small apology might be in order. I mean, did any of you out there feel the energy of the marketing campaign behind Caspian? I didn't. Once the early Iron Man buzz left the building, Disney should have rushed in to capitalize on the minds of moviegoers who were now waiting for the next big blockbuster coming down the pike; let's face it, during the summer box-office period, that's what we're programmed to do. Even now, I'm looking forward to the business waiting to be done by Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Disney doesn't have much of a chance to turn Caspian into a super blockbuster if Jones is the hit I think it's going to be. The competition will simply be too much.

I honestly thought Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Speed Racer would take the top spot over the Mother's Day weekend at the domestic box-office marketplace. Thankfully, I was wrong, since I own shares in Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL).

Instead, Marvel's blockbuster Iron Man, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), grabbed the honors. According to estimates at Boxofficemojo.com, Iron Man grossed more than $50 million while Speed Racer drove away with about $20 million, good for second place. Yes, these are estimates, but I'll tell you what, my friends any changes to them later on won't alter the tale of Marvel beating the bigger studio. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) new film, What Happens in Vegas, took in a similar amount to Racer and is currently pegged in third place. While first place is a lock, it's possible that second and third positions will be changed. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Made of Honor and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal comedy Baby Mama were fourth and fifth, respectively.

This was Iron Man's second weekend, and I couldn't be more pleased by its performance. Hopefully, the picture is on its way to grossing at least $250 million domestically; subsequent weekends will get tougher for Marvel as more summer flicks open and gobble up screens and mindshare. For now, though, the company is a superhero. I just hope that the new Hulk, which will be opening soon, is a lot better than the one put out a few years back. For coverage on Marvel's latest earnings report, check out Sheldon Liber's recent piece.

Disclosure: I own shares in General Electric and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.



5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures
The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.

5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros.
Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.