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Is Transformers worthy of a franchise?

Last week I blogged about the premiere of the long-awaited Transformers movie and how Susan Linn, a psychologist who co-founded the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood, said the movie was improperly marketed towards children.

While Ms. Lind's complaint fell on deaf ears, Transformers rocked the box-office this week with $67.6M in the box office in its first weekend and $152.5M worldwide since its opening one-week ago today – beating the original Spider-Man with the biggest first-week revenues for a non-sequel.

The Wall Street Journal believes the Transformers debut, which research firm Merriman Curhan Ford & Co said was nearly twice as strong as the studio's expectations; has a strong chance of hitting $300M in domestic ticket sales.

Could this summer hit become a franchise?

Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount has been without a new franchise in nearly a decade. With key cast members Shia LaBeouf and others already optioned for another movie, will Transformers be their first? The answer has to be yes: Transformers 2 is slated for 2009, according to IMDB.com. Producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura is already in talks with director Michael Bay, who kept the movie down to a $150M price-tag, half the cost of Pirates and Spider-Man sequels.

Paramount has gone without a franchise for ten years and now has the opportunity to have three by 2008. The other potentials: The Spiderwick Chronicles, directed by Mark Waters, and a new version of Star Trek directed by J.J. Abrams, although that's already an established brand name. Sadly, neither of these directors compares to Michael Bay and his re-creation of the Transformers, but the potential for a franchise is there.

While Transformers fans will wait in agony over the next two years for a sequel, Viacom's Paramount looks to be sitting pretty with dreams of being in franchise heaven. Keep an eye on the big screen to find out if Paramount's dreams come ever true.

Evan Almighty's arc just sank

I recently blogged about my concerns if Evan Almighty flopped this weekend.

I, as well as many others, would classify the $32.1 million opening weekend of Evan as a flop. Peter Sanders of the WSJ believes that Evan Almighty was the first "major pothole" in Hollywood's sequel-filled summer. He also put Evan in the same category as Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, by saying May's blockbuster "threequels" were all expected to fall short of their previous domestic sales numbers.

Could that be true? Looking at the numbers, Sanders has a good argument. That's only if you thought sequels should outperform the original. Other than Shrek II, most of the recent sequels made less than its predecessors. Even the Harry Potter franchise couldn't make a sequel that outperformed the $317.5 million earned from Sorcerer's Stone.

Continue reading Evan Almighty's arc just sank

Shrek 3 could bring movie theaters back into favor

Shrek 3 and Spider-Man 3 are coming to a movie theater near you, just as the sector is coming out of an ugly downturn.

Overcapacity and over-leverage had led to an ogre-ish performance causing theater operators to file for bankruptcy or get picked up by private equity.

Now theater companies are going public or emerging from bankruptcy with little fanfare. However, according to Buzz Zaino, long-time great stock picker at Royce Opportunity Fund, it is time to start looking at these stocks again. In Barron's fund-manager interview (subscription required), Zaino said box-office receipts are up 7.2% year-to-date with a summer of good new releases expected to keep the momentum going.

Carmike Cinemas Inc (NASDAQ: CKEC) looks particularly attractive since it has upgraded 75% of its screens to digital, on which, in addition to showing movies, new alternative concepts are expected to generate additional revenue. Other movie chains Zaino likes are Regal Entertainment Group (NYSE: RGC) and Cinemark Holdings Inc (NYSE: CNK).

Expected improvements in box-office receipts should lead to nice incremental EBITDA margins especially for Carmike since its theater upgrade is mostly completed.

Few have mentioned theater stocks as a place to invest in. Zaino is one of the best at find long-forgotten industries as fundamentals are on the upswing. This ogre of an industry appears ready to return some princely profits to shareholder.

Marvel: A breakout buy for Spiderman

Over the past 12 months, Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) has lived up to its name, with the stock climbing from $16 to above $27; the stock is now setting up for a breakout and a rally, says Leo Fasciocco -- a technical analyst who looks specifically for stocks that are breaking out from previous resistance areas.

The editor of the Ticker Tape Digest, explains, "The company's success swings on the strength and marketability of its characters. Net income is poised to rise sharply this year, which suggests accumulation of MVL in anticipation of a move higher."

Marvel publishes and licenses products based on its cartoon characters. Fasciocco notes that the firm lends its more than 5,000 characters (Daredevil, Spider-Man, X-Men) to toy development, publishing, and licensing.

Continue reading Marvel: A breakout buy for Spiderman

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 06:49 AM

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