The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), a distributor of business information and educational materials which counts Scholastic (NASDAQ: SCHL) as a related stock, issued third-quarter results earlier today. Sales contracted over 8%. Net income on a dollar basis dropped almost 14%. Earnings per diluted share decreased a very unlucky 13% to $1.07. At least expectations were taken out. Earnings.com indicates a beat of two pennies for per-share profit.

The declines are pretty understandable. When you think about McGraw-Hill, you understand fairly quickly that the company's business model is tied closely to the economy. Education markets must be tough given all the budget cuts happening in school systems across the country. Plus, spending by administrators is probably done these days very slowly and carefully.

Economist and president of a research firm that bears his name, Andrew Smithers (not related to the Smithers of Mr. Burns fame) is saying our on-fire stock market is set to burn itself out. The S&P 500 Index is overvalued by 40%, he believes, and we can expect a plunge thanks to central bankers restraining themselves on the securities purchases that have pushed the markets up so far so fast. Also, banks are going to need to sell more shares to raise capital and pump up their balance sheets.

If the S&P 500 were to take a 40% dive today, it would fall to 647.76 (based on the Friday close), below the low it recorded in March.

Late Thursday, Standard & Poor's announced a few changes to its U.S. indices. The reason for the changes are that Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) is being acquired by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), leaving an opening in both the S&P 100 and S&P 500 (SPX). I want to focus on the stock that will replace WYE in the SPX, First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR). In after-hours trading, FSLR jumped more than 6% in response to the announcement.

FSLR manufactures solar modules and is a major benefactor of what I like to call the "green rush" that took place during the past two years. FSLR capitalized nicely on the global environmental consciousness revolution last year, ascending as high as the $310 region. Yes, the stock has backed off quite a bit due to the economic crisis, but it could enjoy a bit of a recovery provided it can parlay this latest news into a breach of some overhead resistance.

Since Obama's inauguration, the market seems to have responded negatively to the president's rhetoric, and yesterday was no exception. Within seconds of a White House alert that the president and his chief economic advisers would make an important announcement, stocks headed south.

And by the time that President Obama -- flanked by his team -- began the address at 3:50 p.m. Eastern, the Dow had given up more than 100 points, with investors fearful that the team had decided on a major policy shift.

Despite the poor timing of the White House's news conference, which contained little new information and spooked traders into a flurry of profit-taking, Wednesday's small correction did little to change Tuesday's upside reversal and the probability of further buying.

McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) shares opened lower today, but have rebounded as the day moved on after the European Union Internal Market Commissioner announced that bond and credit rating agencies, including MHP's Standard & Poor's, will face mandatory new European Union regulation as a result of these agencies' roles in the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MHP.

After hitting a one-year high of $71.97 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.91 in March. This morning, MHP opened at $42.87. So far today the stock has hit a low of $42.10 and a high of $43.65. As of 12:00, MHP is trading at $43.60, down $0.13 (-0.3%). The chart for MHPlooks bullish and steady.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 11.1% return in two months as long as MHP is below $50 at August expiration. McGraw-Hill would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money.

MHP hasn't been above $50 since October and has shown resistance around $45 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late-July) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance MHP might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $44 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MHP.

Most investors probably think that when an investment ratings service like Moody's, Standard & Poors or Fitch gives a company, financial institution or security the highest rating of "AAA," it carries the least possible level of risk. Most investors would think that this rating would be reserved for United States Treasuries and only the most secure of companies like Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), or United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS). Actually, this happens to be the case, and these companies are among the very few to receive AAA ratings outside of financial institutions.

So what happened in the case of the Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDOs), where the ratings agencies determined that high-risk securities batched together had a smaller chance of default than the individual securities? Perhaps that is the case, but triple-A? Well, it seems to me that large investment banks knew they needed the AAA ratings to have a marketable security. They went to the ratings agencies that understood this and the agencies created the rational or plausible deniability to support the rating. This may be a bit harsh, but it does seem that the ratings agencies were working in reverse: first establish the rating and then the support for the rating. The ratings services are all heading for cover and many of the previously AAA-rated securities are being re-evaluated.

Over the past few weeks I have seen a bit of skepticism showered on the technology sector. As was noted in a Bloggingstocks post earlier this month, Jim Cramer offered some cautious comments on the group, saying that many stocks were "off limits". I then saw this BusinessWeek article that says Standard & Poor's is calling for a potential 7% to 10% correction in the Nasdaq Composite.

To be sure, this hasn't been a good couple of weeks for individual tech stocks. Companies such as Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD), Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), and Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) have all seen their stocks hit. Some posted lower-than-expected earnings, some warned, and some saw selling despite seemingly decent results. Each stock drop has helped to weigh on the collective psyche of investors. In other words, each individual sell off has fed into the skepticism expressed above.