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Option update: volatility Up as Sheldon Adelson opens Venetian Macao

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) volatility Elevated into Macao Resort Hotel opening. LVS opened the Venetian Macao Resort Hotel today. Sheldon Adelson, chairman & chief executive officer, said "it is no overstatement to say that the opening of Venetian Macao represents a massive paradigm shift for Macao and the future of tourism development in Asia." Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) says "the scale is enormous and the detail impressive." LVS over all option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA) implied volatility Elevated at 43. ASCA, a Las Vegas based gaming and Entertainment Company, is recently down $0.55 to $28.39. ASCA has a market cap of $1.6 billion with long term debt of $878 million. ACSA over all option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Las Vegas Sands, MGM Mirage face new Macau competition

At one time Chinese billionaire Stanley Ho owned the casino business in Macau. But after the Chinese government extended licenses to outside operators such as Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) and MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM), Ho's Sociedad de Jogod de Macau (SJM) casinos have dropped to 63% of the market, much of the loss in the high-roller segment. JPMorgan forecasts SJM's share will drop to about 25% within three years. Although SJM owns 17 casinos in Macau, many are aged, run down, and away from the center of development for the coming mega-casinos on the Cotai Strip.

Now Ho has struck back with his biggest, most opulent casino, the almost $400 million Grand Lisboa Hotel. The ostentatious design, even by casino standards, was inspired by the Faberge egg and built in the form of a golden lotus flower topped with long, frond-like plumes.

The magnitude of the project, while huge in comparison with Ho's earlier casinos, pales in the light of the Galaxy Entertainment's planned Coati Mega Resort, Melco PBL's Crown Macau, the Sands' Macau Venetian Casino Resort and whatever the Virgin Group decides to do with the 20 hectares acres they have purchased.

2006's lush returns only hastened development projects in Macau, but with all the huge investments underway, one has to wonder if the customer base will expand quickly enough to pay off. While new investors offer the glitzy, modern facilities, Ho's fortunes are tied to aged properties. Will the Grand Lisboa be enough to keep him in the game?

MGM Mirage's Ho connection could cause Packer problems

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/21/33994435_b620fc905d.jpg?v=0A Gordian knot of interests tie together the gaming markets of Las Vegas, Macau and future sites for development. A couple of these strands threaten MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM)'s expansion plans.

One end of the knot is in Macau. Billionaire Stanley Ho was in on the ground floor of development there, at one time owning more than three-fourths of all the casinos. His share has dropped substantially with the influx of new developers, including the Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) and Wynn Resorts, Ltd (NASDAQ:WYNN).

Now his son Lawrence Ho is partnering with Australian James Packer to build a new casino, the Crown Macau, scheduled to open this year, as well as another $2 billion complex, the City of Dreams, opening in 2008. Packer, a friend of Steve Wynn of Wynn Resorts, is rumored to be also interested in buying into the Las Vegas market.

At the same time, Lawrence's sister Pansy Ho has partnered with MGM Mirage of Las Vegas to build the new $1 billion MGM Mirage Macau, also opening this year.

How does this add up to trouble for American firms? Under Stanley Ho's leadership, the Ho family was long suspected of having ties to organized crime. This suspicion has caused the children and their partners a great deal of difficulty in gaining permission for developments in other parts of Southeast Asia.

Continue reading MGM Mirage's Ho connection could cause Packer problems

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 02:50 PM

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