BloggingStocks

Starbucks (SBUX) closes Puerto Rico locations

Brent Archer — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:07:00 EST

Filed under: Bad News, Starbucks (SBUX), Options, Technical Analysis

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) shares are falling today after the company announced over the weekend that it will close three of its stores in San Juan, Puerto Rico, admitting that economic times are tough and that perhaps the stores were too close to other Starbucks locations (Gee, you think so?). This might not be the worst thing in the world for the brand if it closes down some locations if it over-expanded, but at the same time, if customers don't come back, we could be seeing the beginnings of another Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD) situation. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SBUX.

After hitting a one-year high of $28.60 in August, the stock hit a one-year low of $15.39 in April. This morning, SBUX opened at $16.19. So far today the stock has hit a low of $15.89 and a high of $16.33. As of 12:30, SBUX is trading at $16.24, down 11 cents(-0.7%). The chart for SBUX looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $20 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in three and a half months as long as SBUX is below $20 at October expiration. SBUX would have to rise by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

SBUX hasn't been above $20 since January and has shown resistance around $17 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance SBUX might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $20 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SBUX.

Starbucks (SBUX) closes Puerto Rico locations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:07:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Starbucks' (SBUX) plan to give away 50 million songs -- not a good sign

Douglas McIntyre — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 05:53:00 EST

Filed under: Deals, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, Apple Inc (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald's (MCD)

As part of a promotion to launch its partnership with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to offer free wireless access to download iTunes songs, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) will give away 50 million songs.

According to Reuters, "from October 2 to November 7 at more than 10,000 U.S. Starbucks locations, customers can receive "Song of the Day" cards redeemable on Apple's iTunes store."

The program may be a good deal for Apple, but it is hard to see why Starbucks would offer the package unless it is trying to drive additional traffic to its stores by paying iTunes for all of the content. If business was robust for the world's largest coffee chain, it is hard to see why it would makes such a large investment.

Apple could be giving away the songs using Starbucks as the marketing medium, but the company hardly needs help driving traffic to iTunes.

The move may well be a signal that Starbucks needs to kick start consumer demand for its core coffee and food products. Competitors like McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) have been taking customers away. Starbucks stock is off more than 20% so far this year.

Giving away iTunes downloads to help bring in customers may not be a good sign.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Starbucks' (SBUX) plan to give away 50 million songs -- not a good sign originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 24 Sep 2007 05:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

McDonald's (MCD) same-store sales on steroids

Douglas McIntyre — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Industry, Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald's (MCD), Yum Brands (YUM)

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) announced that global same-store sales rose 8.1% in August. With 36,000 stores worldwide and annual sales of well over $21 billion, the growth rate is extraordinary. The company's shares are up 2% in premarket trading and the stock could easily break its 52-week high of $53.22.

A food retailer this large growing this fast is likely to be eating someone else's lunch. Shares in Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) and Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) have lagged McDonald's so Wall Street may suspect that their same-store sales will not be as robust.

McDonald's has been clever, and it seems odd that other food and coffee retailers have not matched some of its moves. Many of its stores are open 24-hours. Almost all in the U.S. open at 5 a.m. to catch the early breakfast crowd. The majority of Starbucks open at 6 a.m.

Investors know that there is only so much air in any room. If McDonald's can keep increasing its sales at a rate faster than the competition, it is likely taking share and cutting into revenues at other companies.

There is no way for the likes of Starbucks to shake this perception without showing that its same-store sales can move up close to 10%.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

McDonald's (MCD) same-store sales on steroids originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Sep 2007 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments