Is it possible for the Phoenix to rise out of these over-leveraged, overrated, financial ashes? Can the stock market reverse direction without the Federal Reserve Board taking action and reducing interest rates?

We're all so smart, but at any given moment we might have to don the dunce cap. I am eating humble pie with the rest of you -- worse I'm losing money on a few things (or would be if I sold something) so this is all very real. However, to my fellow long term investors it is all just a blip on the huge screen of investment perspective over time.

Not too long ago I was reading some Cramer stuff regarding how this market would be rising higher through the second half of the year. It used to be that he had plenty of good advice amid his periodic rants, now you have to listen very, very carefully to glean some insight because the ranting and raving have completely dominated and over taken him at times. To the infrequent observer you might think he has lost contol of his senses or even worse. He certainly has no shame.

One of my more knowledgable collegues Georges Yared posted Three reasons the Dow will reach 15,000 by year-end -- and six stocks to buy about a month ago. I do recommend you read the post and there is much to be learned, however, of all the thoughts enumerated the following seems to be the most relevant (and wrong) in today's market.

• "Mortgage market should stabilize: The US markets were trying to decipher the sub-prime mortgage mess back in April, and here in June they are still trying. The issue has not gone away, but the major banks appear to be handling the problem."

Well, the major banks DO NOT seem to be handling the problem. I think the problem is bigger than many of them. And Georges and I have underestimated the fear that has beset the market which promted me to write: Sunday Funnies: Last one out is a rotten egg! As far as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 15,000 by the end of the year, that appears, for now, to be a bit of a stretch.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well -- INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Dow 15,000 by end of the year - yeah, we're all so smart! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Aug 2007 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.